Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › Marco Gonzales traded
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July 22, 2017 at 11:54 am #28316
Would I have done the trade? Absolutely. Please more.
I just think it is shortsighted to call us the winner outright. I like that one gm looked outside the box a bit and called us for middle relievers because we have some under control for a few years that are decent to good.
I like it even more that we not only called back but we made a deal with our excess. I mean … What a concept right? Deal from strength to fill a weakness.
We got the higher ceiling player… But stuff happens. It is another lottery ticket. And a good one.
catch is… You cant do just one trade like this … More prospects mitigates risk. So I dont think we are done.
You might lose an individual trade. You win in this case by getting enough pieces to overwhelm the odds of failure. Say O’Neill has a 25% shot of being an all star and 50% odds of playing five years (not a huge stretch in either case)… Get four players like him and your team looks pretty good most likely at some point.
These are trades you have to make in our position. Every time. But sometimes you lose those trades anyway.
July 22, 2017 at 12:20 pm #28318Yeah – there’s no guarantee either one of them ever does anything. Marco might go on and have a great career. But this is a trade, from the Cardinals perspective, I would do every single time. From the Mariners perspective, well, the reaction in Seattle isn’t so good right now.
July 22, 2017 at 12:35 pm #28319Seattle is like us… In no man’s land. They’re making a play for the wild card. They have decent odds too.
Better odds than we have at the division probably.
O’Neill has no place there long term. Gonzales can pitch now and spot start as necessary … For several years. It is a lot better value for them than getting a guy who walks at year end.
Nobody on our board or who follows our guys doubts gonzales will get people out in short bursts. For good reason. He’s got the stuff and has been ready for years outside of the injury.
Dealing for a veteran reliever with his production level might have cost twice as much.
That is why the guy in seattle was smart. That is also why our gm should be selling hardcore if he gets solid offers like this. Long term we most likely win big.
The trade market is just high right now.
July 22, 2017 at 1:11 pm #28330Brian, as monitor is there any way you can bring the theaded discussion that goes off.the mobile screen back to where we can read it?
July 22, 2017 at 1:18 pm #28331CC, if you rotate your phone to landscape, you’ll be able to see replies, at least as a patch until we get an update.
July 24, 2017 at 10:24 am #28470PadsFSParticipantBrianpnoonan
The more I read the more I agree with this.He needs some development yet but he probably slots in behind reyes and kelly prospect wise… Which is impressive.
MLB Pipeline put O’Neill at #4 behind Reyes, Kelly, and Weaver, ahead of Perez and Flaherty.
July 24, 2017 at 10:27 am #28471PadsFSParticipantHow about that 10.8% BB-rate in AA and 11.1% in AAA this year?
July 24, 2017 at 10:34 am #28474Good stuff thx 🙂
July 24, 2017 at 10:43 am #28479I think it is a good move. I believe at best Gonzales would be a situational lefty. He often is real good the first time through the lineup and then blotto. We probably have other good prospects to fill the sit lefty role.
On the other hand as much as we pick at the numbers we got a guy that was #2 in the Seattle system and top 50 (actually mid 30’s) in 3 of 4 BA pundits. A guy with the power we have sadly missed in the middle of the lineup. I know we, me probably more than others quibble with BA’s rankings but we have to remember those rankings are due to a lot of scout input.
So we part with a possible back end of the rotation lefty or a situation lefty for a legitimate power hitter and a decent outfielder with plus arm. Also only 22 years old at AAA.
July 24, 2017 at 11:00 am #28484I am keeping an open mind, but in the area of home runs, O’Neill’s key differentiator, he is not much different from two guys already in Memphis this season.
In 2017, Harrison Bader has same # of HRs, 19, as Tyler O'Neill, but in 28 fewer PAs. Patrick Wisdom has 2 more, 21, also in 36 fewer PAs.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 21, 2017
July 24, 2017 at 11:14 am #28486Bader is roughly a year older. Wisdom is 25.
Seems like what youre saying is “these guys are good too”. Which im good with… Lol… A year is a lot in prospect rankings but the guys we had are pretty darn solid.
Imo…if bader plays center he is probably every bit as good of a prospect simply due to positional differences even if his d is slighly below average. Just gets back to what a few of us have said before about our guys being underrated.
July 24, 2017 at 11:44 am #28491While those guys have done well this year, O’Neill also had 24 homers last year in AA and 32 the year before. He’s got pretty legit power, I think.
July 24, 2017 at 5:26 pm #28534bccranParticipantBritish Isles are faring well with Kelly, Weaver, and O’Neill.
May 24, 2022 at 2:35 pm #186117Looking back……who won this trade?
May 24, 2022 at 4:28 pm #186120It would have been really easy to call this a win for us before O’Neill’s struggles this year. I have confidence that Tyler comes back from IL ready to go, so I think it’s hard to say we lost this trade.
May 24, 2022 at 5:06 pm #186121Gonzales turned into a reliable innings eating starter with a winning record year after year for Seattle. That is more valuable that most outfielers these days.
May 24, 2022 at 8:02 pm #186142Too early to tell. O’Neill was our best player last year and I expected him to tear it up this year. With that combination of power and speed, plus a solid defender, there is no reason he won’t put up some impressive numbers once he is healthy and gets in a groove.
The deal we really lost and may look back on as a huge deficit was giving up Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna. That one could become Carlton-esque in another 5 years or so.
May 24, 2022 at 8:34 pm #186155Prior to 2021, Seattle had won the trade.
Two months ago, the Cards had won the trade, because a star is more valuable by far than a merely solid starting pitcher.
And now, it’s To Be Determined.With better hitting coaches, I truly believe Tyler wouldn’t have scuffled so badly prior to 2021, or struggled terribly this season. As evidence, during the 2018 campaign, Tyler was one of the Cardinals who immediately blossomed as soon as John Mabry was replaced midseason as Redbird batting coach by the Two Old Guys.
2018, with Mabry, 92 OPS+
2018, w/Old Guys, 130 OPS+———————————
For whatever it’s worth, Marcell Ozuna and Kolten Wong also experienced similar, immediate transformations back in 2018.
Ozuna/Mabry: 92 OPS+
Ozuna/Oldsters: 133 OPS+Kolten/Mabry: 91 OPS+
Kolten/Two Old Guys Fired Soon Thereafter Because They Don’t Speak Fluent “Metrics”: 127 OPS+May 25, 2022 at 8:11 am #186197During a broadcast last month Jimmy said O’Neill sought council from Mark McGwire during the off season last year. He was ready in spring training last year. Maybe he should give him a ring.
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