2018 Projections thread

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This topic contains 35 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by  Brian Walton 1 week, 1 day ago.

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  • #40065

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for 2018 are out. They are for individual Cardinals players, not the team as a whole. Most of the key players are forecast at 2-3 WAR, not bad. Interesting that his #1 comp for Marcell Ozuna is Matt Holliday, based on the former’s last three seasons.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/

    #43451

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the Cards winning 84 and finishing in second place, one win ahead of Milwaukee. Cubs at 89.

    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

    #43452

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    USA TODAY sees the Cards winning 85 and finishing in third place, one game worse than Milwaukee.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/02/06/mlb-win-totals-2018/310313002/

    #43453

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    I noticed the Bernie discussion over on the Collusion thread, so I thought I would share this from his column today. Some very interesting math here as PECOTA is defended and his media peers are looked down upon.

    And these PECOTA projections will be ridiculed and trashed.

    Just like the spring of 2017 when PECOTA upset the baseball village with a dire forecast of 76 wins for the Cardinals.

    The Cards finished with 83 victories and tumbled to third place in the NL Central.

    Sure, PECOTA missed the mark by seven games.

    But that computer projection was a helluva lot closer to the truth than the sunshiny, blue-sky forecasts from fans and media that had the 2017 Cardinals winning 90+ games.

    So laugh at PECOTA at your own risk.

    Let’s see…

    83 minus 76 = 7
    90 minus 83 = 7

    So which difference of seven was a helluva lot larger than the other difference of seven?

    I did not see any projections above 90 last year. As I recall, Rick Hummel was the only one who even went as high as 90.

    https://www.101sports.com/2018/02/09/pecota-hates-cardinals-stories-dont-want-read-jupiter/

    #43498

    PadsFS
    Participant

    His writing plays well with the cardstalk crowd.

    #43504

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    It will be interesting to see how the PECOTA projections change with the Darvish signing. Cubs were at 89 wins. I wonder if that already assumed an Arrieta replacement. Would expect not, but I don’t know.

    #43548

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    ZiPS division/playoff/WS prob for Cubs before signing Yu Darvish: 58.4%/80.4%/9.0%. After: 71.9%/89.9%/12.1%

    https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/962729495039021056

    #43558

    mspaid
    Participant

    The best column Bernie has ever written. The Cardinal BS machine is the best of any organization in baseball. Many of the things Bernie said in jest will be said by the Cardinals and they will mean it. Then Mo will say he’s excited about this team and they’ll finish third again.

    #43569

    gscottar
    Participant

    Here is how I currently peg the NL Central:

    1. Cubs 94-68
    2. Brewers 87-75
    3. Cards 86-76
    4. Pirates 76-86
    5. Reds 74-88

    #43579

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Coupled with the earlier post, this is interesting.

    ZiPS if the Cards had signed Darvish (sorry, but people are asking). Without signing Darvish and him on the Cubs (Div/Playoff/WS), Cardinals at 17.2%/53.3%/3.8%. With Darvish on Cards instead, 31.8%/64.2%/5.7%.

    https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/962762530904002562

    So for the division, it looks like he has Cubs at 72%, Cards at 17, and that would leave the Brewers at 11. He still sees the Cards at slightly better than 50% (53%) to get a wild card.

    #43646

    858booyah
    Participant

    Seems to me that were looking at this all wrong. I think we need to look at from a NL perspective than a division one.

    1. Dodgers
    2. Cubs
    3. Nationals
    4. Rockies
    5. Brewers
    6. Cardinals
    7. D’Backs
    8. Mets
    9. Giants

    I expect Arizona to take a step back, the Giants to be about .500 and the Mets to be better then last season. Rockies have talent but it all falls on the pitching. I would say 6-9 are interchangable. This is IMO before Milwaukee signs a starter or anything else happens. 100 or so FA out there.

    #43661

    gscottar
    Participant

    That looks about right. We should be in the hunt for a wild card.

    If the Nats sign Arrieta they would be better than 3rd, at least on paper, but it is hard to take them serious until they can prove they won’t choke on the big stage.

