October 23, 2017 at 11:46 am #36666
I can see the Cubbies trading Baez and Schwarber for Archer and Colome. That would replace Arrieta and Davis cheaply enough that they could still add Darvish ($25mm aav), JD Martinez ($22mm aav), a quality middle reliever ($7mm), and re-sign Jay or someone similar ($8mm). They could still get under the luxury tax and on paper would be by far the best team in baseball.October 23, 2017 at 12:16 pm #36668
I could see that too while the Cardinals sit around and watch.October 23, 2017 at 12:24 pm #36670
That’s a depressing scenario.October 23, 2017 at 1:42 pm #36677
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs do all of the above and then some. They have a very aggressive front office and they now feel entitled.
On another topic, most on this board, myself included, have been screaming for a MOTO bat. I keep pondering how in the heck did the Dodgers steam roll the Cubs with a lineup that didn’t look very intimidating on paper.
Taylor: Few ever heard of him before this season. Flash in the pan?
Seager: Missed the NLDS. A very good hitter but not really an elite slugger.
Turner: Very good hitter, not an elite slugger, but very good.
Bellinger: Could be considered an elite slugger but small sample size.
Puig: Who knows what you get from this guy from one minute to the next. I think mercurial fits the bill.
Barnes/Grandal: Decent players, nothing special.
Forsythe: Decent player, nothing special.
Pederson: Their version of Grichuk.
K. Hernandez: A combo of Joe McEwing and Tom Lawless
The point is you don’t have to be the ’27 Yankees to win the World Series.October 23, 2017 at 2:27 pm #36683
True, though most of our team is at Grichuk’s level and not very good like Seager…October 23, 2017 at 2:39 pm #36684
The Dodgers are paying Crawford ($21.9M), Ethier ($17.5M), and Gonzalez ($21.0M) to not even play this year. It must be nice to have that kind of payroll.October 23, 2017 at 9:45 pm #36712
What do you have to be to win the WS?October 24, 2017 at 1:20 am #36718
Ran across this article so I thought I would post the link.October 24, 2017 at 10:01 am #36750
What do you have to be to win the WS?
Well I think high quality starting pitching, a lockdown bullpen, and good situational hitting is a good place to start.October 24, 2017 at 3:49 pm #36791
Sounds good to me.October 25, 2017 at 9:47 am #36842
Mo recently stated something to the effect that Molina was the only untouchable this offseason. I’ve been thinking about that. It seems to me that the only real advantage we have over the Cubs right now is young, controllable pitching, therefore, I don’t think I would be trading any of that away.
We are not going to be able to out slug the Cubs in the foreseeable future even if we do add a big bat so let’s focus on our strength. True, the Cubs may deal some young bats for young elite pitching like Archer, but for now, we have the advantage there. They are most likely losing Arrieta and Lackey, and Lester will be 34 next season and starting to show signs of slowing down. That really leaves them with Hendricks and Quintana as young guns.
I say all of this to recommend that we add CMart, Reyes, and Weaver to the untouchable list and I would have to be blown away to consider dealing Flaherty, Hudson, Gomber, or any of the rest. I’m sure the Marlins or whoever else we deal with will ask for young pitching but I would say no unless we are made an offer we just can’t refuse. We have about 50 outfielders we need to trade plus a few infield pieces too.
October 25, 2017 at 10:09 am #36844
- This reply was modified 3 months, 4 weeks ago by gscottar.
I get your points, but I sense you may be underestimating the financial clout the Cubs have behind them to get some of the pitching help they need from the free agent market.
I don’t see the Cardinals trading as an all or nothing proposition. Trading away SOME of “the rest” may be the best way to help the team improve overall. The pitching is likely going to be more appealing to potential trade partners.October 25, 2017 at 10:51 am #36845
agreed on the Cubs just buying whatever they need to fill any holes…with how cheap their core offensive players and contributors are they really wont be pushing much money anyways
they are at 177million right now…that bumps down to 94million for 2018 without additions and raises
roughly 83million just to not go over payroll of this year
so for giggles:
Darvish 25mil per year
Arrieta 20mil per year
Davis 15mil per year
that’s only 60 million
Throw in Cain for 15mil per year
add in some raises and they are still right about where they were this year
that doesnt even take into account any trades they could pull off with their young guys…a Schwarber for Archer deal would wreck the NL Central…they could throw in others to make it work and still have a big advantage in budget wars and young cheap talent…
let’s say Hendricks + Schwarber for Archer…yeah they lose their own young SP cheap talent but they get back a front end starter for cheap…they lose Schwarber who doesnt have a fit anyways…Rays get a young SP and a young power slugger…if they could get away without moving Hendriks in the deal great…but i think Hendricks Schwarber would get it done…it woudl add a bit to the budget but ARcher is cheap
they go into 2018 with:
-Darvish, Archer, Lester, Arrieta,…Montgomery or whomever….doesnt really matter
-Cain, Happ, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Heyward, Rizzo, Contreras …no order
-Davis, Edwards in the back end…youngsters and a couple cheap RPs fill out the rest
-bench is Almora, Zobrist, Caritini etc.
