Mo's view of the off season

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This topic contains 99 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by  bccran 4 months, 1 week ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 76 through 100 (of 100 total)
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  • #35739

    bccran
    Participant

    All the best, Brian.

    #35770

    thejager
    Participant

    Brian…i know you aren’t denying us features…i was just expressing why they could be useful as it pertains to the thread’s behavior…

    i know you’re doing your best…and that kind of personal help if we did want to talk to someone outside of the forum is pretty impressive…thanks for making that offer

    as for thread closing… that was just my opinion…i dont get my way in most things in life..so no big deal… but i still like to ask or state my opinions…

    thanks for taking the time

    nevertheless back to baseball talk indeed!

    #35779

    SoonerinNC
    Participant

    Black Hills
    Your approach is simply
    1) Bash everything about Matheny
    2) Bash anyone who supports Matheny
    3) Bash anyone who is neutral about Matheny and has something positive to say.
    4) Ignore any point of view other than your own.

    You are welcome to your world. Impossible to communicate with that frame of mind.

    #35780

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Folks, please stop talking about each other. Please.

    #35782

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Yesterday, I touched on the Cardinals struggles within the division this season. I put my thoughts together in this article.

    http://thecardinalnation.com/cardinals-road-back-should-begin-in-nl-central/

    #35790

    thejager
    Participant

    Brian….
    nice piece…

    i do wonder though how the numbers from last year might be skewed due to the Reds crazy hot start…they racked up a lot of wins against us and others in the division really early…then they came down to earth and became what we saw at the end of the year…and while you might blame it on pitching injuries…they added better pitchers to their rotation later in the year…really only Feldman was any good in the 1st half…

    the Reds deserved every win they got…but that early season Reds team seems an aberration…and due to the amount of interleague matchups early may have skewed the numbers a bit

    #35817

    forsch31
    Participant

    bccran

    Participant

    Terrific analysis, Sooner.

    We just pump along with good players up and down the lineup, but no
    true difference makers. It’s good enough to have a winning record, but not be a strong contender in the playoffs.

    Brian, going back to relievers.
    How does it calculate when we’re tied going into the 8th and a reliever gives up a run or runs? Or if we’re only behind be one run going into the 8th and the same thing happens?

    Here are the ERAs per inning –

    1st – 4.50
    2nd – 3.11
    3rd – 4.11
    4th – 4.33
    5th – 4.33
    6th – 3.39
    7th – 3.78
    8th – 4.89
    9th – 3.66
    Extra – 3.41

    Sure looks like the 8th was our Achilles heel.

    Just to clarify something that has been expressed at times by some posters. The Cardinals were 7th best in save percentage (70%) and tied for 7th best in blown saves (18). The ML averages were 66% and 21, respectively. From the 48th game through the end of the season, the ERA in the 8th inning was 3.68. There were 5 games in the first 47 that we allowed 4 or more runs in the 8th inning. Most of the problem was Socolovich, Broxton, Cecil, Bowman and Rosenthal.

    #35829

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Jager, there may be more to it than Cincy’s fast start this year. In 2016, they went 9-10 vs. the Cardinals. So over the last couple of years at least, the two teams have been dead even in head to head action.

    During that same time, overall, the Reds finished in last place both years with identical 68-94 records.

    #35831
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Sooner, just because I don’t consider Matheny to have any good qualities as a manager doesn’t mean I don’t listen other perspectives. What I have a problem with is when posters ignore his flaws and try to make excuses. I’ve never bashed you or other posters who are neutral so that was a blatant lie. Next time you want to you make a “hit piece” on me just get my personal contact so we can discuss this off the boards.

    Thanks.

    #35859

    SoonerinNC
    Participant

    I’m not much for the mea culpa stuff. Mo said that they need to improve from top to bottom. Little is gained by throwing your subordinates under the bus publicly. That often leads to serious problems. Criticism by management is best handled inside the organization.

    I think we as fans get emotional about specific incedents and tend to apply those to the total picture. For example; We lead off with a double and the next 3 batters strike out. I start complaining that we must strike out the most and take more fat pitches and swing at more bad pitches than anyone in baseball. Yet when I look at the numbers we struck out the 14th most times in the majors. Not good but far from the worst in baseball. Other times I complain that we never execute the sacrifice as well as everyone else. Yet we were 7th in baseball in the number of sacrifices in 2017.

    You can go to the Major League website and sort every stat. The Cardinals generally range from 12th to 18th on offense. Not a playoff caliber offense. Our top rankings are in walks (5th), OBP (8th) sacrifices (7th), sacrifice flys (8th). The worst stat is that we were 6th worst in hitting into double plays. We scored 3 runs or less in 66 games but that was offset by double digit outings which made our overall offensive numbers look better than they were. Unfortunately that does not compute to a strong season.

