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IMO, the best way to form your opinion about prospects is to take in many different points of view. @mdthompFWFB and the @ProspectsLive team share their commentary and ranking of #stlcards prospects. Take a look! https://t.co/NA2839S4N3
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 31, 2019
Thanks for the post. A different set of eyes leaning towards younger talent. The mysterious Perez #30. Woodford #23…. ouch.
I’m sure it was just a small overlook as he had the right measurements in the capsule, but funny that such a detailed set of reports would still list Seijas as 5′-8″.
I’m shocked that Ivan Herrera doesn’t get more national, and actually Cardsnation, attention. A 19 y/o catcher, putting up great numbers in A+ AND the AFL….. and the catching seems to be above average. The signing bonus wasn’t enough or he would be a top 100 everywhere.
Just my opinions, but you’re all under rating him!!! 🙂 Happy New Year Cards fans!
Just this morning, I posted an article (for subscribers) that details how all of our voters ranked the top 50. In the collective opinion of the members of our community, Herrera is no. 6 in the Cardinals system. (Knizner is no. 3 – a pretty sizable gap.) I don’t know that signing bonus played into their logic, as Knizner didn’t get a lot of money, either, but others who were involved directly may want to comment. That relative position of no. 6 in the system wouldn’t put Herrera in anyone’s top 100.
First of all, thanks, Brian, for bringing this prospect list to everyone’s attention! Pretty good analyses, by and large uncontaminated by the typical typos and grammar gaffes. I’ve never been to that website before, but it’ll be a regular destination for me now.
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“A 19 y/o catcher, putting up great numbers in A+ AND the AFL….. and the catching seems to be above average.”
“Just my opinion, but you’re all under rating him!!! Happy New Year Cards fans!”Happy New Year back at you, ChiTown, and I agree wholeheartedly that Ivan Herrera is wildly underrated. (I have him in roughly the 40-50 range among all prospects.) However, please forgive me if I do feel compelled to slightly amend a couple of your observations. Herrera did put up a great line for Low-A Peoria in 2019 (136 wRC+), but he was just league average at A+ Palm Beach. On the other hand he was only 18 years old for half the season, so the performance overall was indeed truly tremendous for a batter of his age. I share your well-founded enthusiasm for his season.
And he did, just as you say, put up excellent numbers in the Double-A equivalent Arizona Fall League. The thing is, that was barely 40 trips to the plate. Encouraging, yes. But upon reflection maybe not as encouraging as the mere fact that the organization sent him there at all. That’s a lot of faith to show in a young kid catcher, and he did not disappoint.
As for glovework, not so glowing. I don’t think the defense can be deemed acceptable yet, much less above average. The caught stealing was fine & dandy in 2019, at 31% across the two levels during the regular season, then 33% in Arizona. But the errors and passed balls were both a chunk too high for my comfort. And moreover, passed ball rates tend to strongly correlate for good or bad with pitch-blocking skills. So Ivan likely has multiple skills to hone.
But I don’t mean to just throw cold water. Based on everything I’ve seen and read, Herrera is fairly nimble, quite intelligent, extremely determined, and very hard-working. I’m no sports psychologist, but he seems to possess that blend of humility and confidence necessary for pro sports development. So I would say that the potential is certainly there for “above averageness” behind the dish. But he’s not there yet.
I’m a big fan of Kyle Reis’ write-ups at Birds on the Black. He should start his Dirty 35 pretty soon. Red Baron at Viva el Birdos is a good resource as well. He also does a pretty good draft preview when that starts rolling around. The coverage here with Brian and Derek though is a cut above, and the comments section is full of excellent, mostly objective (ha) posters.
I feel it is important that Derek and all of you share equally with my vote in our site top 50. Elsewhere, some are very forthcoming about their favorite prospects, yet claim objectivity. More opinions are always better.
Thanks Bob Reed for the insightful details, unfortunately I only know what I read and sometimes watch until they get to Wrigley or Miller Park.
Somewhat of a funny story, a bday gift from my wife last year was going up to Miller Park for the first series for the Sat and Sun games(March 30-31 or around there). We got there very early and at batting practice, O’neill and Bader were waiting to hit and she goes “who are those little guys, are they the ball boys?”. They don’t look so short on TV, etc, but they do look a little vertically challenged a few rows back.
