Throw out the Triple-A Stats – Ponce de Leon has earned a Rotation Shot

photo: Daniel Ponce de Leon (Jeff Curry/Imagn)

Filling in for injured starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (back spasms) Friday evening at Busch Stadium, Daniel Ponce de Leon gave the St. Louis Cardinals 6 2/3 innings of strong results. The 27-year old right-hander held Arizona to three hits, including a solo home run, walked none and fanned seven. 69 of his 107 pitches went for strikes.

Daniel Ponce de Leon (Steve Mitchell/Imagn)

This performance lowered his St. Louis ERA to 1.99 for the season, leading to fan calls for Ponce de Leon to remain in the rotation – if not for Wainwright, then to replace disappointing and inconsistent veteran Michael Wacha (5.54 ERA).

Earlier this season, when Wacha was pulled from the rotation for two starts, it was rookie lefty Genesis Cabrera who received the call instead. The 22-year old was clearly not ready and is now back at Memphis. Had they not been injured, Alex Reyes and Austin Gomber were considered by many to be ahead of Ponce de Leon in the rotation pecking order, as well.

So, why has Ponce de Leon been passed over?

I have a theory.

Daniel Ponce de Leon (Memphis Redbirds)

He simply wasn’t pitching as well at Memphis this season as in prior years, making the prospect of installing him in the rotation less appealing to the Cardinals.

Prevailing logic, backed up by plenty of data, suggests that a pitcher at the start of his MLB career will probably not perform as well in the majors initially as he did in Triple-A.

Ponce de Leon appears to be an exception.

For reasons that are unclear to me, he has been a much better pitcher as a major leaguer than he has shown while in Triple-A. Not only is his ERA lower, he has pitched as deeply into games while walking fewer batters.

Let’s look at some numbers that back this up.

Walks

In his 64 2/3 innings with St. Louis over 2018 and 2019, Ponce de Leon has a walk rate of 3.3 per nine innings – just ok.

For Memphis in 180 2/3 innings in 36 appearances, 35 starts since 2017, his walk rate is considerably worse, at 4.6 per nine. And the trend is not positive over time, with his 2019 mark for the Redbirds up to a concerning 4.9.

Innings per start

In his 11 starts with Memphis this season, “Ponce” threw a total of 55 1/3 innings for an average of just five innings per outing.

It is not new. Over his 35 career Triple-A starts, he secured an out in the seventh inning just once, in his final start last June before being called up to St. Louis.

Yet, Ponce de Leon has pitched into the seventh in two of his eight MLB starts over last season and this, including on Friday evening. In all fairness, though, he has averaged just five innings over his eight starts as a major leaguer, as well.

ERA

For the Redbirds, Ponce de Leon’s ERA increased substantially this year – to 3.90 in 2019 from 2.16 and 2.24 in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Over the three seasons, it is 2.74.

His two-year ERA with the Cardinals is 2.37, with a 2.73 mark last year and the 1.99 ERA in 2019. Now, there is a difference in that 23 2/3 of his innings with St. Louis have been as a reliever. However, coming out of the bullpen, Ponce de Leon’s 3.04 ERA pales in comparison to his 1.98 ERA over his eight starts as a Cardinal.

Conclusion

Throw the Triple-A stats out the window in this case. By now, Ponce de Leon has been given enough opportunity with St. Louis to demonstrate that he can be an effective major league starter.

Though Cardinals manager Mike Shildt was non-committal in his Friday post-game remarks, I agree with those who believe Ponce de Leon should continue in St. Louis’ rotation unless/until he proves he should not.


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