Slow Market. Owner collusion? Player strike?

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This topic contains 79 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by  mspaid 1 week, 1 day ago.

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  • #43032

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster
    #43033

    NJ315
    Participant

    Billionaires fighting millionaires over our money. No sympathy for either side. Go on strike you may kill this time the golden goose.

    #43036
    bicyclemike
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    The market does seem slow. Still though, maybe the players think it’s wrong but you are not going to get any sympathy at all from fans. The “goose that laid the golden egg” analogy is accurate. Multi-millionaires going on strike is ridiculous.

    Professional sports is at a bit of a precarious time. The NFL has lost much of it’s luster, and if other sports continue to disregard the impact of their actions on the fans, it could lead to an era where sports as an industry is not overly popular. People love their teams, but will always find other things to do when the industry stops distributing it’s product.

    My guess is guys will get deals and we’ll see things back to normal by the end of February. Some guys might be better signing one-year agreements, and then hit the open market again next year.

    #43037

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Not all that complicated, IMO. The Players Union has figured out the contract they agreed to is not all they hoped it would be. There is a strong over cap penalty, which is tightening down the traditional big spenders. And there is no real penalty to teams that tank/maximize profits. Together, this elevates the allure of younger players and decreases the value of the older ones.

    #43039

    gscottar
    Participant

    Almost all of the front offices are ran by the analytical types which has resulted in Groupthink when it comes to valuing players. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. The days of big deals done on the back of a napkin while drinking whiskey and smoking cigars are long gone.

    #43042

    Bw52
    Participant

    The owners and GMs have finally figured out longterm free agent deals rarely are worth the dollars over the length of the contract.So now the players cry foul because the Golden Goose has constipation.I find it beyond silly that the players actually would expect the aveage fan to feel any sympathy for those poor millionare ballplayers .As for the owners……they live in a different world .

    #43050

    mudville
    Participant

    If this goes down the way it looks like it is going to go down, i.e. shorter contracts, less money for players passing their prime, I bet the intensity, the focus, the quality of play of all players will dramatically increase.

    #43052

    858booyah
    Participant

    You think if indeed it was collusion it was Dewitt who was one of the owners who started it all?

    Do you think that they wanted to do more but maybe Bowtie was told to stop and to give the now famous statement at WWU?

    I know one thing when the dust settles It’ll be one of the more exciting and frantic signing periods I’ve seen. IT might lead to a strike or lock out at some point but at least it won’t be dull at the end of Feb. lol

    #43055

    nbr1hawkeye
    Participant

    I couldn’t have said it better myself BW…

    #43056
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    When you have the commissioner of baseball give tanking his seal of approval there are issues. Rob Manfred is turning out to be a worse commissioner than Selig. At least 1/3 of MLB teams are tanking this season.

    #43063

    EuroWolf
    Participant

    Agree with your sentiments Bw and hawk.

    Was listening to Boras a couple days ago and he was espousing the likelihood of collusion due to the fact that, (a) teams needed players, (b) there were good players available, and (c) owners have the “ability” to pay the prices they’re asking. Part (c) makes me laugh. I have the “ability” to pay my neighbor’s son $500 to mow my lawn, but I’m not going to do it. Maybe the owners are finally showing some good sense and discipline on the long-term deals. And maybe it is due to the data and analytics available to them. Metrics-based decisions are often how billionaires become billionaires in the corporate world….making buy/sell decisions based on numbers that back them up.

    #43083

    gscottar
    Participant

    Regardless of who you think is right or wrong or what the cause is for the frozen stove it is becoming clear that the players haven’t been this angry since 1994. Ominous days ahead.

    #43111

    858booyah
    Participant

    How can these A-holes be angry?

    So if I buy the MLB pack and they go on strike or hold out. Does that mean im out the money I fork into it?

    #43136

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster
    #43137

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    I think it’s a confluence of factors:
    1. You have tanking teams not spending
    2. You have 2-3 teams trying to get under the luxury tax this year
    3. Teams have learned that these mega contracts usually turn into alabatrosses
    4. The players haven’t learned that these contracts turn into albatrosses, and think they should get paid like guys were getting paid before everyone learned this
    5. Boras represent a major portion of the top free agents that are not signed
    6. You have teams holding off until the free agent class of next year (hello Philadelphia Phillies)

    Finally, everybody is ignoring that most of the relievers have signed, and they are signing for historical highs for their roles. That seems to end the discussion of collusion right there.