i dont see any real weakness outside of a #5 starter and a little bullpen depth…but they have 4 Aces and Davis and Edwards are pretty nice out of the back 2
and that really isnt with spending much more money than they already have but so what? it’s not like they are hurting for money and their kids big paydays are still aways offOctober 25, 2017 at 10:59 am #36847
Even if we have an advantage in young pitching, that advantage will not manifest itself through our young guys maturing into their primes and Cubbie guys getting old for another year or two. Are you suggesting that the Cardinals not really try to be competitive for a couple of years?October 25, 2017 at 11:02 am #36848
We need to make a lot of changes though and protecting more guys from the possibility of moving makes it harder to make a deal happen
to me…Molina, Wainwright, CMart are untouchable…
Reyes is close but i’d offer him up on the right deal to make it impact the rest of the deal or the farm
I was fine with moving Kelly for the right deal before Knizner had a big year and i still am ok with it…
Weaver is close now…but i like that his value is really high right now…he may be a good sell high guy who actually can hold that sell high price with his youth and upside
but again..moving any of these guys has to be for good deals…I dont want to lose Kelly and Reyes in a deal for Donaldson…now if it was Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna…maybe we have something going…especially if we coudl pair that with a deal for Stanton utilizing a quantity style deal instead of super high quality…
it will be a crazy offseason though….we could go in so many directions and each move will effect each future move….i think we are going to make at least one big move very fast out of the gate into the offseason…and maybe some smaller deals to free up 40 man space..
there are ways i’d prefer us to go…but there are so many options at this point it is hard to even think what is “best”
but GScott…i get the sentiment…i’d prefer to keep out young pitchign too…but i just dont see how we can while still making the deals we seemingly need to make to bring the changes we want…unless we go the FA only route…which still woudl hurt the 40man problems and glut in the outfield..October 25, 2017 at 12:03 pm #36857
The Cubs will have 2018 as their last year to not worry about total payroll. They have Bryant, Hendricks, Russell and LaStella as first time arbitration eligibles this year. Next year, they have Baez, Montgomery, Schwarber and Edwards as first time arbitration eligible. Contreras and Wilson will be first time arbitration eligible in 2020.
When you throw in whoever they sign to complete their starting rotation and bullpen, they will start to raise payroll quickly over the next 2 years without some changes to their core. If Heyward opts out after 2018 or 2019, it would be one of the best things that could happen to the Cubs. If the Cubs chose to do whatever it takes, they could keep their core together until 2020 or 2021.October 25, 2017 at 12:41 pm #36862
The Cubs spent $164M on payroll in 2017, up from $145M in 2016, and they have $117M committed for 2018. I don’t see where $177M or $94M came from.October 25, 2017 at 1:19 pm #36863
In trying to determine what Cardinals will do as far as trades and free agent signings I question our upper management on some strange and surprising moves, or non-moves. I list them as such:
1) WHY DID WE NOT FIX THE BULLPEN?
I believe we would have made the playoffs with a better bullpen
2) The Chad Huffman era
Why did we call him up when our bullpen was and still is, a mess?
3) We trade for Juan Nicasio with a small cup of coffee left in the season.
Did management decide to bail out on this season and no t tell us?
4) And if were giving up on this season, why not cut loose Duke, and OH in September. Oh pitched like 3 games in a month, or so it seemed. Try some of our other young arms out?
I don’t like being a pessimist, but our management has a lot to do this offseason, and while I think can be done, I have much less faith in them this offseason. I hope I am wrong.October 25, 2017 at 2:19 pm #36864
Scott, I will take a shot at your questions. I hope others offer their perspectives, too.
1) They had been willing to make small deals to improve the pen in recent years – until (very late in) 2017.
2) Huffman came up on June 7 to replace Gant. The Cards spent much of the season with eight relievers. It just seemed like there were only a few the coaches had confidence in. When Huffman came up, the offense was unsettled. Wong was injured and Peralta was on his way out. Grichuk was still trying to work his way back from Palm Beach. Other than being Carpenter’s college buddy, I could see no reason why Huffman was there. However, in fairness, there was not a lot in the cupboard. DeJong and Pham were already up by then, so the only other logical choices might have been Voit or Bader. Either had more upside than Huffman. Sierra was down in Springfield playing every day as he needs to do.
