2018 Draft

This topic contains 22 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by  Cardinals27 6 days, 7 hours ago.

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  • #43071

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    It is never too early to start thinking about who the Cards might take in the first round.

    Draft analyst Scott Schook looks at a trio of potential college power-hitting draft candidates.

    http://thecardinalnation.com/2018-cardinals-draft-preview-college-sluggers/

    #43074

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Of these three, I’d like to see Bohm’s name called out by the Cardinals. Baker is eliminated because he is slow as Molina and I can’t wrap my head around any young player being that slow.

    I really can’t wait for draft day 1. We’ll actually have some picks 5 of the 1st 100 should be interesting. The organization should be going for college prospects because they have to catch up and fill the void left by the ’17 draft. Its an abyss.

    #43075

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Quite an interesting observation, especially when you consider that two years before, starting at #100 overall, they got four hits with consecutive picks – Bader, Hicks, DeJong and Helsley. Only one was an extra selection, used on the only high schooler, Hicks.

    In that same range in 2017, the take was Hurst, Robertson and Kirtley.

    #43076

    bccran
    Participant

    Been looking up the stats of draftees every year right after the draft, and there has been a real void of players with power.
    Their model seems to have mostly been to bulk up on pitching and trade that pitching to fill position slots as needed. Did get enthused, though, when they drafted
    Bader and DeJong in the 3rd and 4th rounds in 2015. Both had exhibited some power in college. Hope they find more of the same in the first 5 picks this year.

    #43084

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    This is from the Red Baron over at VEB on the pick of Evan Mendoza in ’17. So far its turned out to be a lucky selection. The red baron is impressed enough to put Mendoza at #21 on his top prospect list.

    The Cards snagged Mendoza in the eleventh round this summer, long past when his talent probably would have dictated he go, and it’s honestly a little bit of a mystery why that would be to me. Most times, when you look at a player whose draft stock falls somewhat, there’s an easy answer. A bad draft year campaign, or the threat of not signing, or a nagging physical issue that seems to hang over the player’s head. In the case of Mendoza, though, I’d be lying if I told you I understood how and why he lasted until the eleventh for the Cardinals to pull. I don’t really get it. I’m glad he did, though.

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by  14NyquisT.
    #43089

    gscottar
    Participant

    The Cardinals and Cubs have clearly been built completely different. Whereas the Cubs focused on drafting and developing elite position players and then add pitching through FA and trades, we have done the opposite by drafting and developing good pitching and adding position players later.

    Of course we have developed some good OF’s and C’s but the jury is still out on whether they are elite. The same goes with Delvin Perez.

    I would be in favor of drafting as many power position players as we can. We need to balance things out a bit.

    #43090

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Mendoza is interesting for sure. #21 is aggressive, but not crazy. As a reference, Derek ranked him #24 and I put him lower at #27. The community here was less impressed, putting him at #31.

    He clearly benefited from his initial placement in the NYPL. His MWL line was far more ordinary, however. In fact, his .286 OBP was concerning to me, though his power came across. I am going to wait to get excited until he hits well in full-season ball.

    #43093

    gscottar
    Participant

    The MLB site does not have Mendoza in our top 30 but I don’t know how up to date that is.

    #43095

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    gscottar, I think you are a couple of years late in your suggestion to spend more on hitting. Look at what they did in the 2016 July 2nd international class and since. The hitting at the lower levels is now ahead of the pitching – to the point I am worried about the pitching. Overall, the pitching in short season in 2017 was not all that good.

    This is masked by the wealth of talent across the board at Memphis and Springfield.

    #43097

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    The MLB Pipeline site has not yet published its new team list for 2018. They just took guys off the 2017 list who were traded and added others to keep the total at 30 and make it look fresher than it really is. But you are correct, they did not choose to add Mendoza – at least yet.

    #43102

    gscottar
    Participant

    Yes we had a good draft in 2016 but it seems to me the only position players from that class that project to be highly productive big leaguers are Perez and Knizer. That could change of course.

    #43104

    14NyquisT
    Participant

    During the voting I had Mendoza at #25. I updated on 1/31/18 and now have him at #21. (I did not leave #11 open).

    ps. I don’t have much regard for the MLB pipeline. They are usually lagging even when they update.

    #43109

    bccran
    Participant

    Knowing that young players can develop more power as they mature, let’s look at how many players on full season teams in the system hit 15 or more home runs in 2017. I think these are correct.