    We were better in the pitching department. We were 3rd in groundball outs, 11th in holds, 11th in WHIP, 5th in the percentage of saves to opportunities, 2nd best in preventing stolen bases, tied for 4th in causing grounding into double plays, 7th in walks allowed and 10th in OBP and OPS allowed. Still not up to our usual standards but not anywhere near a disaster.

    Defensive is hard to measure but in spite of a generally negative feeling about the defense we were average (15th) in errors committed and 10th in cumulative WAR. Dodgers were best at +5.4 and the Mets worst at -5.4. We were at 1.7 vs -1.3 in 2016. Fowler (-1.6) and Jose Martinez (-1.1) really hurt our numbers. But it appears that we did improve our defense.

    We were helped a good bit from our minor leagues with DeJong, Pham, Bader, Weaver, Brebbia and Tuivailala perfroming well after being called up from Memphis. (Among Cardinal pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched Brebbia and Tuivailala were 1-2 in E.R.A.)

    I posted data earlier that showed that we had solid to good performances from home grown players and very little from players acquired as free agents and players acquired in trades. So part of our strategy is working; the development internally. But we bombed out on the rest of it in 17.

    If we continue the same way in 2018 I believe we will have a similar result. Yet a few key moves in the offseason could make a big difference. We are not that far off and have a good group of young players coming along.

    #35868

    bccran
    Participant

    Excelllent post, Sooner, with some good info. Thanks for bringing it forward. Sure beats the heck out of negativism that adds nothing.

    #35874

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Please stop the griping about others’ posts. You like Sooner’s post. Good, but why can’t you leave it at that? Otherwise, the people you are complaining about will feel the need to respond and the name-calling will begin all over again.

    It is a new day, but I have to keep repeating. Keep the talk on baseball.

    #35875
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    This topic has died.

    #35883

    bccran
    Participant

    I simply like Sooner’s positive, data laden posts and wanted to thank him and compliment him.
    Posts like his are very informational and helpful. Okay with you, Brian? I know when I post something that has researched data and am thanked and complimented for it, it’s appreciated.

    #35885

    Onyxgem
    Participant

    Yeah and then you added your little “Sure beats the heck out of negativism that adds nothing.” comment that really did nothing for your post at all but take shots at others

    #35896

    thejager
    Participant

    This topic is about Mos view of the offseason…i actually had to look back up to see that…

    I agree Sooner…and to be honest that is kind of how the team “felt” this year…not great at anything but definitely not as bad as many people think or want to think…

    one thing i like to do is look at the month to month stats…i posted it a while back in another thread…but looking at the defense we got a lot better after the first initial months poor play…in the second half we were VERY good…at least as it relates to some of the defensive metrics…maybe too much on errors getting better…but then again they tend to be what everyone throws their hands up in the air about when needing to point out flaws….

    the team got better as the year went on…in almost every aspect…unfortunately we started so bad and our biggest push only amounted to getting us tied for 1st when you’d hope your big run pushes you up a few games

    i hate the ideas of a team “needing” stars…but i think that really is what we are missing…stars who are stars for unique abilities on the field

    a guy like Simmons could be a difference maker for the defense just like Yadi is behind the plate…
    Stanton is a difference maker not just in his HR power but in how the fear of him gets others guys around him better pitches.. to me if Carp had Stanton behind him from day one of this season…he would have been REALLY good even with his shoulder woes…Carp already has one of the best eyes in baseball…give him the added ability to know they arent going to pitch around you to the AB and he gets more pitches in the zone, and he has plenty of power and ability to take advantage of those opportunities…

    -1 REALLY scary bat…or 2 pretty scary bats
    -backend veteran help
    -an impact pitcher to replace Lynn
    -trading a lot to even up the minor league depth…we can do trades of minor leaguers too not just using them for fixing the MLB team…dealing with the glut at a few positions and evening it out is a real concern IMO..maybe trade young OF depth for a nice 1b prospect…or trade a few young SPs for a 3bman prospect…whether farther off or closer….

    it is a lot for any GM to take on…but we tried fixing everything internally and it really hasnt worked out in producing “stars”…it produces really good solid MLB players…and those are wonderful…i mean we basically fielded our AAA team for a chunk of the year and they still were only a couple games out of the playoffs…..that means the lower levels are doing their jobs…but the byproduct of our success is not having access to superstar young talent because of our drafting limitations…add is we limit our international spending for the big gamble players like Robert and others…so we are left with what we make…so…we need to go out and suck it up and pay for a couple of stars….whether using our very useful and valuable MLB ready depth or with cold hard cash…either way…we have to pay

    you want to regain the confidence of your fan base…be drastic
    -trade for Stanton and Gordon (including Wong)…this is basically a FA like deal where money is more important than the players lost really
    -trade for Longoria and Archer…costly in terms of prospects…
    -do these and then you can save alittle money on looking at bullpen help as no one coudl fault them for not being aggressive…and there woudl be plenty to help out…mayeb you even add Ziegler into the Stanton deal and also sign Nicasio

