All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: Extending the Streak

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

As is the case each Friday prior to the St. Louis Cardinals pregame show, I joined Ken Miller and Jim Brinson on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the St. Louis Cardinals.

This week, I joined the show from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. We discussed the Cardinals recent improved play, having won seven of eight, the Pete Rose pardon issue as well as the decline of the once-proud, now last-place Phillies.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller and Jim Brinson (6:06)

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Where are the Cardinals’ Winning Streaks?

“Winning is contagious,” as the old line goes.

So it is for the current edition of the Memphis Redbirds, winners of nine consecutive games. That matches the team-record winning streak established by the 2000 Pacific Coast League Champion Redbirds. It also ties the longest such stretch in the Triple-A circuit this season.

Compare that to the parent St. Louis Cardinals. “Never too low, but never too high” might be the most applicable catch phrase for manager Mike Matheny’s third club.

Forget about nine wins, or even six. The 2014 Cardinals have logged just one winning streak of five games, and it was over two months ago. For that matter, June 17 also marked the end of the team’s most recent four-game winning streak.

The latest attempt by St. Louis to take a fourth consecutive “W” fell by the wayside due to the Kevin SiegristJedd Gyorko grand slam on Saturday. It was the team’s fifth failed attempt to string together four victories since June 17.

Just as nine is the longest streak in the PCL, so it is in the National League in 2014. Milwaukee did it as part of its fast start in April, followed by Atlanta at the end of June into the start of July.

On the “not too low” side of the coin, this year’s Cardinals have dropped as many as four consecutive games just once. It was in the third through sixth games after the All-Star break, with the first three at home. Number one was against the Dodgers, the next two versus Tampa and the last at Wrigley Field on July 25.

I am not sure what it is about post-break play, but at that same time last season, the Cardinals began their season-worst seven-game skid.

Yet, when it mattered, the 2013 Cards came through, with September winning streaks of five and six games on their way to a sizzling 19-8 final month, 97 wins and the Central Division title. That +11 win month is a bigger cushion than the 2014 Cardinals have accrued through their first 4 1/2 months combined.

All is far from lost this year. The team remains well-positioned in the Wild Card race, but the best way to catch the Brewers is to alter their season-long trajectory – by winning more just a few more than they lose.

The Cardinals’ record by month this season has remained on a very even keel. A summary is as follows:

April +1 games
May +3
June +1
July +2
August to date +3

10 games over .500 is an ok enough place to be, but is still tenuous. At the end of the schedule, an 86-76 record may or may not be enough to move into post-season play.

The best way to truly create some space is to find that Memphis Redbirds formula and crack off a long winning streak. We will see if the 2014 Cardinals have it in them.

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Tuesday Marks FOX Sports Midwest’s Annual “This One’s for You”

Fox Sports Midwest release

What:   This One’s For You is FOX Sports Midwest’s annual Cardinals telecast to local troops deployed overseas. It connects the soldiers with Cardinals Nation and their families watching from Busch Stadium and at home.

Who:    220th Engineer Company of the Missouri National Guard
Families of the 220th
Cardinals Nation

Where:  On FOX Sports Midwest | At Busch Stadium | At Kandahar Air Field, Afghanistan

When:  Tuesday, Aug. 19 during the telecast of the Cardinals home game vs. Cincinnati. Pregame coverage starts at 6:30 p.m. CT. The game starts at 7 p.m. in St. Louis and 4:30 a.m. in Kandahar.

Details: The telecast of the Cardinals home game vs. Cincinnati on Tuesday, Aug. 19 will be shown to troops overseas via American Forces Network (AFN). FOX Sports Midwest will interact, via satellite, with members of the 220th Engineer Company of the Missouri National Guard watching in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

The Festus-based 220th is deployed to support Operation Enduring Freedom. More than 150 soldiers have deployed with the unit to southwest Asia, conducting deconstruction operations in Afghanistan.  Another company deployed from western Missouri, the 276th Engineer Company of Pierce City is expected to join them to watch the game.

