Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

This topic contains 154 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by bicyclemike bicyclemike 6 hours, 23 minutes ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 126 through 150 (of 155 total)
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  • #43561

    PadsFS
    Participant

    They are still almost $30M away from the luxury tax.

    #43566

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Like I said, the tax is not an issue – yet. Bryant will close that gap almost single-handedly in a few years, even if they don’t bid for Harper or Machado next fall.

    #43567

    gscottar
    Participant

    The Cubs are actually only $17M from the luxury tax so they still have a little more money to play with at the deadline but not much.

    Yes these big contracts might bite them eventually but they are pretty golden for the next four years so unless we decide to try to compete with them we can just sit back and play for the wild card the next four years. That doesn’t sound like fun to me. And if signing Darvish nets them another World Series win they aren’t going to care how his contract ends up. It will have been worth it. Their ownership and front office are constantly pushing the envelope and going for it, which is what most fans crave.

    For anyone to suggest our rotation is better than theirs is just naieve. It isn’t close. Maybe it will be in a couple of years but we are depending on unproven talent and they are depending on proven talent.

    Friends, as I have stated before, I am most appreciative of what our ownership and front office has given us over the years. We are fortunate to be fans of one of the greatest and most iconic sports franchises of all time (and I mean that sincerely), but at some point we have to stop living off the past and start living in the present. 2004, 2006, 2011, and even 2013 are over. We have been getting kicked around by Chicago the last three seasons and it isn’t going to stop anytime soon until we decide we have had enough.

    • This reply was modified 6 days, 4 hours ago by  gscottar.
    #43573

    gscottar
    Participant
    #43580

    mspaid
    Participant

    What empty seats? 3.4 million. They are under NO pressure to do anything. Junior is smiling all the way. They conceded the division before before the off-season started. But they could be in the wild card until late September. A few seats would be lost for a few home games if they are eliminated early but they would lose considerably less than a twenty million dollar player. Thus there off-season Modus Operandi. Here comes spring training, my favorite time of the year.

    #43584

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Nate, did you watch the games in September? I think not or you would have seen all the empty seats. Maybe tickets were sold, but a lot of the people did not come to the park. Therefore, they did not buy overpriced food and drink.

    What follows I had first posted on the Staff Changes thread back in October.

    The exact counts of home sellouts from the last four years are 52, 37, 19, 14, despite what appeared to be heavier ticket discounting. The announced total was still high, 3.4 MM, but there looks to be considerable softness behind it.

    TV ratings were also down, another item that has a direct financial impact.

    #43586

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Very interesting Darvish and Arrieta article from Heyman. Negotiations, salary cap, Cards even mentioned. Definitely worth reading.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/

    #43587

    858booyah
    Participant

    Haha!

    Theo can’t be trusted! All he’s doing is driving up the price in case anyone in the Central has interest. He knows Washington won’t pay Jake Arrieta that money with Scherzer and Strasburg on the books. He wants Milwaukee to buckle and offer him 6 years and handcuff themselves. If Milwaukee does this they’re idiots. They should Sign Lynn or Cobb!

    #43588

    858booyah
    Participant

    And you can tell the product on the field has had an effect. They were offering $5-10 deals in July and August and people weren’t buying it and you already see they’ve remodeled an eyesore for TV in the RF upper deck by making it a patio for Standing room people to bum off of. This team is image concerned more than any other franchise in MLB.

    Unless the private all inclusive area’s are making up for the lost asses in the seats. They’ve felt a slight pinch in revenue. Maybe not enough to take it seriously but they know whats going on.

    #43600

    mspaid
    Participant

    Brian:

    You’re right of course but will a slight drop in revenue due to selling less beer and hotdogs or maybe a hat pressure Junior into a big signing for years and money? Not a chance. He’s making money hand over fist as they say and not winning means nothing to him as long as the books look good. I guess if you are right and they are feeling the “pinch” then they’d be taking 2018 seriously and acquiring talent, Ozuna notwithstanding. I’m waiting for the big deals to come along to address this decline in “interest” that you and others are suggesting. I’m not holding my breath are you?

    #43602

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    No, I am not holding my breath – just trying to expand your horizons a bit. I do not think the business model is as bulletproof as you suggest. There are a lot of reasons for them to hope the 2018 team gets off to a good start.

    #43603

    PadsFS
    Participant

    gscottar

    The Cubs are actually only $17M from the luxury tax so they still have a little more money to play with at the deadline but not much.

    The Cubs have an odd contract structure going for both Lester and Heyward. They gave them both massive signing bonuses ($30M for Lester and $20M for Heyward) which technically count against the salary cap. For MLB purposes, Lester’s salary is 27.5M and Heyward is $28.2M, when in reality, they are getting $22.5M and $21.5M respectively. In 2019, Heyward’s will drop to the actual salary and, in 2020, Lester’s will drop.

