Affiliate observations

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This topic contains 306 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by  Brian Walton 3 days, 12 hours ago.

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  • #36965

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    The 2017 draft was clouded by the Cards losing their 3 top picks because of datagate and the Fowler signing. I believe that the lost picks are sorely missed. IMO, a top-notch pitcher or hitter at any of the lower minor teams were missed and will be felt through the next few seasons.

    Here’s how the 2017 draft selections were dispersed in the organization:
    Peoria- received 1 P (Kruczynski) and 1 position player (Robertson) total 2.
    St.College- 4 Ps and 3 hitter total 7
    Johnson City- 6 Ps and 4 hitters total 10
    GCL Cards- 10 Ps and 5 hitters total 15

    4 draft picks did not sign and there were initially 4 UFAs signed.

    The GCL Cards also added 16 International players.

    The GCL roster is usually down to a few players and is filled with the draft selections and DSL signees added.

    The 2018 Johnson City roster will be made up from the draftees and graduates from the GCL roster of ’17. There may be a few who repeat a season at JC.
    This ought to give some clues as to what the initial Mountain Cards roster will look like for ’18.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by  14NyquisT.
    #36968

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    The comparable 2016 picks to the three spots lost in 2017 are Delvin Perez, Connor Jones and Zac Gallen. To date, only Gallen has made much of an impact. But it is still early for Perez. I am not sure not having the three would leave a big hole in the system.

    Having said that, of course, it would have been better to have the three 2017 picks than not.

    #36975

    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    77 1st and 2nd round picks in 2016. 17 have made it to AA or higher. Jones is one of them.

    #36977

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Technically, Jones did make it for one start at the end. I see the community ranked him #23, so I need to make sure I don’t sell him short.

    #37001

    SoonerinNC
    Participant

    Jones was sort of under the radar. He made a unexpected number of quality starts. Don’t remember the exact number but I think 13-15 range.

    #37027

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    When I see “Cardinals” and “prospects” in the same sentence I usually have to read anything that follows. This is good example and a must read for those following the affiliates and their rankings.

    Copy-paste.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/latest-prospect-rankings-show-how-cardinals-talent-has-pooled-at/article_b934d0cc-d8e1-5c1b-9e2d-125a00815434.html

    #37028

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    The good news is a number of prospects are getting close. Not as good news is that the next wave after them is unclear. Of course, those players have more time to emerge.

    #37032

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Regarding the Arizona Fall League, with 16 of the scheduled 30 game season played we have some prospects with good numbers and some not so good. But it’s 16 games. Knizner is getting the bulk of the catching duties and in his 10 games played he has hit in every one. His BA is .341 but that’s only 16th in the league known to be hitter-friendly. Mercado is also finding the success he displayed earlier on in the Springfield season. That is something to be optimistic about because I was concerned about his numbers dropping in the last two months.

    The Cards have been teamed with 4 other MLB teams sending prospects down to the desert. We are the only NL team representing the Surprise team so the prospects are getting a great opportunity to see how how it is to play outside of the organization. I’m guessing that each one is working on “weaknesses” and learning new approaches with different instructors. Hence a lack of concern regarding inflated ERAs.

    Getting back to Knizner… his continued success may have some people re-thinking the Card’s catching situation and what the three year contract given to Molina means to Knizner AND Kelly. As Kiz improves and is destined for Memphis in ’18 with a full season of playing time, Kelly, on the other hand, will be in the majors but most likely taking on the backup role. There’s reason to believe that… advantage Knizner. His timeline and ETA is more compatible with Molina’s departure. But so much can happen in three years… the number of years that Molina’s contract covers. I was adamant about how that will be a problem for Kelly …. as long as he stays in the organization. I was against a two year contract for Molina, but three years is IMO ridiculous. Especially if you take into account Yadi’s insistence on getting his playing time on his terms and the lack of tutoring devoted to his replacement.

    How the drama plays out will be interesting indeed.

    #37033

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    One thing to add. Knizner has been playing at first base as much as he has been catching in Arizona. That positional diversity can only help in the future.

    #38852

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    BW, you mention the new wave of starters. So far, DGonzalez#48, – Oxnevad#39 – O’Reilly#33 – Tewes#29 have made the top-50 here. Gallen, Hicks, Fernandez, Woodford, and Jones will be among the final 26 spots left.
    That wave seems solid enough, but the third wave appears to be somewhat shallow. However, like you commented there is time to develop some of the arms farther down the line. But still an iffy situation.

    #38855

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    IMO, the big questions are Seijas and Oviedo. Without them stepping up, yes, there looks to be a gap.

    #38861

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Peoria, State College and Johnson City have projected rotations that are lacking in strength and numbers. Hopefully the June draft will provide some help for SC and JC. Peoria, looks to me to be in serious trouble that the draft will not be able to be the solution for.