    #43689

    PadsFS
    Participant

    I’m curious how the Brewers and Rockies are over us personally.

    #43703

    858booyah
    Participant

    Weren’t they last year Pads? I’d say of the 2 the Rockies are the least stable to repeat their performance from last year. Pitching in Colorado is never a stable thing.

    Milwaukee is set up to be better with the addition of a starter and the additions of Cain, Yelich and Chacin. I don’t think they can take out the Cubs but it’ll be closer than the Cubs and their fans would like. May come down to the last weekend of the season

    You could be right with the Giants improving, AZ taking a step back but still respectable and San Diego slowly improving. Wins might be a little harder to come by in the NL West this season.

    #43740
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Well its not that hard to believe Milwaukee and Rockies are better than us because they both finished 2017 better than us. Both teams made the playoffs while the Cardinals packed up their lockers. If Blackmon can repeat from last year I see the Rockies still being tough. Also the Giants have improved even if they got older. They should have a good lineup this year. And everyone is expecting Milwaukee to add a starting pitcher which would make them better especially with the additions of Cain and Yellich.

    PECOTA now has the Cubs 8 games better than the Cardinals.

    #43742

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    So according to PECOTA, adding Darvish gave the Cubs three wins, from 89 to 92. Apparently, BudChuck did not move the needle, as the Cards remain at 84.

    #43744
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Would you have expected him to move the needle? Career wise Norris has been barely better than replacement level according to his career WAR which is quite bad for someone who has been the league as long as he has.

    #43746

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Lighten up, BHC! šŸ˜‰

    #43755

    thejager
    Participant

    If the guy was in the same role his whole career i might care BHC…but he isnt…he is at worst a long man spot starter at best a solid vet for the back end

    Braden Looper was a terrible starter but was impressive as a vet reliever…you are finding a stat to fit your opinion instead of looking at the context of the whole career…

    you think the Cubs signed Morrow to be their closer because of his whole career stats as an oft ijnured starter or as the guy who flashed some brilliance last year in his new role as late inning reliever for the Dodgers

    IMO…i think we should have ticked up by about 1 game with the Norris signing…as it replaces a good youngster or fringe reliever from HAVING to succeed at a high level…

    #43763
    BlackHillsCard
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Have you seen his spits? Even as a relief pitcher with last year’s First Half being the outlier, his stats are pretty bad. A mediocre pitcher like Norris will move the needle by a fraction if not in a negative way.

    #43769

    gscottar
    Participant

    In all fairness Norris was quite good last year until he got injured. It is reasonable to explain his poor second half on his knee injury. I’m not claiming he is going to be Craig Kimbrel for us but he was a decent signing. Just not good enough to move the needle towards a NL Central title.

    I would also add that while it is ok to talk about the NL as a whole it is still important to focus on winning the NL Central and not just settle for a wild card. Avoiding that one game shootout would be nice. I guess we have to walk before we run though. Apparently our strategy is to try to chip away at the separation between us and the Cubs a little at a time instead of all at once. The problem is that I’m not sure we chipped away at all this winter.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 4 days ago by  gscottar.
    #43871

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Deadspin founder and new MLB columnist Will Leitch, also a Cardinals fan, offers his predictions.

    Chicago Cubs: 93-69
    St. Louis Cardinals: 88-74
    Milwaukee Brewers: 86-76
    Cincinnati Reds: 78-84
    Pittsburgh Pirates: 68-94

    https://www.mlb.com/news/joey-votto-tommy-pham-lead-nl-central-players/c-266426978

    #43875

    Onyxgem
    Participant

    I see cards at a 85-87 win team at tops.

    #43876

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Fangraphs has some very interesting projections.

    Cubs 94
    Cards 88 (1st wild card)
    Brewers 78
    Pirates 77
    Reds 74

    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

    #43881

    858booyah
    Participant

    Was that With Darvish added.

    With about 100 FA without jobs we can talk about where we think teams are but we really won’t know for a couple weeks.

    Milwuakee just signed Wade Miley. Maybe not a earth shattering signing but a return to the NL might help him. He might be in a good spot at the back end of the rotation. I think he’s better than Gallardo.

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