Hosmer/Moustakas free agents thread

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Hosmer/Moustakas free agents thread

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 324 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #40362
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    I have never said garbage. Ever.

    I HAVE said the money is better allocated elsewhere by WIDE margins.

    He is mediocre.

    We are not paying him to be mediocre.

    And yeah… Ok. 3 WAR on fangraphs. Yay. If you are impressed you arent paying attention.

    We are paying him more. 3 WAR in center is 2 on the corners.

    3 WAR is worth ten million per year or so. You dont accumulate value until mich higher.

    … And yes, I realize we never would sign anyone but superstars the way I do the math. That’s the point. Paying for mediocrity makes you mediocre.

    #40363
    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Free

    Aren’t Dexter’s injury issues chronic in nature?

    So, wouldn’t it seem reasonable to conclude they are going to bother him the next four years?

    Offensively, he was about what we expected. Defensively, I don’t know how the Cardinals whiffed so badly, given they’ve had Statcast data for years and should have been able to see through the mirage that is Wrigley field.

    The biggest reasons Fowler is bad for the Cardinals are that 1) They overpaid by 60% AAV and 100% in terms of contract value 2) He has a full NTC 3) Now we have a surplus of outfielders that I am sure the Cardinals want to see how they perform at the MLB level before trading them.

    #40364
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    Let me put it as starkly amd bluntly as I can on the WAR math.

    (Provided they are healthy) we would be better off signing trout, stanton, and kershaw for 60 million per year apiece and surrounding them with the memphis redbirds right now than we would screwing around with people like fowler.

    The contract is a bad joke.

    #40366
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    Another one — something like 70-80% of WAR value is accumulated by those above 4. Which means 70-80% of major league salary value is accumulated by … 50 or so players.

    Which means you divide 70-80% of total baseball salaries into those 50 players to see how the math works. Higher WAR is obviously worth significantly more.

    It is EXPONENTIAL. I understand people arent good at math or dont understand stuff like that but NO WAY is someone like fowler EVER worth even remotely pondering keeping much less trying to defend.

    The value is in superstars or young low paid players (preferably both).

    #40367
    atripleshyofthecycle
    Participant

    Free

    (Provided they are healthy) we would be better off signing trout, stanton, and kershaw for 60 million per year apiece and surrounding them with the memphis redbirds right now

    That team would be well under .500, and almost certainly in last place unless some other team used the same “logic.” How would last place make us any better than any other way? You talk about other people being bad at math, and yet you seem to have zero understanding of your own grandiose false statements.

    I get that you are smarter than the entire Cardinals front office. You’ve clearly demonstrated that. But you need to be careful that you don’t significantly reduce your own WAR from the shoulder surgery that you are clearly going to need from patting yourself on the back so rapidly and so often. Recovery from shoulder surgery is notoriously arduous.

    #40369
    thejager
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    1 WAR is worth approximately 8mil per year.

    Fowler was about 3 WAR in an injury laden year

    Fowler’s salary is 16.5 last year

    That would be 24 million value

    Seems a bargain with his performance

    Also his defense may not be great but if you think it wasn’t hampered by his foot unity then you are being bias.

    #40374
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Using that “foot injury” as an excuse is questionable unless you can measure his sensory status. Its MLB, players often play with some discomfort. To make that excuse for our CF-turned-LF’s ’17 performance is something his mother might blame it on.

    #40375
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    1 war is worth exponentially more the better the player.

    For fowler? Nope. Definitely not.

    Fowler is worth 10 million per year if you are feeling extremely generous. And that’s if he gets above 3 WAR CONSISTENTLY.

    1-3 war players are by definition replaceable and worth less.

    #40376
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    ..and that memphis team plus those three players would be better than the team we have now. There’s a reason people were saying we could field two .500 teams last year.

    #40377
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    So, now some suspect Fowler was faking injury, which resulted in two stints on the DL list? Really?

    June 25-July 6
    July 25-August 7

    I ask again. What is the explanation for his team-leading OPS the final two months after coming off the DL the second time? Instead, I get full season data.

    P.S. I did not mean to suggest anyone else used the word “garbage”. Anyone reading the thread knows that word was not cited by anyone but me. I was using it in the general term, as in “take out the garbage”, referring to those who either want him benched or traded (which any realist knows is not happening any time in the foreseeable future).

    #40378
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Triple…. we have players at Memphis that can outperform what the Cards plan to run out there ’18. The AAA guys know what it feels like to win something. Flaherty probably won more awards than the entire Cards ’18 probable 25-man roster. Geez he was an all-star on two separate teams in the ’17 season. (Its MiLB but it shows a ton of probability for MLB success.)

    All of the MLB all-stars went through a minor league system… they just didn’t walk into major-league stadiums and start performing. Sorry to state the obvious but some folks don’t follow our farm system and don’t realize the potential MLB talent that they possess… some are “just trade the prospects” followers. Some don’t know one prospect from the others. That amazes me.

    #40379
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    All you have to do to prove that WAR numbers arent all created equal is to try and put together a lineup with 27 1-WAR players.

    Then put together one with nine 3-WAR players.

    If you cant figure out the reasons I say WAR value is exponential and not linear, you got issues.