    -Stanton brings in ESPN coverage and statcast HR lovers…we lose he still would put butts in seats and challenge for HR crowns ala McGwire..
    -Gordon brings in a legit leadoff guy with elite SB talent (led the league) which StL fans would love to see as the 80’s fans are the big money watchers now right?
    -Longoria adds dependable defense and solid bat with veteran status..he may not be Rolen but he will not make us worry about defense
    -Archer is cost controlled Ace with youth and exuberance on his side…he is what we HOPE we get our young SPs to turn into…

    it is drastic and aggressive and expensive…but it is an offseason plan that doesnt look at just fulfilling the desire of the team makeup but also fulfills the desires of the fans and the things that they like and want

    It is a pipe dream undoubtedly but what is really crazy is that it is actually do-able without mortgaging our future…
    -Stanton and Gordon and Ziegler is all about salary dump…so whoever throws the best prospect and asks to eat the least amount of money will win…Flaherty + Wong + Grichuk + Gomber + maybe Tuivalala does tha get it done?
    -Archer and Longoria it gets scary….but doesnt leave us bare…Kelly + Reyes might do it by themselves… but i’d try for Kelly OR Reyes…adding other good youngsters like Alcantara, Hudson, Hicks, Garcia, Carp, Gyorko Piscotty…etc etc…to make it work…would Kelly + Hudson + Perez + Gyorko (we eat a little money), + Diaz + Sierra + Woodford be enough?

    we may have to say goodbye to some guys we like…Kelly, Flaherty, Carpenter, Pham, Grichuk, Piscotty, Gyorko, maybe even Reyes or Weaver anybody other than CMart, Waino, and Yadi…maybe DeJong are all fair game…

    a team of:
    -CMart, Archer, Wacha, Weaver, Waino (Reyes)
    -Nicasio, Ziegler, Cecil, Bowman, Brebbia, Lyons, Alcantara
    -Gordon (speed SB on base and contact), Pham (speed SB contact power), Carp (very good eye), Stanton (protects Carp), Longoria (protects Stanton), Fowler, Yadi, DeJong…
    -Hanigan (etc.), GGarcia, JMart, Piscotty, Bader (Mejia is at AAA if we need better SS depth)

    is dynamic and is veteran driven in the lineup but youthful in the rotation…young bench and a mix in the pen…

    and there would still be young pitchers close, and some depth for the pen, and some roel players at AAA along with a few difference makers like ONeill and AdGarcia…Knizner and Jeremy pick up the mantle as future catcher

    pipe dreams of course…i know…

    but my point is that as an offseason plan…to make a real change you need to make REAL changes…and doing those is possible with the assets we have…and we can not only solve the team concerns but also appearance concerns AND fan desires both locally and nationally..

    forgetting to address what the fans want (not just the Cardinals fans mind you) cant be forgotten

    #35898

    Onyxgem
    Participant

    I like it Jager, but one move I would make is trade Carp while he has Value and sign Hosmer from KC.

    #35899

    bccran
    Participant

    Tough business decision. Fowler and Pham are under control for multiple years, Piscotty may rebound, Grichuk has a teasingly high ceiling, and Bader and O’Neill were ranked in the top 2% of all minor league outfielders.

    #35900

    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Link on the top 2%?

    #35901

    bccran
    Participant

    Listed on MLB.com in the Top 100
    prospects. Going through the list,
    they’re the 24th and 25th outfielders listed. 30 major league organizations times 7 teams times 5 outfielders per team equals 1,050 outfielders. 25 divided by 1,050 equals .0238.

    #35909

    forsch31
    Participant

    Do all the organizations have 7 teams or do all the teams have 5 OFs? That would affect your bottom line.

    #35910

    forsch31
    Participant

    bccran

    Participant

    I simply like Sooner’s positive, data laden posts and wanted to thank him and compliment him.
    Posts like his are very informational and helpful.

    So my positive, data laden post was not very informational and helpful?

    #35911

    bccran
    Participant

    Pretty standard. Only includes U.S. based rookie leagues on up.

    #35913

    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Some only have 6 US teams but I’m more than satisfied with bccran’s answer and logic.

    #35918

    bccran
    Participant

    30 organizations x 6 teams =
    180 teams x 4 outfielders =
    720 outfielders.

    Top 25 outfielders divided by 720 total outfielders = .0347.

    If all organizations had only 6 teams and only 4 outfielders per team, O’Neill and Bader would still represent the top 3.5%
    of all outfielders in the minors via this type of calculation.

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