Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2017-2018
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October 26, 2017 at 4:12 pm #36933
also that’s again not the point…
the point is in generalities…not the specifics… it’s about getting the guy we WANT instead of the guy we are forced to settle on
hindsight on performance doesnt really matter to me…the point i was making was on being aggressive in the market to get the things you want instead of hoping that what falls to you gives you good returns
i think missing on Price lead to Leake and missing Heyward led eventually to Fowler…perhaps the deals will end up being awesome in hindsight but that really isnt the point
if you target Machado and get Asdrubal Cabrera…it doesnt mean the Cabrera signing is bad for whatever it is worth… the point is you didnt get your top choice….and that is what i woudl like us to do
sure you strike out doing that sometimes too (perhaps Cecil?)…
still if you are targeting an Ace and settle for a #3
October 26, 2017 at 5:19 pm #36944Brian, I was making no point regarding Leake’s value to the Cardinals. Didn’t even ssperate out his Seattle stats from his StL stats. Only saying that the guy that looks like he might be the guy you wanted isn’t always the one you wanted. The fact STL basically paid for him to go away isn’t really relevant.
October 26, 2017 at 5:54 pm #36946Yes, I get your broad point and did not disagree. I only noted that the cost of the 5.6 WAR was higher than represented.
October 27, 2017 at 8:43 am #36964CC…i think that is a very good point… a second choice isnt always a “bad” choice… and no one knows how Heyward or Price would have done in STL or Leake somewhere else…
what i am saying is that we have swung and missed at some big targets recently, (you can include some international signings as well)…if the front office obviously targets these guys for a reason and actively is willing to pay a lot for them even beyond their comfort at times…unfortunately they may hve to redefine that level of discomfort if they are wanting to continually target some of these higher end FAs and trade targets etc…. either that, or stop targeting them and spend your time on things you can comfortably attain….
i still believe we would might have made the playoffs had we targeted Gray from Oakland (for Piscotty and Flaherty) earlier instead of investing so much in a possible Lynn deal that never happened… not only would it have helped during the year it would have helped in the offseason to make some of these decisions easier…from whether to re-sign Lynn or not, to finding another potential starter, to clearing up a 40 man spot, to the outfield and young starter clutter, and longer term rotation concerns
and at the end of the day it is all in the past…but it seems to be part of a potential pattern where we want to do something but it is comfortable enough or we hit our line in the sand…and other teams chomp at the bit and take advantage of us doing so… whether it is the Padres just waiting for us to not protect a prospect, or us investing too much time in a Lynn deal that had to be perfect, or missing out on Robert, or not throwing the extra money at Heyward or Price, or GOurriel (possibly both of them), even to missing out on Kang by a few bucks a while back…
We have so many moves that seemingly need to take place this offseason that we need to be prepared for some of them to be uncomfortable if we want to get them done…..it may not work out and we may end up with second choices who end up ok or even good, we may lose prospects in the Rule 5, we may get stuck with paying more for a lesser talent…
i guess to me id just rather lose the extra money or prospects on what we actually want rather than what we have to settle for…. IF i am going to give up more
sorry…morning babbling…
October 28, 2017 at 4:58 am #37002Mo’s “comfort zone” needs an upgrade from iPhone 1 to at least the iPhone 7…. when it was working, great, but it’s not!! Spend in prospects and money to get two Middle of the order guys, an decent starter who will throw 160+ and two guys to compete for the closer role. OR Cards fans won’t have anything to do again next October!
October 28, 2017 at 7:15 am #37008Nice article on Holland.I would have to say No thanks to paying that much money for any closer or any pitcher.21 million too steep for my comfort level.Why not sign Niscasio and a Cishek/Axford type to go with Lyons?
October 28, 2017 at 11:55 am #37016The Marlins figure to be trading Gordon and Stanton, at a minimum. If not all three:
https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/10/26/16089482/marlins-dee-gordon-marcell-ozuna-giancarlo-stanton-are-2017-gold-glove-award-finalistsOctober 29, 2017 at 9:05 pm #37034IN regards to pouncing on Greg Holland, wouldn’t it likely cost a compensatory pick? Given the money involved that might be turned down, a qualifying offer would be a no brainer.
October 29, 2017 at 9:08 pm #37035I think we should have pursued Holland last year. We could have guaranteed him the closer job, and be the one getting a pick from the qualifying offer.
October 29, 2017 at 9:52 pm #37037Scott, I am with you on the first point, but not the second.
You are absolutely correct on the QO. After Holland declines his option, the Rockies could make him a qualifying offer, which he would almost certainly decline. In that case, if the Cards sign him, they would forfeit their
number 19 overall pick in the first roundsecond- or third-round pick in the 2018 draft, adding a major additional expense to signing him.(This assumes they haven’t/won’t sign another qualifying free agent as well. If so, they would lose their
second-roundthird- or fourth-round pick for Holland, less painful.)However it seems like a hindsight criticism to suggest the Cards should have signed ANY closer at this time last year, and in reality, Holland in 2017 would not have made sense for either side. The Cards had other priorities – outfield and left-handed relief. Further, unless the Cards made a huge guarantee for Holland’s 2017 contract, which they would not have done given his health questions, Boras would never have brought him to StL.