    Lester: $30M signing bonus ($15M due 4/15/15, $2.5M due 12/31/18, $2.5M due 12/31/19, $10M due 9/15/20)

    Heyward: $20M signing bonus (paid in four $5M installments, each April 1, 2024-27)

    I have them at $170.5M in actual salary for 2018. WIth the adjusted Heyward/Lester contracts, they are showing at $184.4M. The luxury tax is as follows:

    2018 $197,000,000
    2019 $206,000,000
    2020 $208,000,000
    2021 $210,000,000

    #43605

    mudville
    Participant

    I think the lack of a star player has almost as much to do with a decline in interest by fans as difficulty winning. With the kind of commitment that Pham has made, he could be our next star player. Ozuna could also be a star player. If Fowler does what many expect him to do this year, we could have one of the best outfields in the NL.

    This team has already improved nine games by being done with Peralta, Broxton, Oh, and Rosenthal. If Cecil returns to form, and if Wainwright can come back, we’re even more improved. We have questions that are almost entirely based upon youth. I’m anxious to see what the kids can do.

    Lester is 34 years old and showing his age. The Cubs have no Plan B if there is an injury to Darvish or another one of their starters. And Tyler Chatwood? The Cubs are giving him $38M.

    This will be one of the most fascinating ST’s in memory, IMO.

    • This reply was modified 5 days, 7 hours ago by  mudville.
    #43606

    Onyxgem
    Participant

    Um the team isn’t improved without Rosenthal mudville, the pen is worse without him

    #43608

    mudville
    Participant

    I like Rosenthal. I’ve said before that I wish we could bring him back on a fair contract after he gets healthy. Last year he had elbow problems and wasn’t the pitcher he had been. There are potential answers to our bullpen questions. One of them is Dominic Leone, another is Alex Reyes. There are other possibilities.
    I’m looking forward to this year’s ST.

    #43610

    gscottar
    Participant

    You might be right Pads, I’m not sure. All I know is that Cot’s had the Cubs payroll at $159M before the Darvish deal so it should be at $180M now, with the luxury tax threshold at $197M. I don’t know if Cot’s had factored in the signing bonuses or not.

    #43611

    gscottar
    Participant

    Mud, you seem to be in the wishful thinking business. Are you saying that we are nine games better than last year? That would make us a 92 win team. Hmmm, I just cant see that nor can any of the statistical analysis outlets who project such things.

    The Cubs have four strong starters. They can afford to lose one of them to injury for awhile and be ok. Now if they lose two things could get a bit dicey but they seem to be immune to major injuries anyway.

    Meanwhile, our rotation has one strong starter and four question marks. Hey, I want us to be better than the Cubs more than anyone but I choose to live in reality.

    #43622

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    And as if on cue, the Cardinals have announced a sale. $5 tickets to every Monday-Thursday game all season, except Opening Day. And the buyer gets $5 in concessions included.

    I have never seen this in the past – let alone for all midweek games and prior to the season even opening.

    Those who do not think the team is worried about ticket sales are simply not paying attention.

    Details here:

    https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/cardinals-announce-special-5-ticket-flash-sale/c-266309756

    #43631

    mudville
    Participant

    I’d rather think of it as undying optimism.

    We lost a lot of games last year because of players who didn’t want to play, or were injured, or burnt out. I don’t see that happening this year. Now its just a matter of ‘Can the kids deliver?’ We’ll be finding that out soon.

    #43656
    grayssportsalmanac
    grayssportsalmanac
    Participant

    “Cubs develop hitters and buy pitchers. Cards develop pitchers and acquire a few hitters, but not often enough”

    ***that’s the idea but you are also right that it doesnt happen often enough…the gonzales/oneill trade was one i liked…looked even to maybe tipping us on paper…but really we just got rid of an sp who had ran out of rope and room for a top 100 prospect/possible 5th outfielder with upside, who was ready to go , hopefully we can see more of it in the future**

    #43714

    Cardinals27
    Participant

    Whatever you do Mo, please don’t sign Arrieta, unless on a 1 year deal. I only see that as a 1% chance of happening. Or after the 1 year throw a QO to him.

    #43719
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Saw somewhere Arietta turned down a 6 year $126MM offer. He isn’t signing a 1 year deal unless the AAV is ridiculously high.

    #43721

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    If he turned that down, he may be really sorry. The sixth year will be his age 37 season.

    #43732
    bicyclemike
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Wow, if he turned down a six-year deal with an AAV of $21M, his agent has lost it. A pitcher over 30 thinking he could (or should) get more than that?

    Has the baseball world lost it for good? There was some grumbling about players going on strike during Spring Training because some guys are not getting the big deals, yet when an offer is presented, assuming this offer was indeed given to Arrieta, he turns it down.

    This is where you need one of those icons from the old forum that has the guys banging his head.

    #43733

    Cardinals27
    Participant

    It seems funny that 2 years ago David Price signs a 7 year, 217 million dollar deal. Are Darvish and Arrieta only 2/3 as good? No, but I think spending needs to be curtailed, I just wonder how long before some owner breaks from ranks and goes over slot, as it were.

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