    #43146

    TexasCard
    Participant

    I get what everyone is saying and agree for the most part. But there are some really talented guys still available and together they’d push for a playoff spot as has already been pointed out. The problem those players have is they are expecting way too much in this market. There are 5 guys that I’d love for the Cardinals to have any one of or two of and given the current payroll they could afford. That’s where I don’t understand why something can’t be worked out. Not saying it should be the Cardinals because they aren’t the only team in position to make such signings.

    It’s really hard to understand how 45 year old Bartolo Colon is on the verge of any type of deal yet Dervish, Lynn, Arrieta, etal are still out there 8 days before camps open. The Rangers for example need real pitching help yet aren’t going after legit pitching instead feeding off the scrape heap. So in a sense it is hard to understand from a players viewpoint as well. This year is hard to understand and something has to give. Maybe the Cardinals still have a shot to improve the club if they want to.

    #43151

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Darvish supposedly has an offer for 5 years, but wants 6. That’s a big part of the problem. I don’t think it’s the AAV that is the issue for most players – it is the years.

    And that’s where it gets ridiculous. The Rangers had to pay Cecil Fielder after he retired and could no longer play. The Marlins had to pay the estate of Jose Fernandez. The Royals had to pay the estate of Yordano Ventura.

    In any other world, where someone can’t fulfill a contract, the contract becomes void.

    And maybe these mega contracts wouldn’t go south if the players thought they had to earn their next contract.

    #43155

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Signing players past their age 34 is a craps-shoot. There are some great athletes that have defied father time… Nolan Ryan, Gordie Howe and Tom Brady. There’s a lot of intangibles: training, body maintenance, injury, and perhaps genetics and pure fate. Those who escape wearing down and injury through their late 30’s are few, so its always iffy.

    #43157
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    The biggest problem really for players is how the system is built. Owners get the players at their best for super cheap or extremely discounted for their first 6 years and then by the player become a FA they are deemed too old. Before analytics and economic experts became GMs that wasn’t a problem because teams didn’t have a problem for paying a players past. But that has all changed.

    #43158

    TexasCard
    Participant

    If teams don’t have insurance on the contracts such as the ones mentioned above I have sympathy for them. That’s business and unfortunately things happen. That’s why they have insurance on contracts and those guys were high profile guys that should have had that protection.

    #43160

    mspaid
    Participant

    Texascard: They have always had a shot to improve the team. They have plenty of money and prospects for trading. They drew 3.4 million last year and will do so this year as well. Why should they add to the cost side and reduce their profit? The roster is set and ready for 2018. Fans will have to hold their nose and hope for the best.

    #43166

    mudville
    Participant

    You’re right, 14NyquisT, some players have defied father time. Add to your list Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and future HOF reliever, Mariano Rivera with his 44 Saves at the age of 43. How much would the Yankees have won without Mariano Rivera?

    A term like ‘super cheap’ is purely relative. How many twenty-something kids get a chance to make a half million dollars a year? If a kid can only get one season in the Big Leagues, he has a darn good start to his young life. If he can stay around until free agency, or beyond, he can be set for life, financially.

    Every one of the remaining free agents who are still good enough to play could be signed right now, if they would be okay with signing for millions and millions of dollars, rather than millions and millions and millions and millions of dollars. The concern for remaining free agents has to be, that with roster space by now almost entirely accounted for, and with increasing interest in bringing up young, hungry prospects, some very good players might find themselves sitting all summer long rather getting paid millions of dollars.

    The bottom line to all of this is that change is happening, and the Agents are refusing to accept that. They’ve sold themselves to their players with arguments based on the way things have been. Now the market is making them into liars. It has to be humiliating for them. We know they are enraged.

    #43167

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    TexasCard, nothing is free in this world. I have been told that player contract insurance is very expensive because of course the underwriters have access to the risk info that everyone does. Some teams go partway only with insurance or not at all, depending on the situation (a term they call “self-insuring” the contract).

    #43168
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Mudville are you saying the system isn’t broken?

    #43169

    TexasCard
    Participant

    Got it BW but those guys listed above should have had some form on them as those were big money types. I’ve had immediate family in the game at the highest level so I understand how most of this works. Even I had the opportubity to play pro ball back in the day not for much money lol.

    I’m of no illusion the Cardinals intend to do anything else but like I said I’d like to see them add a corner infielder and another starter, both are there for the taking it just takes some of the cash they have. In the end, I know they won’t do it so we will just have to love the guys they’ve got. Hope for the best.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by  TexasCard.
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