February 12, 2018 at 3:21 pm #43660
Norris as a counter move to Darvish…come on that is ridiculous, even postulating that lowers anyone’s credibilityFebruary 12, 2018 at 3:27 pm #43663
That statement was incorporated into the overall discussion of the offseason moves by the NL Central.
Darvish, Morrow, Chatwood, Smyly, Cishek, Duensing
vs. Ozuna, Gregerson, Leone, Norris
Norris just happened to be the most recent so kind of bad timing for the comparison folks out there.
February 12, 2018 at 3:46 pm #43675
- This reply was modified 1 week, 5 days ago by gscottar.
thing is…the Cubs acquisitions outside of maybe chatwood arent much of upgrades…just fillers for open spots…they might have spent a lot of money but that is only because they have no way to fill the spots anyways
Darvish = Arrieta (last three years it might be a downgrade looking at the stats)
Morrow < Davis by a lot…Morrow has never been a closer and barely been a reliever
Chatwood => Lackey …though looking at Chatwoods Coors field play i dunno…its not ALL the field
Smyly <= Montgomery or Butler? (hurt not sure when he would even be relevant)
Cishek <= Uehara …Uehara was pretty impressive the last couple years, Cishek, not so much even if he trends up a bit
Duensing = Duensing
so they got a little better at their #5 pitcher, and got worse in their bullpen
Ozuna > Piscotty/Grichuk etc…. by a lot
Mikolas < Lynn (hard to say anything different…but they have more options than just Mik with all the kids)
Gregerson = Oh (and that is being generous to Oh)
Norris > Brox/Siegriest/ hurt Rosy
Leone > Socolovich/Sherriff/Mayers
upgrade to lineup and to bullpen..rotation is a little weaker but with high end prospects like Reyes and Flaherty waiting the 1:1 matchup might not matter)
Cain > Broxton/Brinson/Phillips etc. at least in the short term he is a better all around producer
Yelich >= Santana (Santana was productive it’s just different than Yelich)
got their lineup a bit better
the Cubs made big signings because they were forced to do so just to try to patch up what they lost and what they did bring puts them AT BEST as good as they were last year…but potentially worse
Cardinals and Brewers got better without losing anything that really mattered to them (Lynn POTENTIALLY withstanding…but again the plan for mitigating the loss is pretty solid even if i disagree with not bringing in a higher end pitcher)
everyone is acting like the cubs added Darvish to their rotation last year where Arrieta was in it…they didnt they just patched the hole with a similar playerFebruary 12, 2018 at 10:04 pm #43713
If they go with a 7 man bullpen here is 2017 ended versus 2018 projections:
Assuming Reyes isn’t a reliever on opening day, how can we say our bullpen is any better than last year, a year in which it was terrible. I could project Cecil should be better, but I also could see Lyons being worse, just due to the fact he had a really good year, and would be bound to fall off a little. And they should start Helsley, HIcks, Hudson, and Greene as along as they can for their ceilings. And with a starting staff that potentially won’t get deep into games adds another twist to this.February 13, 2018 at 10:22 am #43750
The Cardinals bullpen wasn’t terrible last year, it was more unlucky than anything.February 13, 2018 at 10:33 am #43757
Neither Duke or Lyons were there to start the season last year.
Why would Lyons regress? His ERA last year was higher than his career ERA as a reliever.February 13, 2018 at 10:47 am #43762
Lyons really has only one standout year to date. So for me, the question is whether the 2017 Lyons is the new Lyons or was it a one-year peak? We shall see.