More than 1,000 family members and friends of the 220th will attend the game at Busch Stadium, and some of those individuals will be shown and interviewed on FOX Sports Midwest. Most will wear white t-shirts and bring signs to support their loved ones.

Cardinals fans are encouraged to participate by Tweeting greetings with the hashtag #ThisOnesForYou, some of which will be shown on TV.

This is FOX Sports Midwest’s 10th year producing a This One’s For You telecast (the first came in 2005). It’s produced in coordination with FOX Sports Supports, a nationwide effort which supports our military. It is made possible through the assistance of the Cardinals, the Missouri National Guard, American Forces Network and the Army DVIDS unit.

Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: Making Hay at Home?

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

As is the case each Friday prior to the St. Louis Cardinals pregame show, I joined Ken Miller and Jim Brinson on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the St. Louis Cardinals.

We discussed the instant replay rule and the challenges it brings before getting into the aftermath of the Cardinals disappointing road trip and current homestand against San Diego and Cincinnati.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller and Jim Brinson (5:40)

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Cardinals Hall of Fame Induction on FOX Sports Midwest

FOX Sports Midwest release

FOX Sports Midwest will televise the St. Louis Cardinals 2014 Hall of Fame induction ceremony seven times on tape delay. This one-hour special will debut Sunday, August 17 at approximately 5 p.m., immediately following live coverage of the Cardinals game vs. San Diego. A list of air dates is below.

Cardinals legends Marty Marion, Mike Shannon, Willie McGee and Jim Edmonds will be formally enshrined, joining the 22 inaugural members of the Cardinals Hall of Fame.

The live ceremony will take place the day before, Saturday, August 16 at 10:30 a.m. in FOX Sports Midwest Live! at Ballpark Village. Tickets for the event cost $18. per person.

FOX Sports Midwest Cardinals play-by-play announcer Dan McLaughlin will host.

KMOX will also air a tape delay broadcast of the ceremony, on Saturday from 4 to 5 p.m.

Cardinals Hall of Fame induction special on FOX Sports Midwest

Sunday, Aug. 17 at approximately 5 p.m. (after Cardinals Live postgame)
Monday, Aug. 18 at 5:30 p.m.
Monday, Aug. 18 at approximately 11 p.m. (after Cardinals Live postgame)
Wednesday, Aug. 20 at approximately 10 p.m. (after Cardinals Live postgame)
Saturday, Aug. 23 at approximately 10 p.m. (after Cardinals Live postgame)
Wednesday, Aug. 27 at 10 p.m.
Saturday, Aug. 30 at 5 p.m.
Times Central

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NL Central is MLB’s Tightest Four-Team Race Since 2006

Coming into play on Tuesday, the St. Louis Cardinals had temporarily lost their grasp of the second-place spot in the National League Central Division that they had held almost the entire season to date.

At three games back of front-runner Milwaukee, St. Louis was also a half-game behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cincinnati Reds were just 2 1/2 behind the Cardinals.

NLC – 8 12 2014 W L W-L% GB RS RA pythW-L%
MIL 66 53 0.555 515 479 0.536
PIT 63 55 0.534 2.5 501 487 0.514
STL 62 55 0.530 3 436 444 0.491
CIN 60 58 0.508 5.5 450 420 0.534
CHC 50 67 0.427 15 452 501 0.449

Because of their run-scoring problems, the Cardinals do not fare well in the Pythagorean win-loss projections.

Injuries have affected key players on all four contending clubs, with the Brewers having lost Matt Garza during his last start against St. Louis. The Bucs just placed reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen on the disabled list, while the Reds are hanging tough despite both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips shelved. Of course, St. Louis is missing Michael Wacha and Yadier Molina.

A poster on The Cardinal Nation message board asserted that no division race had ever been this tightly-bunched this late in the season. His point was that as such, the current NL Central situation has no precedent.

