Cardinals OF roundup, who stays and who goes? (Grichuk)

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  • #40848
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    DEPTH is why you keep Grichuk. While the Cards may have been willing to trade him this off-season, they may have dealt away Piscotty instead.

    Here is some real-life data – DL stints for Cardinals outfielders last season (this does not count performance demotions):

    May 5-20: Piscotty
    May 7-29: Jose Martinez
    June 25-July 6: Fowler
    July 14-21: Grichuk
    July 15-August 1: Piscotty
    July 25-August 7: Fowler

    That is six different DL moves affecting the outfield over five months. (The DL is not really used in September.)

    So, tell me again how there will be no opportunity for Bader and O’Neill all season long in 2018.

    #40913
    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Free

    I’m not saying there won’t be ANY opportunity.

    Given how the Cardinals front office operates – i.e., they tend to only trade in 1:1 ratios. And given the price of free agent relievers these last two years, and given Goold’s reporting that the Cardinals are not looking to acquire a closer or near-closer in free agency, but rather through trade, I simply say:

    Are the Cardinals more likely to trade one current MLB player to address their bullpen needs, or are they more likely to trade multiple prospects?

    We have two years to find out whether Bader, O’Neill or Garcia will ever be a viable MLB outfielder. The first year a player is up in MLB, they typically get sent down one or two times. Why not just plan on sending them up and down and developing three at once?

    But yes, if I truly thought the Cardinals were WS contenders this year, it would make sense to keep Grichuk as that 4th OF.

    #40917
    PadsFS
    Participant

    I don’t like the idea of holding onto a declining asset. Right now, Grichuk still has some trade value. However, if he is shuffled around as a 4th outfielder, I think he will lose all of his value by next winter, especially with one less year of control and a higher arbitration price tag.

    Piscotty was exactly the same. Both are starter-worthy candidates for a below-average team. Why not cash in Grichuk now and get a couple pieces that are further away like we accomplished with the Piscotty deal?

    This is especially important if we trade for a closer like Colome and lose more of our prospect base.

    If the Blue Jays really think they can contend maybe we can pull Bo Bichette from them (adding something else to the deal of course) or, more likely, get Lourdes Gurriel, who had a down year.

    #41522
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    From Nightengale, not the locals.

    The #STLCards sign Randal Grichuk to one-Year, $2.6 million deal, avoiding arbitration

    https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/951543872152195072

    #41523
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    All kinds of confused people overreacting on Twitter, so I posted this.

    Surprised at # of people who do not understand what Grichuk decision means. He had already been tendered a contract by #stlcards for 2018. All today means is 2 sides agreed on the amount. He might be slightly more tradeable since salary is set, but today’s news is no big deal.

    https://twitter.com/B_Walton/status/951556624673660933

    #41525
    Bw52
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Why not keep Grichuk around?With Pham`s injury/eye issues and Fowlers foot/heel problems. why not have a solid bat and versatile OF who can provide solid defense and some pop .What is totally dumb to me is that people expect Wonderboy Pham to repeat or exceed his 2017 season.His past history says it aint gonna happen.Reality will set in and i expect a .260-.280 BA 15v HRs 70 RBIs and 15 stealss and at least one stint on the DL.AS for Fowler-the sooner he is gone the happier i will be.Way too expensive and lousy defense to goi along with the terrible contract.

    #41527
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Bw52, you illustrated the rub. Some people like players that others do not – and vice-versa.

    #41562
    858booyah
    Participant

    Free

    Seems like a steep price that it appears on paper in normal seasons this team didn’t seem to want to pay.

    If they keep him I’m not too worried about it but it would seem Bader would be a better fit. We shall see!

    #41566
    Bw52
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I suspect Bader will start at Memphis with Tyler O`Neill and Adolis Garcia.Of course Pham or Fowler will break down and Bader will see PT in STLouis.