    The depth chart looks like an upside down Christmas tree… or tepee.

    #38870

    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    They used to say they had a donut hole. Now they have a mushroom.

    #38873

    Cardinals27
    Participant

    There is getting to be a logjam for starters at AA and AAA. The potential trades, Stanton or others, should thin this situation down. But I wonder if some of the current starters would be moved to the pen. Keep 2 of our top prospects in starters roles as 6th/7th starters. I think Helsley, Hudson, and Alcantara could be candidates for the St Louis builpen with their top notch stuff. And Derian Gonzalez could move very fast as a reliever.

    #38874

    PadsFS
    Participant

    They could hold some pitchers back a little, which due to the quick promotions, would be more like a normal growth pattern. Oxnevad, Dobzanski, Williams, Farinaro, and Schlesener come to mind.

    I also like Rondon, Nicasio, Medina, and Blanco down there with Oviedo and Seijas. These 6 will probably start to make more noise in the coming year to pick up the vacuum effect of Fernandez, Gallen, Woodford, etc. moving up.

    Woodford and Fernandez are a good example of the quick promotions. They will be just 24 years old by the time 2021 rolls around. That’s four seasons from now for a couple guys in AA.

    #38911

    PadsFS
    Participant

    Didn’t want to derail the Stanton thread, but I can’t let this go C16! Haha

    Cardinals2016
    Cardinals have no 3B depth in the minors. Last year, one of the trades I suggested the Cardinals make, since at the time they refused to make multiple prospects for one MLB player, was trading a pitcher for Colton Welker of the Rockies. Didn’t you recently say you would be on board with trading for Welker? Now, at the time I first suggested it, Welker was ranked 24th in the Rockies system. He is now 4th in the Rockies system and 6th at 3B in the minors. He was drafted in the 4th round.

    I think this argument has a gaping hole in it in that just one year earlier Paul DeJong was drafted in the 4th round as a third baseman and is now the starting SS for the Cardinals. I am 100% sure that Colorado and Toronto would rather have DeJong than Welker or Bichette.

    Also, you mentioned just one draftee in 2016, Dylan Carlson, who signed way under slot giving us the ability to go over slot on 4 of the next 5 picks that year, including Dakota Hudson. The draft is just as much about bonus slots as it is about the player picked. See 2012 when we signed Ramsey, Wisdom, and Bean giving us the opportunity to sign Carson Kelly as well.

    Cardinals2016
    The problem I have with the high school position players the Cardinals draft in the 1st round is they draft them for their ability to draw walks (Carlson, Plummer), not for superb athleticism or power.

    How about pick right before Carlson when they drafted Delvin Perez? Also the previous HS position player they drafted before the two you mentioned was Kolten Wong. They have also picked 2nd rounders Oscar Mercado (athlete) and Carson Kelly (power).

    #39790

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    What are the prospects for our top-10 ranked prospects for going North in ’18? As it stands now not too good.

    #1 Reyes- After missing ’17, things are very iffy… not seen as an opening day starter and there’s less
    and less talk about him being in the bullpen.
    #2 Flaherty- Didn’t miss ’17 but rather out-produced the highest expectations. Ready for MLB but will
    likely be down in Memphis.
    #3 Kelly- With the addition of Pena, he might be headed back to AAA OR traded despite being an elite
    catching prospect.
    #4 O’Neill-Blocked by two high priced OFs and the team’s ’17 MVP; Plan C 4th OFer
    #5 Bader-(see #4) Plan B 4th OFer.
    #6 Hudson- Needs one more year of AAA seasoning, but behind Reyes and Flaherty.
    #7 Sierra- Gone
    #8 Alcantara- Gone
    #9 Gallen- Adios
    #10 (presumed new #7) Gomber- (see #6) but behind Reyes, Flaherty and Hudson.
    #11 (presumed new #8) Helsley- (see #10) but behind Reyes, Flaherty, Hudson and Gomber.
    #12 (presumed new #9) Hicks- Needs a season and a half of seasoning, right now behind Reyes, Flaherty, Hudson, Gomber and Helsley but could move up.
    #13 (presumed new #10) Arozarena (see #4) but behind O’Neill and Bader.
    #14 (presumed new #10A) JAGarcia (see #13) but behind O’Neill, Bader and Arozarena but could move up.
    *The new kids Munoz and Schrock may also be included.

    The reason for this quagmire is that the FO has failed to promote their top prospects. Rather they add MLB players, on the down side of their careers, to multiyear contracts that often stymies growth from within.

    At the present it takes major injuries in recent years for any upward movement to occur. Diaz helped out quite a bit in ’16…. (MVP)Pham….. (now starting SS) DeJong, not too shabby when given a chance.

    Like so many St Louis Cardinal fans are saying…. trade off all of these guys and get some real pros in here. Get Fowler, get Cecil, get Mikolas… not Reyes, not Flaherty, not Bader, not O’Neill or Hudson. Molina was signed for three years, so not Kelly. How’s that working out?