Here is analysis from CBS:
Over the past three seasons, Tyler Lyons has been all over the place. The strikeout and walk rates were good in 2015 and 2016, but his home run rates were atrocious and yet his ERA stayed below 4.00 because most were solo shots and he stranded runners. Last season, he had a huge jump in strikeout rate, from 24.6 percent to 30.9 percent, and he finally kept the ball in the park (0.50 HR/9) and continued to strand runners at a high clip (79.3 percent). His left-on-base (LOB%) rate over the past three seasons has been somewhere between 79 and 85 percent, which is an elite level for even the best of relievers. Either Lyons is a lot better than we give him credit for, or he is headed into trouble with regression to the mean in his home run rate as well as his strand rate. The Cardinals are expected to trade for or sign a closer this offseason, but if they strike out on both fronts, Lyons would be in the ninth-inning mix.February 13, 2018 at 10:49 am #43764
they dont go with a 7 man bullpen so that is out the door already they go 8 (except potentially super early in the season)
and in that list..how can you say Gregerson isnt better than Oh? and that Leone isnt better than a hurt and not an option for anyone Rosy
the bullpen wasnt terrible last year as someone else said…however the parts that were bad were released and replaced with better ones…are they replaced with Kenley Jansens …no but upgrades are upgrades…not to mention having kids ready to come up
also our bullpen really killed us a lot EARLY in the season IMO…because we kept goign to Oh when he didnt have anything and then it was a free for all to figure out how to fix it…
On top of that the whole early bullpen was stuck because it had no movement built in for callng up replacements…everyone including Rosy struggled early except Bowman and LYons who were leaned on more and more…Bowman a lot early until it caught up with him and he plateaud..and then eventually they went with Lyons…
Socolovich, Cecil, Rosy, Oh, Broxton, Siegriest….all were very poor early on in the season last year…Cecil and Rosy eventually righted themselves somewhat but Rosy left to injury… all the others arent around anymore
Only Bowman ,Cecil, and Lyons remain from opening day last year…and all the new guys are upgrades on who they replace (the degree is arguable)
Bowman without being ridden so hard should be better than last year
Cecil should be better
Lyons even if he isnt AS lights out isnt bad
with Reyes, Hicks, Helsley, Gant, Wick, Sherriff, Flaherty, Hudson, all there to help
and Lyons has no reason to get worse…he has been a high quality pitcher in whatever role has been thrown at him his whole MLB career…there is far more evidence with his play that he will stay doing well than there is that he will regress…February 13, 2018 at 10:49 am #43765
Jager, even if your optimistic analysis is correct the Cubs are still better than us and that is the bottom line isn’t it? We didn’t close the gap. Most analytic projections have the Cubs around 92 wins and us around 85.
And personally I think Darvish is quite a bit better than Arrieta. I think the Cubs think so too. You can see which one they targeted all winter and eventually signed. I do think losing Wade Davis could be a big deal unless they add another closer in July. I also wouldn’t expect down years for Schwarber and Russell again.February 13, 2018 at 11:11 am #43772
i never said they werent better…i said the gap is pretty arbitrary and pretty subjective
just because the Cubs hopeful to come back and play better players are household names doesnt put them in any different situation than nay other teams players who were bad last year that hope to be better…Schwarber was healthy and not good..russell ws hurt then healthy and not good…Zobrist was not very good…
I personally dont think Darvish is that much better than Arrieta last year…i think it says more about their opinion of Arrieta going downhill than it is that Darvish is so much better…they are just hoping he is because they lost their confidence in Arrieta…
Davis saved their butts last year a lot…so did Uehara…
The Cubs get all this super credit for Morrow how has no experience at closer or really relieving outside of last year (where he WASNT the guy)…yet the Cardinals actually bring in a guy with relieving and closing experience and they get attacked for doing nothing…I’d have preferred to take a chance on MOrrow too…but the situations arent the same…
Russell, Schwarber, Heyward, Almora, Zobrist…even Baez, Contreras are all question marks for performance being similar or different than last year…
will they all fail to get better? no…but the more ?’s you have the more likely there will be issues…
Lester is a year older but no one seems to care…Darvish had a relatively healthy 2017 but 2016 had issues after TJ…and his performance in the offseason was not very good to be nice…i dont care if the excuse of “tipping pitches” is said 100 times…
All I see with the Cubs is basically the same team they rolled out last year which is thin in quality depth and very dependent on not having key players be injured…which they have been pretty lucky to have seen succeed…. i think their bullpen is worse as of today as Davis was extremely important to their success last year…
The Cardinals upgraded their bullpen and their offense…and while their rotation as of today is worse (until we see what we get from Waino and Mikolas)….they have far better options to replace them with their depth than the Cubs do…
the depth in the minors for the rotation and the bullpen is potentially overwhelming…outside a loss of Ozuna’s potential offensive upgrade and no solid SS backup we can even replace most of the position players with similar level players that have upside on top
So to me I see the Cubs as similar to last team if not a hair worse…and the Cardinals team LAST year was right there with them in the last weeks (we were tied for first late in the year)…the CArdinals are better right now overall than they were last year and fixed most of their issues…
IMO I am uneasy because the one area we have question marks for is one of the most important…and i dont have the same confidence in FLaherty and Reyes and Hudson to be impactful enough to replace a bad Waino and/or a bad Mikolas…not to mention the assumption of Weaver being solid…I feel better when i have 3 solid SPs…not 2…(and i am including Wacha/Weaver as 1 to pair with Carlos as i see only one of them being terrible not both)…
which is why i clamor for Archer…because i want that surety of a high end SP more than i want the surety of a higher upside backup catcher like Kelly and the HOPE of FLaherty…
I prefer a team with Archer and a veteran backup catcher like Rivera over a team with Kelly and Flaherty in key spots…not because Flaherty and KElly dont have real potential to be good but because they have no track record to help right now…Archer does…even if he woudl fail miserably…he woudl still give more confidence at this point…
I want nothing more than Flaherty to be a star and shoudl we lose Mikolas or Waino he steps in and blazes a trail…but i’d prefer Archer now over the hope for laterFebruary 13, 2018 at 11:31 am #43777
Well you are probably the most optimistic poster on this board. Mo should hire you to be PR spokesperson.
