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February 8, 2021 at 2:11 pm in reply to: Agreement on 2021 rules/salaries/service time/contracts #153788
Apparently, there will be changes to the baseball this year to likely benefit pitching.
MLB making changes to the baseball, deadening it – but by how much? With @EnoSarris: https://t.co/z1tV98R40V
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 8, 2021
It took Ozzie Smith a very long time to become good at the plate…..but he did.
Yadier Molina was in the same boat. That’s a good reminder that talented players can and do make progress and sometimes it just clicks, then off they go.
Using my spreadsheet from earlier this off-season, this lineup with no DH and Arenado in it would score around 750 runs if everyone hit to their Baseball Reference projection OPS, 740 runs if they hit to their career average OPS, 815 if they hit to their “best in last 5 years” projection and 630 if everyone tanked. Run environments change every year but that would put this lineup solidly in the middle of the pack in the NL most years. Given that the pitching will be in the top few most likely, and the defense probably the best in the league, that is an adequate offense.
It’s not a given (it’s been the debate of course) but if we could get .800ish OPS from Dejong and one of Carlson or O’Neill with the other breaking out, this could be a very good offense. That would make the team a Series contender.
For example:
Edman .750+
Carlson .800
Goldy .850+
Arenado .850+
Dejong .800
O’Neill .850+
Yadi .700
Bader/Thomas .750+Is it likely? Probably not. It’s possible in the sense that the 2013 team with crazy solid hitting up and down the lineup, followed by a very mediocre 2014 offense, can happen within the confines of season to season variance. Perhaps we are due.
February 7, 2021 at 9:14 pm in reply to: Less and less demand for traditional sports writers #153747Sad news regarding Pedro Gomez of ESPN. He was 58.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30857724/espn-baseball-reporter-pedro-gomez-dies-58
That may be a better assessment and evaluation?
Nope. Stats plus scouting is always a safer bet. O’Neill was a top 50 prospect, Carlson a top 50 prospect, Bader was missed by the raters but has an elite glove and below to average bat. Put them together and I could see anything from 6-10 WAR from our OF in 2020 without it being a huge surprise.
If you don’t much much emphasis on 2020, 25, should we put emphasis on Bader’s 2019? The last “normal” season.
Why put emphasis on anything? Bader did basically what he’s done his entire career in 2020. I don’t feel better about him or worse based on 2020. In small samples, anything can happen. Over the course of season, Bader will be a below average to average bat and elite glove. That’s fine in CF.
February 7, 2021 at 1:47 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153730I don’t think the Red Sox would do that deal straight up. The Cardinals would have to sweeten the pot. But the idea has potential.
I agree. Although I think the sweetening could be to even the money up and maybe a low level prospect from St Louis. Neither had good 2020s and both had injuries.
Putting any significant weight on the 2020 season, knowing the especially difficult and unusual conditions, is not wise. IMO`
I totally agree with this. I don’t take anything from 2020 for most of the team. Goldy is about the only one I feel confident in saying should have production near what he did last year.
Sure, those are a couple of other examples. They are generally few and far between. The Cards have done well in identifying some over the years. Still, the guys who make the majors at a younger age tend to do better. For the same reason that a 25 year old playing college football at a high level wouldn’t be that exciting, good AAA stats at 25-26-27 rarely signal an exciting future big league player.
Dean is that type of player who occasionally works out better than you hope (like Like Voit), but is generally exactly what you expect (an AAAA player). I’m sure he will compete in spring training and find a role either as the last guy in St Louis or at Memphis as a call up. Older players who have good numbers after several years at the AAA level aren’t too exciting.
February 6, 2021 at 8:42 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153666nbr1hawkeye…Benintendi is a decent ballplayer, no doubt. And he will come at a discount, that is true. I think you aren’t quite grasping the difference in value between he and Flaherty. There’s a site that compares potential trades between teams (LINK HERE) that gives us a good idea of what is known as the “surplus value” of different players as to what is left remaining on their contract. Jack Flaherty is at $85.2 million surplus, meaning even if he’s making $20+ million in year three, the sum of his expected value to the Cards minus his expected pay is $85.M. Benintendi is at $4.6M surplus. That’s a massive gulf that the Red Sox would have to cross to match up with the Cardinals.
Also, it should be noted that the Cards have very little money committed for 2022 and 2023 at this point. Payroll in years leading up to 2020 was approaching $170M. With the players dropping off after this year and even adding Arenado, the Cards have around $85-90M committed to players for those years. Adding in arbitration costs, the team will have plenty of money to pay Flaherty until he becomes a free agent.
If the Cards were to trade Flaherty now, they could command a king’s ransom (likely a top 10 prospect in baseball plus other prospects). That said, for a contender to trade its best pitcher would be a head scratcher. Getting a decent but not great player like Benintendi back would be one of the more lop sided trades we have ever seen.
I agree that if he can’t hold up to starting or if he pitches a lot of mediocre innings, he won’t be back. But I would think a 30 year old with his track record would fetch a nice free agent contract if he’s his normal self. I define normal as having around an ERA in the low to mid 3s, which is where he’s been every full season of his career. The short seasons have been trouble for Carlos. I hope he can put together a good season, for his sake at least.
It is, sure. But at the same time, there is definite upside, even with the bat. I know that you don’t necessarily buy that the COVID schedule had a big impact, but I do. Plus, what if they end up trading another one and he goes all Arozarena? You know Mo would never live it down.
