Slow Market. Owner collusion? Player strike?

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This topic contains 79 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by  mspaid 1 week, 1 day ago.

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    Jim Bowden had some interesting comments on MLB radio this morning. While he did not use the “C” word, he did seem to hint at it. His take is that he finds it strange that the offers on the big free agents are almost identical. For example, all of the offers for JD Martinez, Darvish, Arrieta, Hosmer, etc… are the same for each player.

    While it makes sense that analytics does explain this phenomenon he asks what are the odds that all 30 front offices would adapt at the exact same time instead of it happening over a period of a few years? When Oakland started the moneyball era by emphasizing OBP it took a few years before all of the teams were doing that. Last year Cespedes got a contract that he wouldn’t get today. Why did all of a sudden in 2018 all of the teams get smart at the same time?

    I’m not suggesting collusion myself. I’m just paraphrasing Bowden’s comments. Being a former GM I value his opinion.



    I believe the Cardinals and others now have even more sophisticated analytics to measure projected future performance.

    BDW and Mo said at WWU one time, that they place future value on a number of analytics that measure runs produced and runs prevented for each player. That could be arm strength from the outfield, range in the infield, pitcher’s defensive acuity, a player’s ability to move runners over, speed from 1st to third, clutch hitting stats, etc. It determines what kind of contract they would offer to a FA or what they would give up to get a player in a trade.

    The only player that the Cardinals stretched way over the projected value for was Pujols, because he was such an icon here.

    With all the new analytical tools available to GM’s now in projecting future performance, the 6 and 7 year contracts for players after they turn 30 may be a thing of the past.



    mspaid –

    I think you missed my point with regard to the fans. I’ll say it again. If the fans see that the teams are not paying hundreds of millions of dollars for players, they might protest by not buying tickets. If that happens, teams will have to lower ticket prices in order to sell tickets. This, effectively, takes some of the money that the teams would otherwise be getting from the elevated ticket prices, and gives it back to the fans in the form of lower ticket prices. As far as raising the MLB minimum, that’s just something I’d like to see. Don’t know if there’s much chance of that happening.

    Also, mspaid, words like ‘Marxian’ have no place in this forum. And, admittedly, words like ‘redistribute’ don’t either. Please refrain, and so will I.


    Not only would I like to see the minimum salaries increase I also don’t like how arbitration is done. But I don’t either of these being changed unless the MLBPA finally realizes they haven’t gotten the best CBAs.




    Cardinal fans have seen for years that their owners are not spending hundred of million of dollars, ticket prices have not decreased and attendances is still up. 3.4 million fans last year…second highest in baseball. I can’t speak for other teams but if you expect Cardinal ticket prices to drop you will be waiting for a long time.

    I will not suggest to you what words you can or cannot use and I would appreciate it if you would please extend to be the same courtesy.

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