    Memphis –

    Wisdom – 31
    O’Neill – 31
    Bader – 20

    Springfield –

    Wilson – 17 (gone in Rule V draft)
    A. Garcia – 16

    Palm Beach –

    Young – 17

    Peoria –

    Trosclair – 15

    How about players on the short season clubs who had 10 home runs or more.

    State College –

    None. The most any player hit was 4.

    Johnson City –

    None. The most any player hit was 7.

    GCL Cardinals –

    None. The most anyone hit was 4.

    Seems like there’s a serious lack of power in the system.

    #43112

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    gscottar, to clarify, when I said July 2nd 2016 and since, I was also referring to international spending. They spent millions on Cuban hitters Machado, Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, etc. – way more than on pitching – and it shows.

    #43113

    858booyah
    Participant

    Well the strategy of developing pitching works if you spend the money on outside Free Agents and trades who move the needle towards postseason success.

    I’m a little hesitant on the offense and suspect on the pitching and defense but if i had to guess on which part of the team is going to show up almost every night. Its the offense if we can get some repeat performances and keep Fowler in the lineup.

    #43128

    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Shhhh. Don’t mention the “F” word! 😉

    #43132

    mudville
    Participant

    I don’t understand how a 21 year old kid’s defense can regress so much. Something about that doesn’t make sense, IMO. Some of the plays he was making in that video were highlight reel caliber plays. I’d be willing to take a chance on Beer unless there is a clear explanation for his regressed defense. Could it be that he just doesn’t want to play for a team that is tanking. Unlikely.

    #43138

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Other names to watch:

    From MLB Pipeline

    From Baseball America

    From 2080 Baseball

    Like Brian, I expect the Cardinals to go heavily after pitching the first 3 rounds, like they did two years ago.

    #43144

    PadsFS
    Participant

    gscottar

    The Cardinals and Cubs have clearly been built completely different. Whereas the Cubs focused on drafting and developing elite position players and then add pitching through FA and trades, we have done the opposite by drafting and developing good pitching and adding position players later.

    Actually the Cubs have been drafting extremely heavy on pitching under Theo….except for their 1st round (top 10) picks (Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, Happ) In fact, 43 of top 55 picks (first ten rounds) have been on pitchers in the last five-six years. Of course, this doesn’t account for rounds 11-15, when we have seemed to go over-slot on a few solid pitching prospects in the past. I don’t know enough about the Cubs to know if that’s what they do as well.

    But with the Cubs, every single time, their pitchers are not developing (Sands, Johnson, Stinnett, Underwood, Hudson, Norwood). They went even MORE in on pitching this past draft and got Little and Lange, who both look promising (Cardinal-like).

    They also have traded some of the few better ones. Paul Blackburn landed them Mike Montgomery. Dylan Cease helped land them Quintana. They don’t get anything pitching-wise from the int’l side, although Jimenez (Quintana) and Torres (Chapman) have been ‘cashed in’ for pitching help.

    The primary issue has been that the guys that the Cardinals have come to count on aren’t developing for the Cubs. Their best pitching prospect is Alzolay, who’s on par with Helsley or Fernandez imo.

    #43149

    gscottar
    Participant

    You are correct Pads. Epstein and Hoyer have both publicly admitted that the one failure they have had since taking over the Cubs is developing home grown pitching. In their tenure I think they have only have had one pitcher they drafted make it to the big leagues (Zastrysny), although Hendricks came up through their system following a trade.

    Hopefully the Cubs will eventually be forced to spend so much money on their rotation that they won’t be able to keep all of their position players.

    #43150

    Bw52
    Participant

    Why ccan`t the Cards draft big bats ?The system is poor power-wise.You can have all the OBP guys you want but somebody still has to be at least a threat to hit the ball out of the park.Before anyone jumps up and hollers ” look at the SF Giants a couple of years back” do you really think Cards could do that?IMHO you can describe the Cards system as heavy on the pitching,decent speed and very poor power.

    #43153

    Cardinals2016
    Participant

    Why ccan`t the Cards draft big bats ?

    They can, but they prioritize pitching in the first few rounds, and when they do draft a hitter, they prioritize their ability to draw walks over their ability to hit for power.

    #43540

    Cardinals27
    Participant

    The needs seem to be power and left handed pitching. I sure hope they draft a 3rd baseman or outfielder with power, as a first baseman only, limits potential. For a team (not on 40 man roster) to have so few lefties is disturbing. I can think of only 3 in AA or better, who look interesting, Gomber, Evans and Littrel. But Littrel, who I was high on last year, had the suspension and was not particularly good in 2017. If it wasn’t for the lack of lefties he may not even be around in 2018.

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