3) My guess is they decided to add Nicasio after they knew Rosenthal was done. I don’t know if they could have gotten him directly from Pittsburgh earlier, but he was not the only fish in the sea.
4) They would not have needed to release Duke or Oh in September. With expanded rosters, they had 37 active players, including 18 pitchers. If they wanted to see more of the young guys, there was nothing to stop them.
“Giving up on the season” is nothing anyone would ever admit. Though I get where your perception is coming from, there are always tickets to sell and ratings to chase. I sense they decided they were not going to throw much money at what looked by then to be a low-odds opportunity in 2017.October 25, 2017 at 4:09 pm #36866
Pads…i just went to Spotrac…i guess it was off…but it wasnt off by a crazy amount of anything the basic idea still applies
also on the baseball reference site it looks like that is pretty close
but again the exact amount isnt the point anyways…they can bring on major salaries to fill all their desires and still be around what they paid this yearOctober 26, 2017 at 1:23 pm #36907
I haven’t underestimated the Cubs at all the last several years. If anything I was leading the charge explaining how they were building a monster while the Cardinals were sitting around. I could see it coming while some on this board doubted it would actually happen. Well it happened.
Having said that, Theo Epstein is no dummy and I don’t think they will spend $50m on their rotation this winter even if they have the money to do it. He knows that would cripple them in soon time. They might go after one of the big pitchers like Darvish or Arrieta but then they will trade some assets for a more affordable ace like Archer then have plenty of money left to rebuild the bullpen and add a another bat if they want.
I’m not advocating for the Cardinals to sit around and do nothing this winter. I think we can make a couple of moderately big moves that push up close to the 90 win mark (Simmons, Cain, or Bruce, etc…) then go for the jugular in 2019 when the Cubs will be farther along in their boom/bust cycle and will be forced to pay more to their young sluggers.October 26, 2017 at 2:21 pm #36918
thejager – both of those take MLB’s valuation on signing bonuses (average it out over 3 years) on Heyward ($20M) and Lester ($30M). They also have them paying the full year’s salary on Quintana, Avila, Rivera, and Wilson, which they aren’t. Then they have the Cubs not covering Miguel Montero even though he was acquired by Toronto in trade 7/3/17 after being DFA by Chicago Cubs 6/28/17, with Cubs paying most of $6,885,245 left on contract.
They also have all the little minor league contracts for shuttle players so they are more accurate in that aspect.
5M – Lester
7.3M – Heyward
3M – Quintana
1M – Avila
.88M – Rivera
1.4M – Wilson
6.9M – Montero
Total $25M-ish minus the minor leaguers ~5M-ish gets us to the same payroll.
1M – ROctober 26, 2017 at 2:42 pm #36922
i dont think the Cubs will spend all that money either…i am just saying that they CAN spend a lot of money if they so choose
again..the point of my numbers was to say that the Cubs have a lot of money they are taking off the books this year and they could spend even more than they did this year if they wanted so the exact amount isnt the point… the point is they have a huge payroll and obviously can spend whatever they want and arent afraid to spend a lot to get what they want
i dont think they will, as i agree with what someone else said about their kids…they have another couple years but those big paydays for their cheap young players are coming and they are going to be huge paydays when they do come…which might lead them to trade a few of them right now to get bigger parts for their rotation longer term and then those big paydays would be lesser…if they need to start paying their kids around 2020-2021 they could trade a few and sign a few short term Fas that would coincide with those big raises coming onto the books
but there is a real possibility they throw big money to keep Davis and Arrieta and then also trade for a big time pitcher on a lower amount contract (ala Quintana) like Archer or Stroman….then replace the lost parts with a few other FA parts
i think we need to be fast or we will get outmaneuvered…we have assets and money, and may have to pay abit more to act fast, but i think if we wait too long we will end up with Mike Leake solutions when what we really want are David Price solutionsOctober 26, 2017 at 3:09 pm #36928
Mike Leake soltion 2016-2017 fwar 5.6 2016-2017 salary $27 million
David price solution 2016-2017 fwar 5.9 2016-2017 salary $60 million
The Leake solution doesn’t look so bad.October 26, 2017 at 3:48 pm #36931
I get your point, but the money gap is not quite that wide. The Cards’ cost was higher because of the $17 MM plus the international cap money needed to make the rest of Leake’s contract go away. So they spent $44 MM plus to get that 5.6 WAR.
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