Actually, to say that the Pecota, Fangraphs, or Zips projections are subjective is only true to a certain extent. They all have a margin of error but they are based on objective data. That is the reason for analytics; take the emotion out of it.
One thing that is not subjective was our head to head record against the Cubs last year. It was 5-14. If we have any chance of competing for the division we need to be able to rise up and beat them more. We seem to play scared against them.February 13, 2018 at 11:44 am #43778
Jager, here is an article that you will appreciate.February 13, 2018 at 12:03 pm #43781
WOW! that’s a lot of “ifs”. I think it would take less of those scenarios, and it could happen. There seems to be a surprise team somewhere in MLB every year… why not the Cards. This time of the year nearly every fan believes his fav team will win it all. The quantitative measures are just that. Some teams will come out ahead and some will fare worse. Hey, that’s why they play the games.
Let’s go Cardinals.February 13, 2018 at 12:45 pm #43786
My theory is when you need a lot of things to go your way or “ifs” then you could be in for a long season or a huge letdown. I’d rather be confident rolling into the season with the team we’ve got then praying all those things happen. Right now we’re hunting for a wild card.
And I do agree that we’ve got to play better against the Cubs. 5-14 is dog 💩.February 13, 2018 at 12:57 pm #43789
The Cards also lost the season series to the Brewers, though not totally dominated like the Cubs did.February 13, 2018 at 1:34 pm #43793
This roster is riddled with question marks from top to bottom. It’s like the Dusty Springfield song “wishin and hopin”.February 13, 2018 at 1:41 pm #43794
The bullpen might not have been terrible last year, but Cecil was. I’m saying that because I remember him coming into a game, time and time again, and stinking up the place. I don’t care what his numbers say. He cost us 3-5 games. Oh was lousy, too. And Rosenthal only had a few good games. Then, there was Broxton who was so bad that he was, essentially, told to clean out his desk and leave. If it wasn’t that Lyons started throwing an absolutely sick slider, and that Brebbia just showed up out of nowhere, this bullpen would have been a total disaster.February 13, 2018 at 4:16 pm #43797
Okay, first of all, I wasn’t dinging Lyons at all. I was saying a slight ERA rise of 2.8 to 3.10/3.20. ANd as far as his career relief ERA that doesn’t have much bearing on things, as he had NEVER been a closer before. There is one thing to be facing a second string left handed catcher in the 6th down 6-0, and then having to face Joey Votto with the bases loaded and the game on the line. I like Lyons very much, and hope Brians stats on his improvement continue.
Yes, the bullpen was terrible, 29 bullpen losses, almost 1/5 of the games played, is terrible. When Bowmann is near leading the league in appearances there is something wrong. He shouldn’t have been overworked and put in many of those situations, but with Matheny afraid to use Oh, Rosenthal, Cecil, Broxton, Siegrist, etc. because they blew so many games he was the only choice. The Cubs relievers had 22 losses, and outside of wade Davis I wouldn’t consider last years Cubs bullpen very good either. But I would rather have had 22 losses, obviously.
Lastly, the career ERA of the new bullpen additions compared to ones departed via free agency is New = 10.99 and old = 10.14. Gregerson has 66 saves in 112 opportunites. Not an encouraging percentage. Comparing the end of 2017 to now is the only fair way assess things, as I could care less about what Broxton/Siegrist/Socolovich did during the season. They are gone, thankfully. How are these changes upgrades? Basically the Cards are too cheap to go out and get anyone after being burned by Cecil, Leake, Fowler etc. That said, I am still rooting for the new guys because I have to, and honestly I wouldn’t mind being wrong.February 13, 2018 at 5:06 pm #43804
career ERAs? why does that matter? that is a cherry picked stat to justify your thoughts…who cares about career numbers let alone career ERA esepcially when two main candidates were starters most of their careers
Leone last year was one of the best non closers out there
Gregerson had a down year but has a history of being reliable…he just isnt Wade Davis or who? Holland who had one good half last year? who else did you want? Morrow? with his whole 1 yr of credibility? he wasnt my first choice for closer either but he isnt worthless
Norris was pretty good in the first half last year and isnt being aksed to be a closer probably the swing man to allow Lyons to have more work at the back end IMO
Tuivalala seems to have a lot more upside than Soco
Cecil after his horrid start wasnt that bad…btu because his early was so bad his yearly numbers look poor…but that doesnt matter when you are bias based on those early performances…like almoost everyone is…which is understandable but not really accurate
LYons and BRebbia were solid to outstanding last year but were limited by the immovable options ahead of them who were jettisoned…
Bowman got ridden hard but with more options this year he should be able to slide into less innings and stay sharper
Tyler wasnt even the closer for us last year in any real capacity…and he and Bowman got used in odd spots because they were the only ones that were pitching well… Lyons isnt our closer now…Gregerson i think is only in name right now as all we hear is “competiticion” when they talk about roles with the bullpen…I think someone will step up and take it with their play and we have several encouraging options
you dont care about the guys who are gone but then say that the guys who replaced them arent any better…yet each one of them WAS better last year…the inconsistencies of the early bullpen last year is why everyone thinks the bullpen was terrible…Socolovich, Brox, ROsy, Oh ,Siegrest…they all struggled mightily and cost us several games…
as for question marks…every team has question marks…every team…I can walk through all of the cubs’ just as easy as the Cardinals ones… wishin and hoping is what every team does at the beginning of the season
I am optimistic because I choose to see my doubts of my own team as potential doubts of other teams…if i am willing to believe that Mikolas doesnt work…then i have to believe that Chatwood wont work…if Carp doesnt return to form…then neither does Russell or Schwarber… if DeJOng or Pham is a one hit wonder then so could Contreras and Baez be…if Gregerson isnt a good closer then i remember Morrow has never closed ever…if i am worried about Ozuna repeating then why cant Rizzo or Bryant have a down year too?
