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Bc, you have many times stated that the most recent year’s info is the MOST relevant. Bader outperformed EVERY OFer on the Cardinals, according to the stats. Do you believe the stats are made up?
As far as where he hits in the order, I would bat him at the end of the lineup, also. He should be getting on base ahead of the big bats.
bccran
Bader’s okay if you have bats in the rest of the lineup. If you’re below where you want to be offensively at 3B and in left and right field, you don’t have the luxury of having HB in CF.
Since this is a more appropriate thread to discuss your comment in the Awards thread, I will make my reply here.
What OF on the Cardinals team outperformed Bader in 2020? Here is every player who might have played OF in 2020 with more than 25 PAs:
O’Neill – 68 OPS+ 70 wRC+
Bader – 111 OPS+ 113 wRC+
Fowler – 92 OPS+ 95 wRC+
Edman – 87 OPS+ 90 wRC+
Carlson – 66 OPS+ 65 wRC+
Ravelo – 45 OPS+ 44 wRC+
Thomas – 22 OPS+ 25 wRC+That is 2 quick, all-encompassing measures that aggregate all the areas of offense. Yes, 2 of them had a higher BA but Bader had the highest OBP. He isn’t looked at as a big bat so just getting on base is important.
gscott, that is not too bad of an idea. He should do about as good as Pederson.
Pluses:
1) He is affordable at $7.5 million for 2 years.
2) He hits RH pitching very well.
3) He hits for a higher average than Pederson.My concerns:
1) He plays in a stadium that favors hitters and he has over .100 point difference in OPS between home and on the road.
2) He has already turned 33 years old. Is he starting a decline phase? If so, how quick?
3) He is not a real good defender.EDIT: I guess I should look at all the threads before making some comments. He won the Gold Glove last year but shows a negative dWAR on Baseball Reference for 5 of his 7 years. Maybe he is and maybe he isn’t a good defender. (Shrugs Shoulders)
Well, that would fit within the ALMOST no one. Obviously, some were not OK with it. A VAST majority (on this site) were OK with it.
bccran, using my statement about the trade clearly points out that I would only be disappointed if the CARDINALS chose to send Arozarena rather than O’Neill. I believe I also have a statement that says I was still OK with the deal. There seems to be a lot of information that shows the Rays WANTED Arozarena. At this point, everything else is just noise. If we could go back and redo the deal, I would guess that there would be no deal without Arozarena and we still would have had a logjam of OFs. I doubt Arozarena alone would have made enough difference for the Cardinals this year.
BTW, you cited 3 posters who clearly ranked Arozarena higher than O’Neill. 2 posters only showed dislike for O’Neill. 2 posters clearly ranked O’Neill higher than Arozarena. 1 poster ranked Thomas higher than Arozarena.
Bccran, if you want to talk about drafting, bring it up in a drafting thread. This is about getting ready for 2021.
bccran, if they did draft more OFs in the first 5 rounds, maybe there would have been more Plummer’s and Denton’s and no Carlson’s. Consider that.
That 2015 draft was the only one with Chris Correa in charge. He wiffed on Plummer and Denton but did draft Woodford, Bader, Hicks, DeJong and Helsley.
After all this discussion, here are my moves:
1) Pick up Wong’s extension.
2) Sign Molina to a 2 year contract. $8 million base each year with easy to reach incentives, if healthy and performing.
3) Sign Waino to another 1 year contract similar to his 2020 contract.
4) Let Wieters and Brad Miller walk.
5) Try to sign Turner to play 3B for 2 years with a mutual option for a third.
6) Try to sign Brantley for 3 years for LF. Springer would be the backup option.
7) Trade CMart and Wong and Andrew Miller to free up salary for free agents.
8) Try to acquire someone like Kirilloff, Kelenic to fill an OF spot in a year or 2.
9) Backup plan of signing Andrelton Simmons and either moving DeJong to 3B or see if the Cardinals could get a good “sell high” deal on him.The chances of signing 2 free agents and stay within the Cardinals financial constraints is almost impossible. I would only trade Wong and Miller if the Cardinals did sign a free agent. I am hoping that we could really find out just how much value CMart has and he helps acquire that top 50+ prospect.
And all that has nothing to do with what this team should do this offseason. That’s what they did in the past.
bccran
Zimmerman
Melancon
Jansen
Chapman
Kennedy
Kimbrel
Smith
Britton
Familia
Miller
Robertson
Quintana
Treinen
OzunaAll making at least $10 million.
