Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › Hosmer/Moustakas free agents thread
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December 22, 2017 at 11:15 am #40362
I have never said garbage. Ever.
I HAVE said the money is better allocated elsewhere by WIDE margins.
He is mediocre.
We are not paying him to be mediocre.
And yeah… Ok. 3 WAR on fangraphs. Yay. If you are impressed you arent paying attention.
We are paying him more. 3 WAR in center is 2 on the corners.
3 WAR is worth ten million per year or so. You dont accumulate value until mich higher.
… And yes, I realize we never would sign anyone but superstars the way I do the math. That’s the point. Paying for mediocrity makes you mediocre.
December 22, 2017 at 11:18 am #40363Aren’t Dexter’s injury issues chronic in nature?
So, wouldn’t it seem reasonable to conclude they are going to bother him the next four years?
Offensively, he was about what we expected. Defensively, I don’t know how the Cardinals whiffed so badly, given they’ve had Statcast data for years and should have been able to see through the mirage that is Wrigley field.
The biggest reasons Fowler is bad for the Cardinals are that 1) They overpaid by 60% AAV and 100% in terms of contract value 2) He has a full NTC 3) Now we have a surplus of outfielders that I am sure the Cardinals want to see how they perform at the MLB level before trading them.
December 22, 2017 at 11:19 am #40364Let me put it as starkly amd bluntly as I can on the WAR math.
(Provided they are healthy) we would be better off signing trout, stanton, and kershaw for 60 million per year apiece and surrounding them with the memphis redbirds right now than we would screwing around with people like fowler.
The contract is a bad joke.
December 22, 2017 at 11:39 am #40366Another one — something like 70-80% of WAR value is accumulated by those above 4. Which means 70-80% of major league salary value is accumulated by … 50 or so players.
Which means you divide 70-80% of total baseball salaries into those 50 players to see how the math works. Higher WAR is obviously worth significantly more.
It is EXPONENTIAL. I understand people arent good at math or dont understand stuff like that but NO WAY is someone like fowler EVER worth even remotely pondering keeping much less trying to defend.
The value is in superstars or young low paid players (preferably both).
December 22, 2017 at 12:03 pm #40367(Provided they are healthy) we would be better off signing trout, stanton, and kershaw for 60 million per year apiece and surrounding them with the memphis redbirds right now
That team would be well under .500, and almost certainly in last place unless some other team used the same “logic.” How would last place make us any better than any other way? You talk about other people being bad at math, and yet you seem to have zero understanding of your own grandiose false statements.
I get that you are smarter than the entire Cardinals front office. You’ve clearly demonstrated that. But you need to be careful that you don’t significantly reduce your own WAR from the shoulder surgery that you are clearly going to need from patting yourself on the back so rapidly and so often. Recovery from shoulder surgery is notoriously arduous.
December 22, 2017 at 12:30 pm #403691 WAR is worth approximately 8mil per year.
Fowler was about 3 WAR in an injury laden year
Fowler’s salary is 16.5 last year
That would be 24 million value
Seems a bargain with his performance
Also his defense may not be great but if you think it wasn’t hampered by his foot unity then you are being bias.
December 22, 2017 at 2:06 pm #4037414NyquisTParticipantUsing that “foot injury” as an excuse is questionable unless you can measure his sensory status. Its MLB, players often play with some discomfort. To make that excuse for our CF-turned-LF’s ’17 performance is something his mother might blame it on.
December 22, 2017 at 2:11 pm #403751 war is worth exponentially more the better the player.
For fowler? Nope. Definitely not.
Fowler is worth 10 million per year if you are feeling extremely generous. And that’s if he gets above 3 WAR CONSISTENTLY.
1-3 war players are by definition replaceable and worth less.
December 22, 2017 at 2:13 pm #40376..and that memphis team plus those three players would be better than the team we have now. There’s a reason people were saying we could field two .500 teams last year.
December 22, 2017 at 2:16 pm #40377So, now some suspect Fowler was faking injury, which resulted in two stints on the DL list? Really?
June 25-July 6
July 25-August 7I ask again. What is the explanation for his team-leading OPS the final two months after coming off the DL the second time? Instead, I get full season data.
P.S. I did not mean to suggest anyone else used the word “garbage”. Anyone reading the thread knows that word was not cited by anyone but me. I was using it in the general term, as in “take out the garbage”, referring to those who either want him benched or traded (which any realist knows is not happening any time in the foreseeable future).
December 22, 2017 at 2:23 pm #4037814NyquisTParticipantTriple…. we have players at Memphis that can outperform what the Cards plan to run out there ’18. The AAA guys know what it feels like to win something. Flaherty probably won more awards than the entire Cards ’18 probable 25-man roster. Geez he was an all-star on two separate teams in the ’17 season. (Its MiLB but it shows a ton of probability for MLB success.)
All of the MLB all-stars went through a minor league system… they just didn’t walk into major-league stadiums and start performing. Sorry to state the obvious but some folks don’t follow our farm system and don’t realize the potential MLB talent that they possess… some are “just trade the prospects” followers. Some don’t know one prospect from the others. That amazes me.
December 22, 2017 at 2:24 pm #40379All you have to do to prove that WAR numbers arent all created equal is to try and put together a lineup with 27 1-WAR players.
Then put together one with nine 3-WAR players.
If you cant figure out the reasons I say WAR value is exponential and not linear, you got issues.
December 22, 2017 at 2:36 pm #4038014NyquisTParticipantC2016 commented: Aren’t Dexter’s injury issues chronic in nature?