    #41567
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    I don’t know if Pham can follow up on his ’17 season offensively, but there is some evidence that he can. TP came up through the Card’s organization, drafted in the 16th round in ’06 as an 18 y.o. He struggled mightily at the plate through his first 4 seasons, but he kept advancing upward. In 2010 he opened some eyes for the first time when he went to Springfield from PB and improved on his numbers significantly.

    In ’11 he stayed at SPFD and had a solid season, but followed that with an injury-plagued, toss-out ’12 when he managed only 39 at-bats. A fast start at SPFD in ’13 got him to Memphis and he had very solid years in ’14 & ’15 for the Redbirds. So much so that he was playing part-time in STL in ’15 and ’16.

    His ’17 season started out like the previous two with Pham going to MEM to start the season. But as you remember the injuries and poor performance of others got him into the starting lineup and he ran with the opportunity.

    TPham’s career in our system spans 12 seasons filled with ups and downs, injuries and accusations of toughness when he sat out injuries longer than most expected. His eye problems may not have been diagnosed until recently and may have troubled him going back to his earlier days. 12 years is a long time to play MiLB ball. Maybe he got so sick of it that he doesn’t want to go back…. ever. Pham won’t be 30 until March, and no one can say that he hasn’t endured.

    So I’m not going along with that regression principle, not in this case. Pham is no rookie and not some kid. Its no doubt that he has enjoyed his new-found stardom and just has to continue to get on base and add to his increasing power numbers to keep on enjoying some notoriety. He’s made all of the stops along the way AND he’s one of our guys! Just trying to keep it real.

    #41570
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Bw52, if there is an outfield injury, it will be interesting to see if Grichuk, Jose Martinez or Bader gets a majority of the opened-up playing time.

    #41589
    Bw52
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Brian-considering Martinez is a poor OF and bader does offer a good skill set also i would hope its between RG and Bader.Keep Martinez at 1B where he casn`t kill you with his Dick Stuart defense.

    #41591
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Hope vs. reality check.

    Martinez games played 2017, StL:

    OF 40
    1B 33

    P.S. On a 25-man roster, there will not be room for all three reserves – Martinez, Grichuk and Bader. I hope I don’t have to tell you which two will stay.

    #41719
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    OK, like I said I would do, I asked Mo how the OF would be aligned. He said that when he went to see Fowler, Fowler said he prefers right field over left. So there is your decision, cemented by the fact Ozuna, who was acquired after that conversation, is obviously very good in left.

    #41829
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    Good comments on Pham, 14NyquisT. I have always been a “Pham Phan”, and agree that he is a guy who canget better. He’s a mature, hard working guy who is not likely to be satisfied with the status quo.

    I have thought he should play more since he first showed that athleticism and power in the bigs in 2015. Matheny seemed reluctant to use him, although some of that may have been Pham’s vision issues as he had an alarmingly high strikeout rate when used sparingly. Hard to say if it was that, or not getting a chance to play regularly and get into a steady routine. A recurring theme in baseball is that players always perform better when they play every day, rather than being out of the lineup the after making a mistake or having a bad game. When you have talent, as a manager you let ’em play.

    #41872
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Pham attributes his poor 2016 at both Memphis and St. Louis to new lenses. Check the Sunday Winter Warm-Up notes.

    #41876
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    I wouldn’t say that Matheny was “reluctant”. He had every reason in the world to keep on the bench due to TP’s incredible K rate at the end of ’16. Check that out. It was undoubtedly a case of poor vision. Don’t blame MM for that. At that point in time, I was blaming him for playing Pham at all.

    #41890
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It was an unusual situation in 2016. Pham said his vision was better (20-15), but he couldn’t play. He had spent a lot of money on the new lenses, which were so new they were not covered by his insurance, so he wanted to give them the season. At the end of the year, he went back to his old lenses.

    As noted, his 2016 was not good in terms of results, either at Memphis or St. Louis. His spring training 2017 was no better, which irks me that people with 20-20 hindsight say he should have made the team out of spring training ahead of Martinez. Their numbers were nowhere close.