Don’t cherry pick just the closers.Zimmerman (he has made 2 relief appearances in the major leagues)
Melancon (one of the best closers when he signed @ $14 million)
Jansen (the premier closer in the game signed by the Dodgers @ $18 million)
Chapman (the top free agent closer when he signed with the Yankees @ $16 million)
Kennedy (signed by the Royals as a SP @ $16.5 million)
Kimbrel (the premier closer when he signed with the Cubs @ $16 million)
Smith (one of the best left handed closers when he signed @ $13 million)
Britton (one of the best left handed relievers when signed by the Yankees @ $13 million)
Familia (saved 51 games in 2016. Current contract AAV $10 million with Mets)
Miller (left handed reliever currently needing to be traded to relieve salary concerns)
Robertson (a top reliever when signed by Phillies $11 million)
Quintana (7 relief appearances in his career)
Treinen (had been A’s closer when signed by Dodgers @ $10 million)
Ozuna (a top notch closer @ $10 million)So what this list tells me is that we either need to trade CMart as a starter (Zimmerman, Kennedy and Quintana), turn him into a left handed reliever (Miller, Britton, Smith and Chapman), make sure he is one of the elite closers (Osuna, Familia, Kimbrel, Smith, Chapman and Jansen) or trade him to a deep pocket club (Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Yankees and Mets – 7 of the 11 relievers).
He never said that the Cardinals would give CMart away for free.
Also, it is the point. It is precisely what Brian is trying to get across to you. While CMart has SOME value, it is not that great when you consider his salary AS A RELIEVER. You know that you would not trade either of those prospects for any of the relievers you mentioned, especially at their salary.
bccran, name any of those relievers you listed that you would trade Carlson for in a 1 for 1 trade. Also, name any of them you would trade Nolan Gorman for in a 1 for 1 trade.
If he had achieved #3 starter status, that’s one thing. When his most likely scenario is either a #5 starter or middle relief, that’s something totally different.
Bccran, we have had quite a few pitchers come up and have a good rookie season with limited exposure. Once they get more innings thrown, they don’t fare as well. Ponce de leon is one example. I hope Woodford can make it as A ML starter. However, he will probably be a number 3, at best. That’s not worth a lot, just a little.
I know at one point in a season I checked the catcher’s ERA for Molina and Kelly. Kelly had the better ERA. I want to say that at that time, Molina’s ERA was almost 1 run higher. I can’t speak for sample sizes or even when it was. I just remember being shocked.
Texascard, Eduardo Perez said he talked with the Ray’s GM shortly after the trade. Their GM really wanted Arozarena. That’s why they gave up Liberatore.
Turner just had an OPS+ of 135. That was 52nd in the majors when you consider only players with more than 100 PAs. It would be the second highest on the Cardinals. He was paid $20 million for 2020. I think it will take at least $18 million AAV if you only want to sign him for 2 years. Probably more.
Brantley’s last 3 years OPS+ are 124, 126 and 126. The AAV on the 2 year contract with the Astros was $16 million. This is probably his last opportunity for a big contract. I think it will take at least $18 million AAV for 2 years to sign him, as well. He will probably be looking for 3-4 years or more. Maybe we could make his a little back loaded.
I agree that if we trade Wong, CMart and Miller, we will not get high ceiling prospects unless we include more value (prospects, ML players or money). Or you get someone like O’Neill, a prospect has huge potential but a lot of hurdles to jump to get there. The only one of those 3 that I would “salary dump” is Miller.
Jj, is the risk really greater for the Cardinals? If Haniger’s numbers are bad, could they be much worse than what the Cardinals had in the OF in 2020? Also, I think Gant can be replaced internally.
If O’Neill shows in training camp that things are coming together, I would hope that the Cardinals would go with an OF of Carlson, Bader and O’Neill. That’s if they don’t acquire another outfielder to play every day. If Fowler complains 1 time about sitting, cut him.
On Turner, I get the caution about his age and continued ability to hit. However, unless I am missing something, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down very much. If we could sign him to a 2 year contract with a team option for a third year, I think he upgrades the team the most. At that point, Carpenter should be an expensive bench player waiting for his contract to expire.
Left field could possibly be a place for a big upgrade but O’Neill might be the one who provides that upgrade. If we can’t upgrade 3B, then we need to go outside for LF. Brantley would be my first choice. Pederson and Rosario would be fall back options to platoon.
I was listening to MLB radio on XM today and they were discussing the Arozarena trade. Eduardo Perez said that he talked to the Rays GM shortly after the trade and asked why they would trade Liberatore. The response was that the Rays thought so much of Arozarena, they wanted him. They felt he would be a star in the MLB.
I think that pretty much sums up why the Cardinals traded Arozarena instead of another young OFer in the trade. There was almost no one who complained about the trade at the time it was made.