Baseball America Top Prospects

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Baseball America Top Prospects

This topic contains 90 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by  Brian Walton 2 days, 15 hours ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 91 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #37342

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    In the 2017 Handbook, Helsley was unranked (not top 30 in the system) but was listed as the eighth name – among the RH relievers! They named 14 right-handed starters, with 11 ranked, and Helsley was not among them.

    #37343

    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    That is quite a jump then. Of course being left out totally was strange since at least 1 year he was a top 20 league selection.

    #37345

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Only a guess, but perhaps different analysts did different lists.

    #37380

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Community selections had Gallen(9) and Gomber(10). Helsley-Hicks-Arozarena-JAGarcia-Knizner were 11 to 15. Also, Flaherty ahead of Kelly, same as BA.

    #42348

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    BA’s new national top 100 is out. Four Cardinals.

    Reyes #17, Flaherty #53, Kelly #55, O’Neill #86. Note no Bader.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/#503rVUdVXl18h3RP.97

    #42358

    PadsFS
    Participant

    Alcantara at #70. I’d bet money he wouldn’t have been ranked if he wasn’t traded.

    I don’t see how the Dodgers catcher passed Kelly. He’s better than Kelly was at the same age, same level, but Kelly wasn’t ranked back then. What Kelly has done in the last two years is the best case scenario for this Ruiz kid. Ridiculous.

    Flaherty is far too low imo. He should be top 25.

    Reyes is better than every one of those 5 RHPs ahead of him, but I guess the injury is enough of a red flag to drop him. It apparently wasn’t during the mid-season top 100 when they had him higher than every other pitcher in baseball. So much has changed since then though right? Whatever….I don’t remember them dropping Giolito or Glasnow that far after surgery, but I may not be remembering things right.

    Bader probably doesn’t deserve to be a top 100 player.

    #42363

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    I brought up Bader specifically because some posters here already have his name penciled onto the St. Louis roster. I expect a good spring fight between him and O’Neill and if the latter has a hot spring, he could easily be the one riding in the parade on Opening Day instead. It is not like Bader’s handful of at-bats with St. Louis last season stood out.

    #42364

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    The Dodgers catcher has a lot of momentum. Kelly has none.

    I don’t know the other pitchers well enough to compare, but in the only other new top 100 I have seen (BaseballHQ), Flaherty is #41. Not top 25. As more national lists are announced, I will do my annual comparison articles.

    Reyes is #8 on HQ’s list, though they lowered his career ceiling. Much more on that in an upcoming subscriber article series.

    #42365

    mudville
    Participant

    I think we can add Adolis Garcia to the competition for the outfield. He could be the biggest surprise of ST.

    #42366

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Adolis is a very promising player, but has far less Triple-A experience than the other two and unlike them, is not on the 40-man. With the Cards wanting to get good looks at Bader and O’Neill, since there is now a real job open, I suspect Garcia will not get adequate at-bats this spring to compete for St. Louis. And if so, it would not bother me. But this is just my educated guess.

    #42374

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    “The Dodgers catcher has a lot of momentum. Kelly has none.”
    ********************************************************************
    Can you explain this as far as momentum is involved?

    #42375

    PadsFS
    Participant

    I personally feel like Flaherty is top 25. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pitcher dominate the way he did in AA and AAA in 2017, with good peripherals and at a very young age too. His innings load was 160 too, which is very promising as he’s basically ready for a full year of pitching right now. Compared to Weaver and Reyes, that has to look good to Cardinal management.

    #42379

    858booyah
    Participant

    I think a lot of people see Bader in STL due to Fowler appearing to have lost a step and the need of a more pure CF. O’Neill has dabbled in CF but then again they want to play Fowler in RF. So if O’Neill some how makes the roster. I don’t see them with much hesitation putting Fowler or Ozuna in CF should an injury or day off is needed for Pham. Just the way I see things.

    That being said Bader is likely the front runner based on Matheny’s familiarity with him from his stint with the team even if O’Neill has a little bit better spring. That is unless all power on personnel has been stripped from MM.

    #42380

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    I do not understand the logic that a “pure” CF is needed most when all of the other outfielders on the team (except Martinez) can also play a credible center. Bader’s perceived advantage, which I believe is small, could increase or disappear entirely during March games.

