Hosmer/Moustakas free agents thread

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  • #42464
    nbr1hawkeye
    Participant

    Free

    I think if Eric Hosmer is signed, Matt Carpenter will be traded… either as a part of a larger deal, or for future trade depth.

    #42478
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Why do you think that, Hawkeye? Just a gut feel, or do you have some other insight as to why?

    To me, that would just be shuffling deck chairs, albeit some major chairs. Can’t see how it would make the team appreciably better. As a reminder, pitchers and catchers report in 21 days.

    #42479
    NJ315
    Participant

    Because you trade a 32 yr old with some durability issues for a 28 yr old. Hosmer may not be better than Carp at 28 but he is at least as good as Carp at 32 and probably better for the next at least 4 yrs.

    #42480
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    You also get another fowler contract and no upgrade unless carp gives you something in trade.

    #42491
    nbr1hawkeye
    Participant

    Free

    Brian…

    I have no special insight. It is admittedly a gut feeling. But that gut feeling is based on some real factors. NJ315 summed it up pretty well for me. As for Brian Noonan’s comment, I believe Matt has trade value. I can image several teams having interest in Matt. KC would be in the market for a 1B. CO and maybe even the Yankee’s could have some interest in a veteran !B with 2 years of control.

    #42494
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    The last thing we need is another albatross. Those inflated contracts will nearly always bite you in the end.

    No team is willing to pay for another’s poor decision.

    #42495
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    OK, thanks. I do not doubt that Carpenter has trade value. That is not my concern. I just question whether the difference achieved by churning Carpenter out and Hosmer in would be worth enough to make it feasible. I think it would be far more likely that the Cards would keep both and Gyorko would become a sub (or maybe they go to their original plan and make Carpenter the supersub).

    P.S. One challenge in my scenario is that the bench would get very tight. Adding a free agent with no departures might push Garcia to become #5 outfielder and keep Bader/O’Neill in Memphis.

    #42507
    NJ315
    Participant

    You don’t even know what the contract is and is already an albatross? Long-term contracts are risky period.

    #42508
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    Yes. I do.

    Past performance and future returns and all that.

    Fowler career average WAR : 2.2
    Hosmer : 2.0

    You’re buying another career year and an average player.

    #42511
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    I’ll short version it for you :

    If their WAR isnt on average in the 3.3-4 range or higher they are never worth a long term contract.

    Ever.

    And even then it takes some convincing.

    There are players left that are doable. Darvish for one. Depends on the price.

    Hosmer isn’t in the same time zone of being a good value.

    #42513
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    Here’s some easy obvious math to illustrate :

    Fowler + hosmer = 17+18 (estimating) = 35 = 4 WAR (4 extra wins over a replacement player per year)

    Bader/O’Neill + carpenter does that for 25 milion less

    Machado (Orioles) = 35 million, maybe 40 = 5 WAR and you can put voit at 1b and conservatively get 1.5-2 and bader/O’Neill in the outfield and get the same.

    Point with this? Pay for superstars, not schmucks.

    #42516
    NJ315
    Participant

    You know everything. So I bow out to your superior knowledge and out of this conversation. Thanks for the short version.

    #42518
    PadsFS
    Participant

    I love that Bader and O’Neill are magically going to equal what Fowler does. Didn’t we get into that mess by counting on Grichuk and Piscotty? Bader and O’Neill are more or less Grichuk’s equals too.

    Plus Fowler and Hosmer are always evaluated by their career WAR, while some guys like Ozuna get a pass or Pham who didn’t even play in the majors 5 years ago, despite being older than Hosmer.

    #42523
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Good point Pads. There seems to be a lot of cherry picking going on in regards to careers and specific seasons.

    #42529
    PadsFS
    Participant

    I love having the redundancies that exist with Fowler on the roster. We were able to land the pieces that trading Grichuk and Piscotty brought because they were getting pushed from below, and from above. If Bader or O’Neill take off, then we will have other redundancies next year to use in trades.

    Leone, Greene, Munoz, and Schrock fill holes in the system too. With trades like these, we can continue drafting the best player available rather than trying to fill holes (like the Cubs recent draft strategies)

    #42542
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    Cherry picking?

    An average big league starter (give or take) gives 2 WAR.

    Im saying between two top 100 players we can get an average guy.

    Sure it might not happen but I am hardly coming close to asking for the moon here. Seems reasonable at worst.

    #42561
    nbr1hawkeye
    Participant

    Free

    Brian.,.
    Signing Hosmer and trading Carpenter may not upgrade the offense for 2018, but I don’t think it would be a downgrade either. The difference is in the $ and years (A few more dollars in 2018 and 2019, and a few extra years committed to 1B (beyond 2019).

    You pointed out (perhaps) the best reason to trade Carp. If he isn’t the 1B, then he creates a roster problem.

    It seems to me, the real question is: Do they want to commit extra dollars over the next several years to first base in return for what we would get from Carpenter in a trade.

    #42562
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I am guessing not, but we will see.

    #42563
    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Free

    Plus Fowler and Hosmer are always evaluated by their career WAR, while some guys like Ozuna get a pass or Pham who didn’t even play in the majors 5 years ago, despite being older than Hosmer.

    Ok, Let’s see. According to Baseball Reference,
    – Dexter Fowler’s career WAR is 19.7 in 10 years. So less than 2 WAR per year.
    – Eric Hosmer’s career WAR is 14.1 in 7 seasons. Just over 2 WAR per year.
    – Marcell Ozuna’s career WAR is 13.7 in 5 seasons, roughly 2.75 per year.
    – Tommy Pham’s career WAR is 7.7 in 4 seasons, almost all accumulated this past season.