So, wouldn’t it seem reasonable to conclude they are going to bother him the next four years?
Offensively, he was about what we expected. Defensively, I don’t know how the Cardinals whiffed so badly, given they’ve had Statcast data for years and should have been able to see through the mirage that is Wrigley field.
The biggest reasons Fowler is bad for the Cardinals are that 1) They overpaid by 60% AAV and 100% in terms of contract value 2) He has a full NTC 3) Now we have a surplus of outfielders that I am sure the Cardinals want to see how they perform at the MLB level before trading them.
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This is the stuff that worries me about 4 more years. Period.December 22, 2017 at 3:09 pm #40383Why in the world does every thread have to be hijacked to discuss the merits of the Dexter Fowler signing?
Yes, he was an overpay.
We get it!
Got it!
Really, we get it!But guess what, he isn’t a terrible player and he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon so let it go. We have bigger fish to fry.
I’m sure the Cubs aren’t happy about the Heyward deal but instead of obsessing about it they are making plans to acquire Darvish, Macahdo, and Davis so they can kick our *** once again.
December 22, 2017 at 3:13 pm #4038714NyquisTParticipantMLB.com is running this article:
Cardinals boast NL’s hardest-hitting OF duo, according to Statcast
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Notice if you will that the duo is Pham and Ozuna. Also Pham’s OAA= +6, Ozuna =+1 Fowler= -9. And who is making all the $$.December 22, 2017 at 3:50 pm #40396..because if there are bigger fish to fry than adjusting your payroll to get better players by removing BY FAR the worst negative value on your team then your priorities are wrong.
Edit : by negative value I mean we are paying him way more for longer than he is giving us. 2nd worst is yadi but at least yadi has mitigating reasons to keep him to an extent (training kelly and he is better than stats are really able to capture in some areas).
December 22, 2017 at 4:01 pm #4040014NyquisTParticipantRE: Bader and Flaherty
Flaherty, Bader named Cardinals' minor leaguers of the year https://t.co/nGQ6R316nY
— STL Cardinals News (@STLCardsNews) December 22, 2017
Brian Walton did his own story found on our HOME page.
December 22, 2017 at 4:04 pm #4040114NyquisT, thanks but there is a separate thread about Bader and Flaherty, started yesterday.
This thread is about Fowle… er… Hosmer and Moustakas… 😉
Seriously, we already have an “Outfield, who stays and who goes” thread that had significant earlier Fowler discussion. Those who want to go on further about him might consider taking the talk there. Or start a new thread on Fowler specifically.
January 1, 2018 at 10:30 pm #40991From Jon Morosi. (FWIW, I agree with him.)
Hard to imagine a scenario in which Mike Moustakas accepts a one-year deal, even a lucrative one, with intent of reentering market next winter. He’d face greater competition then, with Machado and Donaldson available as free agents.
January 2, 2018 at 12:22 pm #41028From Morosi:
Source: #STLCards remain involved in pursuit of Eric Hosmer, among other options to upgrade lineup. Cardinals also interested in third basemen, including Josh Donaldson in trade. Matt Carpenter’s versatility means Cardinals could add a 1B as easily as a 3B.
January 2, 2018 at 12:39 pm #41031NJ315ParticipantGet Hosmer.
January 2, 2018 at 4:26 pm #41035PadsFSParticipantHosmer doesn’t seem like an upgrade at first look, but shifting Gyorko to super-sub status likely keeps us from giving a lot of time to guys like Mejia, Valera, and Garcia. Or we could trade Gyorko, using the return to bolster an area of weakness elsewhere.
I somewhat stole this from someone over at GRB, but here’s the logic:
Last year’s group: Garcia (0.7), DeJong (3.0), Aledmys (0.2), Peralta (-0.5), Wong (2.1), Gyorko (2.5), Marp (2.9), Adams (0.3), Voit (0.3), and Martinez (appx 0.5 at 1B) = 12.0 wins
This year’s projections w/ PT factored in:
Hosmer, 2.8 WAR
Marp, 2.72
Wong, 1.6
DeJong, 1.98
Gyorko, 1.62
Garcia, 0.16
Martinez, 0.4That’s 11.28 wins from the infield mix. Of course, Steamer projects all of our incumbent players to backslide from last year’s production. Signing someone like Hosmer is like our front office believing these downward projections to be true and adds in some built-in stability to the core. It’s not a terrible choice given the dearth of infield prospects with substantial upside on the farm. If anyone in our current infield got hurt, we would really be hurting in my opinion.
Lineup-wise, it gives us much better balance as we would likely go with some combo of
Carp – L
Pham – R
Hosmer – L
Ozuna – R
Fowler – S
DeJong – R
Molina – R
Wong – L
Pitcher – R (with primary PH’s being Gyorko, Grichuk, and Martinez)January 2, 2018 at 4:32 pm #41036PadsFSParticipantCrazy-good OBP from those first five hitters ~ .385
January 2, 2018 at 4:36 pm #41037Moving Carp to 3rd makes him a major liability period just trade him if you are going to do that
January 2, 2018 at 5:07 pm #41038PadsFSParticipantFor his career, Carpenter is at -8 DRS and -2.3 UZR/150 at 3B. He was really poor in 2015, but seemed to bounce back in limited PT there in 2016/2017.
I don’t mind him at 3B with DeJong playing SS instead of Peralta and Diaz. I’m not convinced Gyorko is that much better than Carpenter personally. His DRS was much, much higher than his UZR too, which I always find suspect when that happens.
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