    It is great that Pham emerged and I hope he is successful for a long time, but I don’t buy the narrative that he was being kept from earned playing time.

    #41902
    thejager
    Participant

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    I remember a couple Spring Trainings ago and Pham was absolutely tearing it up…and i was at the game where he in left field went after a ball and messed up his quad…which basically messed him up for the year… it was tough because i think he had turned a major corner going into that spring training and then he had to start it all over again

    even in the minors it seems he has had a combination of bad luck and bad genes…(with his eyes)….but when he is healthy he is rock solid…

    I am not sure he will be 30/30…but i just dont see him falling off the cliff unless he is injured…

    my main worry is that Pham, DeJong, Weaver…all of them now have shown the league what they have and the league will adjust as much as they will try to not have their play torn apart… staying healthy and conditioning is important and all…but you have to adjust because there are rooms of people in every organization out there trying to find holes in your game to take advantage of

    #41994
    nbr1hawkeye
    Participant

    Free

    14Nyquis…

    I agree with you 100% on Pham. I think he is going to surprise a lot of people, maybe even me. The more I think about it the more I can envision Pham putting up numbers comparable to Ozuna’s. Probably more strike-outs, but he has (imo) a chance to beat last years BA,OB, and maybe even SLG.

    He has arrived and it has taken him a long time to get here. I see the fire… the determination in his eyes. He is probably thinking about his 3 arbitration years, knowing that, at his age, his chance to get that 1 big contract is still there, but time is precious and he can ill-afford significant DL time, much less poor production when healthy.

    I also see a synergy developing in the outfield. I’m being to optimistic, but I see (in my crystal ball) 100 runs and 100 rbi’s for both Pham and Ozuna.

    Back to who stays and who goes; Originally, I wanted to dump Fowler’s contract (mostly just to save money), but that was not going to happen. That leaves Grichuck, Bader, and O’Neil as the most desirable prospects/young, controllable players.

    I like Grichuck a lot, but for me if they have to include a young, controllable OF to get a pitcher (Colome, Archer, other?) or a corner IF (McMahon, Rodgers, Other?). I know Rodgers is a
    SS, but either he or DeJong could move over to 3B. COL probably wouldn’t want a OF. At least not as a centerpiece of a deal (although I do believe that Colorado would be good for Grich… and vice-versa). I’d part with O’Neil in the right deal.

    #42001
    bccran
    Participant

    Are you sure Martinez, Grichuk, and Bader won’t all make the roster? I have penciled in, at this time, a bench of the 3 of them, Kelly and Greg Garcia. Gives you a lot of both infield and outfield flexibility.

    #42003
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t see how all three of them could make the roster if we are going to carry eight relievers, which we usually do.

    #42021
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Mo confirmed this past weekend that they will carry eight relievers (he said eight relievers is in his blood), but also noted that with the breaks in the first-week schedule plus the fact the minor leagues open a week later, they might be able to go with seven relievers the first week only.

    So, technically, Bader could make the opening day roster, but even if so, he would be back in Memphis by April 5 (assuming other OFs are healthy).

    #42028
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I have very high hopes for Pham, also. I have been having the same kinds of thoughts that nbr1hawkeye has posted. Having the kind of mentality that Pham has about excelling and competing is a big deal, IMO. Regarding outfielders, I’m wondering if Adolis Garcia isn’t going to move past Bader and O’Neill at some point this summer. Grichuk, and maybe another promising prospect, seems like it ought to be able to get just about any available player we want. Its surprising that a trade like tha hasn’t happened hasn’t happened.

    #42031
    bccran
    Participant

    Wonder if any other MLB franchise will have a 2018 AAA outfield equal to Bader, O’Neill, and Garcia. With Arozarena and Mercado backing them up.

Viewing 25 posts - 251 through 275 (of 350 total)
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