    Why do you think Marcell Ozuna is getting a pass when his average WAR is three-quarters of a WAR better than the others? Now, when you say Dexter Fowler is worth 2 WAR per year +/- 1 WAR, and Marcell Ozuna is worth 2.75 WAR per year, +/- 1 WAR, well, you can see there is a chance that they are equivalent players. But it would seem Ozuna is better (especially after winning a Gold Glove on defense, which let’s face it, Fowler will never win) based on the numbers generated throughout their respective careers so far.

    #42564
    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Free

    With trades like these, we can continue drafting the best player available rather than trying to fill holes (like the Cubs recent draft strategies)

    Ahh…but see, that’s the problem. The Cardinals don’t draft the best player available. In 2016, they took a guy with a third round grade in the first round to save money for their bonus pool allocation. In 2017, they took a guy with a 5th round grade in the 3rd round to save money for their bonus pool allocation.

    If you read about the draft starting in December all the way through the draft, you will see there are stratifications of talent. Maybe the top 1-5 or 1-15 are all roughly equivalent. The next tier may go down to the 15 range, or down to the 20’s. Then you have a third tier that goes down to the 30’s or 40’s, and then it is a total crapshoot (as if it wasn’t already).

    At the top end of the draft, you should be uncompromising in going after the best player available. And given there are equivalencies in strata’s, there is no harm in drafting for organizational holes within those strata, in fact it might be preferable. It is definitely preferable than drafting guys that clearly aren’t in those stratifications that high in the draft to save money for later picks.

    #42566
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Talking about drafting the best players without also looking at money yields an incomplete picture. All organizations have to manage to a total budget for the draft and we have no idea what bonus demands players have established. That means no one can always take the supposed best player available – even if every one of the 30 organizations had the same draft board (which of course they do not). Since we cannot see their boards, we have no way of knowing who anyone graded best at any time. Maybe the Cards see the market differently than the BA’s of the world.

    In 2016, you leave out the fact that they already had Perez. With very next pick after Carlson at #33, they went overslot on Hudson at #34 and went overslot on three of the next four picks as well (using much of the Carlson savings). If Carlson comes out well (or Hudson or the others), it would seem to validate that the Cards knew what they were doing. Maybe they passed on one “best player at the time” in Carlson so they could get four more right afterward, ones with higher bonus demands than they would have had cap money to cover.

    I do not possess a crystal ball to know yet how the players from that draft will come out, nor do I profess to know more about drafting players than the Cardinals organization. Like many, I do enjoy trying to interpret what they were doing, but for me, “Mike Trout” kinds of second-guessing are only so interesting.

    In 2017, most of the draftees who received overslot money were high schoolers – Jackson, Rivera, Fuller and Williams. None of them got of out of the gates quickly, but it is incredibly early.

    Late in the draft, every organization does some positional drafting to fill out their short-season rosters. Business as usual.

    #42575
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Cardinals2016

    Why do you think Marcell Ozuna is getting a pass when his average WAR is three-quarters of a WAR better than the others? Now, when you say Dexter Fowler is worth 2 WAR per year +/- 1 WAR, and Marcell Ozuna is worth 2.75 WAR per year, +/- 1 WAR, well, you can see there is a chance that they are equivalent players. But it would seem Ozuna is better (especially after winning a Gold Glove on defense, which let’s face it, Fowler will never win) based on the numbers generated throughout their respective careers so far.

    My point is that using career numbers arbitrarily punishes Fowler and Hosmer. In my opinion, using Hosmer’s and Fowler’s numbers from 6-10 years ago is baseless. Tommy Pham was in AA when Hosmer made his rookie debut in 2011 while being 2 years younger.

    I can only use fangraphs, but the career WAR numbers are similar anyway, but let’s look at the last three years:

    – Dexter Fowler’s fWAR is 10.5 in 3 seasons, or 3.5 WAR per year.
    – Eric Hosmer’s fWAR is 7.5 in 3 seasons, or 2.5 WAR per year.
    – Marcell Ozuna’s fWAR is 8.5 in 3 seasons, or 2.83 WAR per year.
    – Tommy Pham’s fWAR is 7.6 in 3 seasons, or 2.53 WAR per year.

    The point is all four have been successful over the last couple years, but everyone seems to focus on the career numbers for Fowler and Hosmer specifically, when those numbers have long since became irrelevant.

    #42581
    bccran
    Participant

    Hosmer will require an expensive, long term contract. Cardinals are trying to get away from that. Same with Moustakas.

    #42582
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    … Career WAR average per year shows long term downside. It takes into account injuries, bad years and everyday effort.

    It punishes mediocrity.

    You can have up seasons and down seasons. I get that. But your WAR average is pretty much who you are.

    Yes you can remove things like september callups etc. Im good with that. But when a guy produces like an average player for the better part of a decade…

    Well, he is average. Mediocre. Whatever word you want to use.

    The ONLY argument pro hosmer that I see is that he is entering his prime years and should produce a bit more.

    Guess what? 3 WAR per year is still not worth 18 million per year or more for 5+ years.

    He isnt in the same time zone of being a good signing.

    #42584
    PadsFS
    Participant

    I’d like to know exactly what you want to do given the limited available talent that is high-level. The two most high-level players out there were either traded for and rejected by the player and actually gone through with – Ozuna. Donaldson and Machado don’t seem available.

    I think this team is right on the cusp and Hosmer or Moustakas may push us over the edge, coupled with the trade returns of the then redundant pieces. We’ve been eliminated in the last week and on the last day over the past two seasons. Let’s close that gap.

Viewing 25 posts - 126 through 150 (of 324 total)
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