    An organization that once was once proud of their development from within, has now seen fit to bury prospects while deflating the morale of their farm system because of that exact reason. AAA Memphis, stock piled with MLBers clinched their division by like early June. A matter of the Cards not using what is right in front of them, but instead going the way of the Tigers. Detroit traded away their top farm hands for older MLBers and have a shell of an organization to show for it.

    Our minor league organization: play ’em or else trade ’em and let them find some appreciation and success elsewhere. What we may be left with is a bunch of has-beens collecting big fat checks and waiting for their next contract season to come around.

    Plus, a lot of folks find it exciting to watch our own guys from the system making good on our own team.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by  14NyquisT.
    #39792

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    To an extent I agree with that sentiment.

    However… It needs also be said that no matter what we simply dont have enough spots for the talent we have. Trading several players for stars like ozuna needs to keep happening.

    Our depth is just abnormal on a ton of levels. Sierra probably wasn’t even the best of the three guys we have at aa and aaa as an example. Gallen was one of about 10 guys we would need spots for within two years.

    Our infield has this type of depth too.

    I cant think of another org having this type of depth happen with 20 years of following systems. It is a little absurd.

    #39796

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Jeez my brain is slow

    I think sierra was the worst of FOUR cf guys we had at aa or higher

    1. Bader
    2. Mercado
    3. Arozarena
    4. Sierra

    I think we sold high on one hot mlb month… Sierra didnt really hit at aa.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by  Brianpnoonan.
    #39798

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Didn’t the Cards just trade THREE top 12 prospects (plus another) for Ozuna? Aren’t they also in the midst of trying to make other trades for established major leaguers, presumably with more prospects heading out?

    Seems an odd time to be complaining about the log jam of top prospects. I don’t see any of these prospects dying on the vine or running out of minor league options. In my opinion, having good backups and roster flexibility is not a bad thing.

    #39799

    PadsFS
    Participant

    You really think we don’t promote our prospects quick enough? That’s news to me.

    The great thing about blocking prospects with major leaguers is that there are two options. (1) Worst-case, the MLB vets (currently in your cross-hairs, Molina and Fowler, but also Pham, Wainwright, Wacha) get hurt and are out for the year, then we promote “blocked” prospects that can provide immediate help at above-replacement level production, which is a win imo. (2) The vets continue to produce (as both Molina and Fowler did last year) and the prospects either wait their turn or are used in a trade for areas where we don’t have above-average depth.

    As it stands, we have, at-the-ready, above-average depth at CA, SP, and OF. We have average depth at 1B (Voit), RP, and MI/3B (Munoz, Schrock)

    I’m pretty excited about our team. If they can add an elite reliever and/or upgrade SS/3B, we are the NL central favorites imo.

    #39800

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Brian, I’ve been very consistent in saying we need around three of those deals. Our depth, even with that is still absurd.

    And i will point out that yes we did just do that trade. we also picked up two similar prospects from oakland for piscotty. net on net, IMO we only really traded alcantara, piscotty, and the throw-in for ozuna. Those other two guys are VERY similar to gallen and sierra as prospects just at different positions.

    We’re in an absurd position that when we trade our excess big leaguers for minor leaguers, we are still contributing to our excess that we just dealt from for better players.

    In other words, we shouldn’t be REMOTELY done yet.

    #39801

    PadsFS
    Participant

    Brianpnoonan
    I think sierra was the worst of FOUR cf guys we had at aa or higher

    1. Bader
    2. Mercado
    3. Arozarena
    4. Sierra

    Well, O’Neill played CF during Memphis’s championship run too. Plus Adolis Garcia played there and did well.

    I’d go
    1. Bader
    2. O’Neill
    3. Sierra
    4. Garcia
    5. Arozarena
    6. Mercado

    Mercado played CF over Sierra when they were both at Springfield. I found that interesting since Sierra’s only defensive flaw is that he is inexperienced out there.

    #39803

    Brianpnoonan
    Participant

    Lol pads im good with the rankings (other points of view are great) but you rather just made my point for me.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by  Brianpnoonan.
    #39805

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Brianpnoonan, you also have look at positions. All prospects are not interchangeable. The two guys added from Oakland are both middle infielders. That is not an area of strength for the Cards. To be specific, before the trade, there were ZERO infielders among our site’s top 15 prospects. The best IF prospect has been Delvin Perez, who is light years away from St. Louis.

    The Cards’ prospect strength is pitching and outfield, which is exactly what they traded to Miami.

    I am not suggesting they are finished. I also have no issue with what has been done so far. I also don’t see there being a need to get in a big hurry to thin out the top prospects – just for the sake of opening up paths for others of them. The cream will rise to the top no matter what.

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First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years