I woudl prefer a bit more certainty in the rotation and very back end…but i see the potential at each spot…and i see the internal fixes….they arent splashy but they make sense
the Cubs are now at point where they buy their fixes…the Cardinals for the most part develop them
The Cubs are hoping on return to form for guys who were down…plus key FA signings working out…there is no guarantee Darvish returns to form…
If i am willing to be pessimistic about my team then i have to be for other teams… which at the end of the day makes me optimistic asi see our depth in our farm as being the thing we are counting on going into the season…and for the most part the Cardinals produce pretty impressive pitchers…we didnt have an Ozuna impact anywhere so we traded for it…
should the Cubs hopes and what ifs not go well they have little to fix it internally and now they have little money too..if they want to stay under the cap
the Cardinals have youngsters ready, youngsters farther down for trading, and money should they need to go to it to make changes…
Would i have preferred to go a different route to solve the issues we had last year? yes i woudl have and still would… but i am not narcissistic enough to deny that the moves they have made arent making the team better just because they arent what i woudl doFebruary 14, 2018 at 11:31 am #43859
Your optimism is always refreshing and it is pleasing, I think, to see someone who always sees the glass as half full or for that matter completely full even when it is only half full. I need to be more honest with myself about the Cardinals. I have been a die-hard fan since 1964 and I live for the season to watch the games. But, I can’t see everything the Cardinals do as a brilliant move that is bound to succeed.
The problem with the 2018 Cardinals is that with the exception of Molina and Martinez, everything else is uncertainty. Yes, all teams have uncertainties but not as m,any as the Cardinals. Ageing, health concerns, poor performance in 2017, lack of talent, etc. will plague this team in 2018. I too wished they had been serious in the off-season but I am not going to say everything will be okay.
Finally, relying on all those great young players at Memphis will forever keep the Cardinals from being a division favorite let alone a WS favorite. Very few of those kids will be quality major league players. They have a pulse and they are cheap and taht’s why the Cardinal spin machine keeps hyping them.
In my opinion the Cardinals are not as good in 2018 as they were in 2017. It’s close but when you played like the Cardinals did in 2017 you need to go big and be aggressive in the off-season rather than the tepid response that we always get from the Front Office.
However, all is not lost because we haven’t played the first game yet. Hope for the best.
If that is pessimistic then so be it.February 14, 2018 at 11:48 am #43860
Not much really new here:
https://www.mlb.com/news/st-louis-cardinals-need-free-agent-splash/c-266389092February 14, 2018 at 1:40 pm #43865
PD article today where Yadi says Tui has what it takes to be the team’s closer. Almost comes off as advocating for it.February 14, 2018 at 1:57 pm #43867
tui seems to have all the tools…it would be great to see him emergeFebruary 15, 2018 at 10:15 am #43895
What are the chances of Holliday being given an MLB contract at this point? I saw utley just got a 2yr/2mm….i wonder if he were offered a milb contract if he would take it or just retire…id rather have him on the 40 man for next year than luke voit, although his #s outside of yankee stadium were pretty bad. From the club’s pov he would certainly sell tickets…February 15, 2018 at 10:43 am #43897
What does Holliday have to offer anymore? His ability to play defense is beyond below average.He is good for a Homerun everyu now and then.Why take up a roster spot from a younger guy who can pinch hit and play defense? Makes no sense to me.It
s one thing the Cards already have-RH batters who play 1B-OF (Jose Martinez,Luke Voit,Rangel Ravelo) and RH hitting OF guys-Adolis Garcia,Tyler ONeill,
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