Slow Market. Owner collusion? Player strike?

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This topic contains 79 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by  mspaid 1 week, 1 day ago.

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  • #43173

    mudville
    Participant

    I hadn’t thought of it that way, that the system isn’t broken. But I can see where that could be the case. What you could easily say is that a free system is simply correcting itself, freely.

    #43192

    1964cards
    Participant

    I think that “cardinals2016” nailed it. There are several factors working against this year’s free agent class. The players can complain, but I am not sure what the remedy is.

    #43197
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Players are getting screwed twice:
    First they are highly underpaid for their first 6 years of their MLB career and many are underpaid according to what their market value would be. Then they get screwed in the back end because they are deemed too old and teams don’t want to pay for past performance.

    So its not just a market correction where teams are using more analytics. There are serious issues at play here and like many people I’m not sure how the MLBPA can fix this problem.

    #43199

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    It is not as if the six year free agent situation is new. Also, many players have figured out how to take advantage by cashing in early – signing long-term deals before free agency. Wong and Piscotty are among them.

    Why should a new team pay for past performance received by another team?

    The players are screwed only because they agreed to a contract that has turned out badly for them and now they don’t like it.

    #43201

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Even in arbitration, the players can command hefty salaries. I mean, Marcell Ozuna is “cost controlled”, but he is still making $9 million this year….

    But yes, if they are going to bargain for something in the next CBA, it should be for fewer years of pre-arbitration/arbitration control.

    I don’t see an issue with this year’s slow market, as the salaries that have been given have been in line with estimates/historical norms, and relievers are getting historical highs. The issue is teams no longer want to hand out contracts longer than 5 years, and players refuse to accept that.

    #43209

    gscottar
    Participant

    I have heard some say that the system should be changed so players can become free agents after 3 or 4 years since that would be their “prime years”. I would be very much against that idea because small market teams would be totally disadvantaged if they had to lose a player after 3 or 4 years. At least now they can keep a player 6 years if they choose.

    #43211

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    I dont remember who said it but the person who said long term contracts dont usually work out is on the right track.

    Long term contracts for average big leaguers is correct.

    The problem is most of these guys arent that great. Darvish is walking the line. Martinez is the same but his defense is falling off badly which limits everything. Arrieta used to be great and has fallen off so much that you cant count him as much more than average.

    When you have a choice between a bunch of decent players this year, and a boatload of great ones worth at least ten times the value next year (and I would argue closer to 100 times more) that you can get relatively cheaper…

    Umm… Duh… Not a hard decision.

    #43215

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Well, gscottar:
    – From a player’s perspective, it would make much more sense to be under control for only 4 years…
    – Many of these “small market” teams are not small markets. For instance, Miami, Tampa and Oakland are all larger than St. Louis, both in terms of population and media viewership. The owners there have consistently managed their teams as “small market” teams as a way of maximizing profits (they receive $35 million per year in revenue sharing just from the competitive balance tax).

    #43217
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Brian,

    The 6-year control a team had on a player wasn’t a problem in the past because they would still get paid once they reached FA. But now that teams are not willing to pay them for past performance the 6-year control is creating a bigger problem for players. So yeah its been a round for a long time but its just recently become a problem because of other factors. Do you disagree with this?

    #43219

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    I think the reason six years is an issue now is because of the perception is that more of those cheaper players are taking the jobs away from the expensive free agents. That is the rub, not the fact the younger players are indentured longer. (I haven’t seen the data on this.)

    Perhaps I could be convinced if there was data that showed those who just reached free agency are a higher percentage of the unsigned free agents. But I doubt that is the case because the guys at six years of service are in the prime of their careers. The Matt Hollidays near the end of the line are the guys really worried. Even the Hosmers know they have five year offers, but want seven or nine.

    #43221

    gscottar
    Participant

    Well, gscottar:
    – From a player’s perspective, it would make much more sense to be under control for only 4 years…
    – Many of these “small market” teams are not small markets. For instance, Miami, Tampa and Oakland are all larger than St. Louis, both in terms of population and media viewership. The owners there have consistently managed their teams as “small market” teams as a way of maximizing profits (they receive $35 million per year in revenue sharing just from the competitive balance tax).

    I guess it depends on how “small market” is defined. Miami, Tampa, and Oakland might have larger population bases than St. Louis but they most assuredly don’t generate as much revenue. The attendance figures for those three teams are pitiful.

    If we went to a system of free agency after four years players like David Price, Josh Donaldson, etc… would stay at “small market” teams much less than they do now which would only increase the gulf between the have and have nots. I don’t see how that would be good for baseball.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 5 days ago by  gscottar.
    #43224

    forsch31
    Participant

    The other point is that a lot of these current free agents would sign large contracts if they were willing to sign a contract with a lesser length. Teams are willing to pay large amounts but only for a short period of time.

    If JD Martinez would be willing to sign for 3 years, I believe some team would pay him $28-$30 million per year. I don’t see how that is such a bad thing for players. Maybe someone could explain why the players are entitled to a 7 year contract.

    #43227

    858booyah
    Participant

    Because He’s coming off a year he’l likely never replicate and his agent see this as a way to parlay this in some sort mega contract.

    #43228

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Well, that’s very good. But maybe JD Martinez should actually play defense if he wants a mega contract.

    He has a five year offer in the $100-120 million range, which is more than he’s made his entire career. He wants to sit out half the year? That will cost him $10 million in lost income.

    There is only one team with the need and budget space for his services. Supply meet Demand.

    #43230

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Here is how much each team has spent so far:
    FA spending to date

    Half the league has spent $10 million or less, including four teams that have spent $0.

    Well, maybe there is some collusion going on…

    #43262

    mudville
    Participant

    Doesn’t ‘collusion’ mean that teams get together and make an agreement to do, or not to do, something?
    If this definition is correct, then how does this ‘FA spending to date’ report indicate that collusion is a going on? What’s going on is a market correction. Its as simple as that.

    #43268

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    You could make the argument that teams aren’t really trying to improve themselves.

    Even in years when teams aren’t going for it, they usually spend something in free agency. You can’t tell me half the teams in baseball don’t have holes to fill on their roster.

    #43269

    NJ315
    Participant

    They may have holes but they aren’t willing to saddle themselves with long term contracts. If the players want to sign for 5 years they will find a taker. Especially those 30 and under.

    #43270

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster
    #43271

    gscottar
    Participant
    #43272

    gscottar
    Participant
    #43273

    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    As usual, Bernie blows with the wind.

    #43280
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    What exactly do you take issue with with, CC?

    #43281

    858booyah
    Participant

    Well Cardinals2016 I think he has a pretty good deal in place if he wanted to take it. Defense or not he’s got a good offer.

    It’s a weird situation in Boston. They have a young core of OF’ers and Hanley at DH with Moreland at 1st. They regressed on offense but you still have to think Bradley rebounds a bit a Bennitendi gets better. Hanley 22 million option vests with a shade under 500 PA’s. It would appear they need to move someone.

    #43282

    bccran
    Participant

    I don’t particularly like Bernie, but he makes some excellent points this time around.

    Add in that baseball seems to be a bit of a declining sport in this country. It’s one of the reasons why Rawings Corporation is again on the market for sale. More youngsters are opting for constant motion type sports – soccer, hockey, lacrosse, etc. That doesn’t bode well for baseball attendence in the future as these kids start to grow up.

    Lastly, as the U.S. population ages, a portion of the fanbase is going to be on fixed incomes and unwilling to pay the skyrocketing cost of seats, concessions, parking, etc. And these are fans who have been dedicated baseball fans for decades.

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