Remember that Holland made $6 million of $8 million offered on games finished incentives this season. At this time last year, Oh was coming off a strong 2016 and had another year to go, plus Rosenthal was also healthy. Given that, there seemed no way Holland could make that games finished money with St. Louis. The Cardinals would never have guaranteed Holland the closer job with the two returnees and with him coming off surgery.
Boras needed to take Holland to a team that did not have a clear closer for 2017, which is what he did. He also wouldn’t stack up his closer clients on the same team with both heading toward free agency and wanting to cash in with long-term deals. For 2017, the Cards just did not match up.
October 29, 2017 at 10:32 pm #37039If I’m reading the new CBO tweaks to the QO’s correctly, teams will now lose their 2nd overall pick for signing a player with a QO attached to him. There are other nuances, but that can be read here:
https://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offerOctober 29, 2017 at 10:48 pm #37041I read that too, BigSmitty, but I think that section applies to teams whose first-round pick is protected (top 10). Not clearly worded.
October 29, 2017 at 11:17 pm #37047Upon further review… Now, I think you are on the right track, Big Smitty. If the Cards did not exceed the luxury cap and did not receive revenue sharing money, they would lose their second highest selection (not necessarily second-rounder) plus $500K in international cap money.
Update: The Cards get a Competitive Balance pick in Round A in 2018, which is between the first and second rounds. Not as painful as losing the 19th overall pick.
October 30, 2017 at 9:26 am #37062And if we tender Lynn then he signs elsewhere for at least $50M we would get a comp pick after the second round? Is that correct?
October 30, 2017 at 9:33 am #37063If we believe the Cards received revenue sharing, then the Lynn comp pick would be after the first round. If they did not, then it would be after the second round.
If the Cards get that “after first round” Lynn comp pick, then their third-highest pick would be the second of the two picks following the first round – the Competitive Balance one.
At least that is the way I currently interpret it.
October 30, 2017 at 10:26 am #37067PadsFSParticipantMan, that is so convoluted.
October 30, 2017 at 10:32 am #37068PadsFSParticipantHolland probably lands a 4yr/$60M deal this offseason.
Perhaps we can offer an opt-out option and get a better deal. I don’t really like Holland as our FA signing, but that’s probably what he will get.
I’d much rather go after Addison Reed. He was traded so no draft pick loss. He’s younger (29), he’s not expecting to be the closer. His velocity has held steady. He’ll likely be cheaper too and he’s pretty healthy.
Reed and Nicacio are my ideal choices.
October 30, 2017 at 11:00 am #37072Reed makes sense…has definitely rebounded after a couple down years
i like Nicasio too…and we can also remember that he has it in him to be stretched out to be starter too…im not sure i want him for that, but it is good to know he has that ability
I am still interested in Duke….maybe i shouldn’t be…but he isnt Randy Choate which i think people think of him as…he came back and was pretty effective, but with a normal offseason he could get back to being a very good setup man. I doubt he gets a huge deal, and having another backend level lefty that isnt a LOOGY could be a pretty nice thing.
Lyons, Duke, Cecil
Nicasio, Reed, Brebbia
with Bowman, Tuivalalanot too bad…doesnt WOW you but could be a matchup nightmare late in games
any thoughts on snagging Ziegler in a deal with the Marlins…he has a contract they’d like to move id think
October 30, 2017 at 11:10 am #37073PadsFSParticipantJoe Smith, Bryan Shaw, and Jake McGee would be fine as well.
October 30, 2017 at 1:41 pm #3707614NyquisTParticipantMr Keymaster…. whatever the case with the Lynn pick, it is still going to be 3 picks in the first two rounds. A lot better than the ’17 draft! {{{Unless we lose one via free-agent signing}}}. All this and more in less than 8 months.
October 30, 2017 at 2:12 pm #37077Pads…i like those Cleveland guys too… you trust McGee though? He seemed pretty up and down all year
October 30, 2017 at 3:04 pm #37079I like Duke or other lefty if we consider giving Lyons a shot at the rotation. Otherwise we have already have Cecil Lyons, and Sherrif as lefties for the pen.
I know Lyons struggled a little in his inicial attempts as a starter, but that was several years ago. I would certainly like to think he has matured as a pitcher since then.
October 31, 2017 at 9:26 am #37097I would definitely bring back Nicasio. He has electric stuff and a bulldog mentality.
I would also consider Neshek on a one year deal, see what Cishek might want. I would consider bringing Duke back if he was cheap enough. He is absolutely better than Choate ever was. Also, the Royals might move Herrera since he only has one year of control left.
October 31, 2017 at 9:27 am #37098PadsFSParticipantThat’s the first I’ve heard of Lyons moving back to the rotation. I thought that ship sailed with his performance this year? He did make four starts with Memphis in 2017.
I’m fine with Cecil and Lyons as the LH pitchers with Sherriff backing them up in AAA.
Also, Corey Littrell should be back on track and he is dominant against LH hitters. Jordan Schafer may also be pitching in Memphis in 2018.
October 31, 2017 at 10:09 am #37101PadsFSParticipantI trust McGee. All of his numbers in 2017 were more in line with what he did with the Rays. His 2016 was abysmal, but that will also keep his cost low. He also has one of the highest velocities among FA relievers.
I really want to add several relievers. At least two though.
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