You’re welcome, ChiTown. And thank you in turn, for the funny “short guys” anecdote. Tyler O’Neill & Harry Bader both are built like fire hydrants, adding to the ball boy resemblance.
I meant to add something to the earlier Ivan Herrera comments. As it is the season for gluttony, I feel a heaping helping of Herrera hoopla is appropriate. This is from a couple months back:
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-hitting-prospects-in-arizona-fall-league?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageThis was my favorite part:
“His batting practice before the Fall Stars Game, meanwhile, was among my favorites. He showed plus pull-side raw power, parking balls well over the fence with ease, and hitting them farther than most other hitters on the field that day.”A teenager is not supposed to be among the most impressive batting practice performers in the Arizona Fall League. (For a guy whose greatest weakness by far as a hitter is supposed to be a lack of power, that is one very reassuring scrap of scouting.)
There are some flaws in the scouting reports, as others have noted. A big one that I saw right off the top was Zack Thompson didn’t turn down the Rays’ signing bonus after being drafted. He failed a post-draft physical.
Blackhills, great pickup on Thompson, where do you guys see him starting? Pushing him to Springfield seems unlikely so I would guess back to Palm Beach? With all of the options for Memphis and Springfield, there actually might not even be an open spot above PB.
Another tidbit, the writer sure doesn’t sound confident in Montero sticking at 3B and with 1B locked down for 5 years, RF might be his eventual position.
Out of my boredom, here are my predictions for 2021 Cards prospect rankings. I’m assuming guys very close graduate, such as Carlson, Knizner, Junior Fernandez, etc.
1) Gorman
2) Herrera
3) Thompson
4) Torres
5) Rondon
6) Montero
7) Oviedo
8) Malcom Nunez
9) Mateo Gil
10) Luken BakerI don’t know a thing about Patrick Romeri….. but it sounds like he could have been a diamond in the rough pick.
Has Montero’s prospect star lost a little luster?
To some, sure. But I also think that many prospect raters haven’t taken into account the exact injury he had in 2019, which was the broken hamate bone. That is a notoriously difficult one for hitters to come back from. Personally, I’ve got him #3 on my expected year end 2020 top prospects.
To the Romeri point, I give each of the top 50 prospects a scouting grade. Romeri’s 5.5 is the highest of anyone on our list from no. 28 through 50. Of course, the risk now is high. Even so, the only reason he made the consolidated top 50 (at no. 48) was because of my no. 40 vote. In hindsight, I almost wish he hadn’t made the top 50 so he could have been my 2020 sleeper pick. My sleeper from a year ago, Angel Rondon, went on to do pretty well…
CardsTalk also conducted a vote for the Cardinals Top 50 prospects, and this is the list they came up with:
1 Dylan Carlson
2 Nolan Gorman
3 Andrew Knizner
4 Randy Arozarena
5 Genesis Cabrera
6 Zack Thompson
7 Junior Fernandez
8 Justin Williams
9 Elehuris Montero
10 Jake Woodford
11 Ivan Herrera
12 Jhon Torres
13 Johan Oviedo
14 Angel Rondon
15 Malcom Nunez
16 Edmundo Sosa
17 Julio Rodriguez
18 Luken Baker
19 Conner Capel
20 Delvin Perez
21 Evan Mendoza
22 Tre Fletcher
23 Alvaro Seijas
24 Adolis Garcia
25 Jack Ralston
26 Ramon Urias
27 Andre Pallante
28 Steven Gingery
29 Tommy Parsons
30 Seth Elledge
31 Griffin Roberts
32 Mateo Gil
33 Tony Locey
34 Max Schrock
35 Juan Yepez
36 Kodi Whitley
37 Kramer Robertson
38 Brady Whalen
39 Edgar Escobar
40 Leandro Cedeno
41 Lars Nootbaar
42 Jake Walsh
43 Alex FaGalde
44 Jose Godoy
45 Justin Toener
46 Tyler Reichenborn
47 Jonatan Machado
48 Jacob Patterson
49 Brendan Donovan
50 Pedro PagesThanks BHC. Some interesting placements. No Nogowski and no Ravelo… I didn’t include either on my own list.
There are those who assert 27-year olds cannot be prospects. I’ve softened my view on that over the years.
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