I still do think that there will be some guys available mid season and the rest of the Central is not gonna be strong enough that the Cards won’t be right there even if they underperform a little bit. Hopefully we will be talking in October about how the Cards young OFers are really coming through just like we hoped.
February 6, 2021 at 4:40 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153647Where would Benintendi hit in this lineup? He doesn’t have much power and his OBP isn’t that good either. #6/7? He’s not much of a defender either. LF?
2B Edman
RF Carlson
1B Goldy
3B Arenado
SS Dejong
LF Benintendi
C Yadi
CF BaderCarp at 6 if DH.
BC, you are right that it is a risk. There is a lot of upside though, and as has been mentioned before, the defense is known to be elite. There are Gold Glove caliber players at C, 1B, SS, 3B, LF and CF and 2B and RF have some upside too. I’d be in favor of adding a true upgrade to the offense out there, but if we are just going to add someone who will hit 10% better while mucking up the defense, I’ll pass.
For the record, I believe the outfield will be above average with the bat. I think we are gonna have a fun year of beating the NL Central down. I’ll stand by that til the end of the year.
Speaking of options, I think most have accepted that Carlos will not have his exercised after 2021. However, is there a level of play he could hit where the team would consider taking the 2022 option at $17M? Or are the Cards done with Carlos no matter what?
For me, if he’s healthy and more like 2015-17 Carlos, you’d have to consider it. 180+ IP and 3.20-3.50 ERA is expensive on the open market if revenues are back up. Of course, there’s a chance he doesn’t pitch nearly so well and the choice is murkier. I’d wonder where that point is.
More walks than you’d like, but hard to argue with the end result. Hopefully he’s the Carlos of old in his big money year.
NYM want a true CF – Bader
STL walked away from their leadoff batter – Nimmo
NYM would like to move Familia’s salary and acquire a LH pen arm – Miller
STL still needs to add imo, but salaries are within 1.4mil (NYM send 16.4mil, STL sends 15mil)STL downgrades the pen slightly and adds to the lineup much more
outfield of Nimmo, Carlson and O’Neill
make it work 25! Who do we owe?I love this scenario. A one year flier on Familia probably wouldn’t hurt as he probably has something left in the tank if he’s not a closer. We would still have Cabrera and Webb as lefties in the pen, and potentially Thompson or Libby for late season. Kudos to you for a splendid idea. I only wish Mo was on the phone making this move right now.
As for who else we would add, I’d be ok with adding a prospect hitter like Julio Rodriguez, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, Yepez, etc or a pitcher like Pallante, Seijas, or Ralston. If they wanted a better player, I’d concede up to Junior Fernandez or maybe Malcom Nunez, although I would not like it as much. But Nimmo-Carlson-Goldy-Arenado at the top of the lineup…😍😍😍
February 6, 2021 at 12:59 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153634I wouldn’t trade O’Neill for Benintendi straight up. I would give them Justin Williams and a “You’re Welcome” note for taking $6+ million off their hands.
O’Neill: 3.3 WAR/650 PA, league minimum
Benintendi: 3.4 WAR/650 PA, $6.6MSeems like they should have kicked it into high gear by now. JMHO.
We know who Bader is. Great glove, solid bat against LHP but exposed against RHP, especially breaking balls. O’Neill simply has not gotten enough time in any season to say who he is yet. I know you’ll add up all the plate appearances and say it’s sufficient, but it’s just not. He’s been a different hitter all three years. He should get 400+ PA in one season and if he shows he’s a 4th OF with some pop and a good glove, we can adjust accordingly. Carlson will likely be solid this year, not great. But we can dream on him. Thomas and Williams have incomplete grades.
2020 stats are not going to cut it Tom project a full, normal year. Unless we get a real upgrade like Nimmo or Conforto, I don’t see why we wouldn’t just give the kids a shot. The trade deadline will still be there and someone of value will be moved.
February 6, 2021 at 10:53 am in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153618Flaherty is controlled for three years no matter what. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game and is only 25 years old. I understand that some may be terrified that he will leave after 2023 but there is no reason to trade him for an OK (and nothing more) outfielder. There are very few players I would trade Jack Flaherty for at this point. His trade value is massive and probably would require a very good player in addition to Benintendi coming back to St Louis.
A close trade for the two including both Benintendi and Flaherty could look like (trade values in parentheses):
Sox get: Flaherty ($85.2M)
Cards get: Benintendi ($4.6M), Rafael Devers ($55.3M), Jeter Downs (their top prospect, $21.3M)
I doubt either team would want to do that. Carlos has negative value so unless the Sox thought he was a good bounce back candidate, I don’t see that either.
Braun?
Could you possibly root for a team that had that sort of guy on it? I really really hope the Cards don’t sign him. In fact, I hope no one does.
February 5, 2021 at 7:44 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153597Outfielder Marcell Ozuna and the Atlanta Braves are finalizing a four-year, $65 million deal, sources familiar with the agreement tell ESPN. There is a fifth-year option that would take it to $80 million.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 6, 2021
Ozuna deal : 64 mil total sources :
12 2021
16 2022
18 2023
18 20251 mil buyout 2025 or 16 mil.
— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) February 6, 2021
February 5, 2021 at 4:28 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153585The Dodgers tied one hand behind their back for a few years and now are ready to retake their place at the top of the sport’s spending rankings. I’d bet that they weren’t far off from the top even when “down” when you included what they spend on the front office, scouting and development, etc..
February 5, 2021 at 3:19 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #153576Might be 4 for 2022 as Buehler may be the best of the bunch this coming year.
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