October 27, 2017 at 7:02 am #36952
Sorry if this has been discussed but do we have a list of potential non-tender candidates compiled? I would suppose Trevor Rosenthal may be on the watch list. Who else? I think is an important topic given the holes that need to be filled and the plan to fill them.October 27, 2017 at 8:33 am #36962
Off the top of my head, the only others eligible are Lyons, Wacha, Grichuk and Garcia. Diaz is a special case but but I believe we can pay him the minimum if we so choose. I dont think any (other than possibly Rosy) will be non tendered.
October 27, 2017 at 10:58 am #36973
- This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by CariocaCardinal.
Yep, the only four arb eligible players we have are Rosey, Wacha, Lyons, and Grichuk.
I agree that Rosey is the only one non-tendered although I wish they could work out a two year deal.October 27, 2017 at 11:25 am #36976
Not to cover the same ground again, but Boras would seem to have little to no reason to give two discounted years to the Cards, knowing that Rosenthal is set to become free agent eligible next fall. I get why the Cards might like that, though, but it takes two to tango.October 27, 2017 at 1:01 pm #36978
No way is Wacha non-tendered. Grichuk also. Could get something for both with trades.October 27, 2017 at 1:33 pm #36979
Brian, I’m still not totally following that line of thinking about two discounted years.
Scenario One: Cards offer two year $10M contract. 2018: $2M, 2019: $8M
Scenario Two: Rosey is non-tendered. Does anyone sign him for 2018 for just one month of service? If so, for how much? He might end up with zero. $2M is more than zero. Then what kind of deal does he get for 2019 as a free agent coming off an injury? Greg Holland only got one year for $6M for 2017 so I don’t think it is a slam dunk Rosey gets a big offer, therefore, the 2 year $10M offer in scenario 1 may not sounds so bad.
October 27, 2017 at 5:11 pm #36982
- This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by gscottar.
Your math is off by just a tad. Holland’s contract is loaded with incentives and he made $16 MM this season, not $6 MM. That is really good for a guy who had not yet reached free agency, which is a key difference. Holland’s deal this season was for his final team control year. Rosenthal’s 2019 will be a free agent year.
Further, no arbitation-eligible player can take a salary cut of greater than 20 percent per the CBA. So, Rosenthal would have to make at least $5.12 million next year if he remained with the Cards.
Putting aside the free agency year difference for a minute, your two-year deal would be way more expensive. Using the minimum salary in 2018 and the Holland example for his 2019, Rosenthal would get $5+ MM in 2018 and the opportunity to make $18 MM in 2019. (Holland missed one additional $2 MM bonus opportunity this year, which is the difference between $16 and $18.)
(Then add in the additional value of 2019 being a free agent year for Rosenthal and salary inflation for it being two years later than Holland’s deal, and the money expectations would likely be even higher.)
However, the Cards will have already signed another expensive closer long before 2019, almost certainly on a long-term contract, and the team would far more likely be inclined to move on rather than be on the hook to also pay Rosenthal big money in 2019. And Boras would want assurances Rosenthal would be given a realistic opportunity to close in 2019 so he could make the contract incentives, the biggest of which are clip levels for games finished.
By the way, Holland and Rosenthal are both Boras clients, making the potential terms comparison potentially even more relevant for wherever Rosenthal ends up in 2019.
There are a whole bunch of other considerations, which I put in a recent in-depth article for members. Suffice it to say, it seems highly likely to me Rosenthal will be non-tendered and leave.November 3, 2017 at 10:50 am #37248
OK, I wasn’t aware that Holland’s salary was bumped due to incentives and I wasn’t aware of the CBA rule about no more than a 20% decrease for an arbitration player. You are correct then, the Cards won’t be doing a deal with Rosenthal.November 3, 2017 at 11:09 am #37250
It only makes sense to sign Rosenthal for this year if you are a non contending team. Sign him cheap, keep him on the 40 man roster and hope that when he comes off the DL he has enough value to flip for a decent prospect. The reality is that I expect Rosenthal to sit out all year and not sign until 2019. He wont sign for part of 2018 because that team would still hold his rights for 2019.November 6, 2017 at 5:12 pm #37332
Trevor Rosenthal has been given his unconditional release.November 6, 2017 at 5:57 pm #37336
Not a shock on Rosenthal.
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