    #40380
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    C2016 commented: Aren’t Dexter’s injury issues chronic in nature?

    So, wouldn’t it seem reasonable to conclude they are going to bother him the next four years?

    Offensively, he was about what we expected. Defensively, I don’t know how the Cardinals whiffed so badly, given they’ve had Statcast data for years and should have been able to see through the mirage that is Wrigley field.

    The biggest reasons Fowler is bad for the Cardinals are that 1) They overpaid by 60% AAV and 100% in terms of contract value 2) He has a full NTC 3) Now we have a surplus of outfielders that I am sure the Cardinals want to see how they perform at the MLB level before trading them.
    ***************************************************************
    This is the stuff that worries me about 4 more years. Period.

    #40383
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Why in the world does every thread have to be hijacked to discuss the merits of the Dexter Fowler signing?

    Yes, he was an overpay.
    We get it!
    Got it!
    Really, we get it!

    But guess what, he isn’t a terrible player and he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon so let it go. We have bigger fish to fry.

    I’m sure the Cubs aren’t happy about the Heyward deal but instead of obsessing about it they are making plans to acquire Darvish, Macahdo, and Davis so they can kick our *** once again.

    #40387
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    MLB.com is running this article:

    Cardinals boast NL’s hardest-hitting OF duo, according to Statcast

    ***********************************************************************
    Notice if you will that the duo is Pham and Ozuna. Also Pham’s OAA= +6, Ozuna =+1 Fowler= -9. And who is making all the $$.

    #40396
    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Free

    ..because if there are bigger fish to fry than adjusting your payroll to get better players by removing BY FAR the worst negative value on your team then your priorities are wrong.

    Edit : by negative value I mean we are paying him way more for longer than he is giving us. 2nd worst is yadi but at least yadi has mitigating reasons to keep him to an extent (training kelly and he is better than stats are really able to capture in some areas).

    #40400
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    RE: Bader and Flaherty

    Brian Walton did his own story found on our HOME page.

    #40401
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    14NyquisT, thanks but there is a separate thread about Bader and Flaherty, started yesterday.

    This thread is about Fowle… er… Hosmer and Moustakas… 😉

    Seriously, we already have an “Outfield, who stays and who goes” thread that had significant earlier Fowler discussion. Those who want to go on further about him might consider taking the talk there. Or start a new thread on Fowler specifically.

    #40991
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    From Jon Morosi. (FWIW, I agree with him.)

    Hard to imagine a scenario in which Mike Moustakas accepts a one-year deal, even a lucrative one, with intent of reentering market next winter. He’d face greater competition then, with Machado and Donaldson available as free agents.

    https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/948033266384297986

    #41028
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    From Morosi:

    Source: #STLCards remain involved in pursuit of Eric Hosmer, among other options to upgrade lineup. Cardinals also interested in third basemen, including Josh Donaldson in trade. Matt Carpenter’s versatility means Cardinals could add a 1B as easily as a 3B.

    https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/948240764911456258

    #41031
    NJ315
    Participant

    Get Hosmer.

    #41035
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Hosmer doesn’t seem like an upgrade at first look, but shifting Gyorko to super-sub status likely keeps us from giving a lot of time to guys like Mejia, Valera, and Garcia. Or we could trade Gyorko, using the return to bolster an area of weakness elsewhere.

    I somewhat stole this from someone over at GRB, but here’s the logic:

    Last year’s group: Garcia (0.7), DeJong (3.0), Aledmys (0.2), Peralta (-0.5), Wong (2.1), Gyorko (2.5), Marp (2.9), Adams (0.3), Voit (0.3), and Martinez (appx 0.5 at 1B) = 12.0 wins

    This year’s projections w/ PT factored in:

    Hosmer, 2.8 WAR
    Marp, 2.72
    Wong, 1.6
    DeJong, 1.98
    Gyorko, 1.62
    Garcia, 0.16
    Martinez, 0.4

    That’s 11.28 wins from the infield mix. Of course, Steamer projects all of our incumbent players to backslide from last year’s production. Signing someone like Hosmer is like our front office believing these downward projections to be true and adds in some built-in stability to the core. It’s not a terrible choice given the dearth of infield prospects with substantial upside on the farm. If anyone in our current infield got hurt, we would really be hurting in my opinion.

    Lineup-wise, it gives us much better balance as we would likely go with some combo of

    Carp – L
    Pham – R
    Hosmer – L
    Ozuna – R
    Fowler – S
    DeJong – R
    Molina – R
    Wong – L
    Pitcher – R (with primary PH’s being Gyorko, Grichuk, and Martinez)

    #41036
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Crazy-good OBP from those first five hitters ~ .385

    #41037
    Onyxgem
    Participant

    Free

    Moving Carp to 3rd makes him a major liability period just trade him if you are going to do that

    #41038
    PadsFS
    Participant

    For his career, Carpenter is at -8 DRS and -2.3 UZR/150 at 3B. He was really poor in 2015, but seemed to bounce back in limited PT there in 2016/2017.

    I don’t mind him at 3B with DeJong playing SS instead of Peralta and Diaz. I’m not convinced Gyorko is that much better than Carpenter personally. His DRS was much, much higher than his UZR too, which I always find suspect when that happens.

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 324 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.