    I think the most important criteria in making the decision will be the bat. Who can come off the bench and deliver the big hit – more than who can come in and play the best CF defense? Remember the bench is going to be just four players, two of whom are Kelly and Greg Garcia. May the best man win this spring.

    P.S. I am sure 99.9% of us would have said a year ago at this time that the very familiar Pham was a virtual lock to make the team and outsider Martinez would be in Memphis. That is why they have spring training.

    #42383

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Pads, we do not disagree with how well Flaherty stacks up against other Cardinals pitchers. However, the question on the table is not that – it is the national top 25. The only way to answer that is to compare him to the other organizations’ pitchers ahead of him (and/or the other hitters). I admit I am not familiar enough with the others to do that, but respect those who take on that task. Not an easy job.

    #42386

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    14NyquisT, I think you know where I am coming from. Kelly is in a tough position, where he is not going to be able to grow appreciably while warming up relievers in the bullpen. In 2 1/2 months with St. Louis, he got just 69 at-bats and OPSed .457. (That is OPS, not SLG.) And more than a third of those very limited at-bats came in the final week when Molina was out with his concussion. A player can take BP until his hands are raw and watch film for days on end, but there are some who believe it is not ever going to be the same as participating in live game action on a daily basis.

    A 19-year old catcher expected to debut at Double-A has more development runway ahead of him. Of course, he has more yet to prove than Kelly and may not make it, but I understand those who see he has a chance based on his tools and what he has accomplished to date.

    If ranking was just based on how close players are to the majors, it would be easy. Just put all the Triple-A guys first and work down from there. But when all is said and done, rankings are someone’s informed opinions. They are not gospel.

    #42392

    PadsFS
    Participant

    Brian Walton

    Pads, we do not disagree with how well Flaherty stacks up against other Cardinals pitchers. However, the question on the table is not that – it is the national top 25. The only way to answer that is to compare him to the other organizations’ pitchers ahead of him (and/or the other hitters). I admit I am not familiar enough with the others to do that, but respect those who take on that task. Not an easy job.

    Didn’t he get pitcher of the year honors in both the Texas League and the Pacific Coast?

    #42394

    PadsFS
    Participant

    Brian Walton

    A 19-year old catcher expected to debut at Double-A has more development runway ahead of him. Of course, he has more yet to prove than Kelly and may not make it, but I understand those who see he has a chance based on his tools and what he has accomplished to date.

    Kelly did exactly that heading into 2016, debuting at AA at 19-years old. He’s done nothing to diminish his runway. That’s my point. Best case scenario for Ruiz would be matching Kelly’s path or besting it, which (as Chance Sisco has shown) is difficult. Kelly is very underrated for a catcher imo.

    #42396

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    PadsFs said:

    Didn’t he get pitcher of the year honors in both the Texas League and the Pacific Coast?

    No, Wilmer Font of the Dodgers was the 2017 PCL Pitcher of the Year – but that does not make him a top prospect. That means he had a good season. Apples and oranges.

    #42397

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    PadsFs said:

    Best case scenario for Ruiz would be matching Kelly’s path or besting it…

    You got it. This particular prospect rater must feel that Ruiz can best Kelly. However as we saw in the ESPN rankings, Keith Law flips the two.

    #42399

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    More data points you won’t like. In their positional rankings, BaseballHQ has Kelly behind Mejia and Pint and among starting pitchers only, Flaherty is #17.

    #42401

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    I think it has been fairly well demonstrated that prospect lists hate the cards.

    At times I get really frustrated. Right now I’m just shrugging. It is as predictable as the sunrise.

    Well, that and we’ve got a foot of snow with another foot coming.

    #42403

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    I think it has been fairly well demonstrated that prospect lists hate the (insert your favorite team’s name here).

    If you doubt this, go over and peruse the reader comments following the BA top 100.

    #42407

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    I dont doubt the sentiment.

    If I remember the math correctly, we’ve spent huge parts of the last couple decades in the lower half of prospect lists while spending most of the time in the playoffs (and overall in the top 5 of WAR produced).

    There is sentiment and reality.

    Baseball america is specifically ridiculously cub centric.

    Remember corey patterson the #1 prospect in baseball? Lol

    #42416

    858booyah
    Participant

    Well Brian if O’Neill has a better spring then I agree he should be there. However unless some personnel decisions have been stripped from Matheny then he’ll fight lile hell for Bader to be here if its nip and tuck. He has favorites as we all know.

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 91 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years