I suspected it was not true. Fortunately, I have a secret weapon, researcher Tom Orf, on call to back me up.

I asked Tom if any divisions in any league on this date had ever been more bunched than the four teams in the NL Central today. It turns out that the answer is not only “yes,” but the last time it happened, five teams were involved instead of the four currently.

It was in 2006, a memorable season for the Cardinals, as they won their first World Series since 1982 after taking the NL Central by a game and a half over Houston.

The 2006 NL West featured a wilder race. Not just were the usual suspects in contention, the Dodgers and Giants, but so were the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies. All five clubs were clustered within 5 ½ games of each other on August 12, 2006.

NLW – 8 12 2006 W L W-L% GB RS RA pythW-L%
LAD 60 56 0.517 584 532 0.543
ARI 58 57 0.504 1.5 573 578 0.496
SDP 58 57 0.504 1.5 514 516 0.498
COL 56 59 0.487 3.5 524 503 0.519
SFG 54 61 0.470 5.5 527 536 0.492

Looking at runs scored and allowed, leading to a Pythagorean won-loss percentage, only partially signaled the end result in 2006.

The final six weeks of the regular season proved to be most interesting. The gap between the two haves and the three have-nots grew wide, very wide.

By the time the smoke cleared, Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco all managed to win just 76 games, and fell to double-digits behind the co-winners from San Diego and Los Angeles. That spread became so great that even if there had been six NL Wild Cards that year, the Snakes, Rockies and Giants all would still have stayed home.

NLW – 2006 Season W L W-L% GB
SDP 88 74 0.543
LAD 88 74 0.543
SFG 76 85 0.472 11.5
ARI 76 86 0.469 12
COL 76 86 0.469 12

Though the Padres won the tiebreaker with the Dodgers, that meant they had to face the Cards in the NLDS. The Dodgers also exited in the first round, at the hands of the New York Mets.

Why did I go through this?

First of all, I dug in to refute an assertion I doubted. But more importantly, we can learn from this. The 2006 NL West race taught us that even a tighter division than the 2014 NL Central can sort itself out very clearly in the final weeks – but the end result may not be predictable.

In other words, whether the 2014 Cardinals will follow the lead of the haves or have-nots remains to be seen.

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The Game that Never Happened in a Season that Never Concluded

Every August 11, I feel sadness tinged with anger.

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the final day of baseball in the 1994 season. The battle between wealthy owners and wealthy players over issues about which most baseball fans do not care – how to split an ever-growing money pie – reached an impasse that led to an extended player walkout.

August 11, 1994 was an especially painful day for me, personally, as well, with the St. Louis Cardinals’ just-completed series in Baltimore this past weekend providing another reminder.

My brother in law is a dedicated Baltimore Orioles fan destined to live in the Midwest. Not only did he get to see his favorite club and player, Cal Ripken, rarely, it was almost always on the road at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.

The first of the new breed of stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, had opened in 1992 and was a smashing success. Against the backdrop of the club having set a new major league record for consecutive sellouts, in the spring of 1994, my brother in law told me how much he really wanted to see a game there.

I called in a major favor to arrange to buy a block of seven tickets to an upcoming Baltimore home game. To be a bit less intrusive, I offered that a mid-week contest would be fine. We made our flight and hotel reservations and planned a vacation to the area, with the ballgame the highlight.

While I would have preferred to see St. Louis play, there was at least one former Cardinal outfielder on each of the clubs. Tom Brunansky was a member of the visiting BoSox, while Lonnie Smith was on the Baltimore roster.

As the labor unrest in MLB grew that summer, the line for a strike was drawn in the sand. Without a resolution, the players would walk out following the games of Thursday, August 11.

That happened to be the very day printed on our tickets. At least we were going to get to see a game, even though it could be the last for some time.

It did not work out that way.

Rain crept into the Baltimore area that afternoon. Though the O’s and Red Sox managed to get the contest underway and play 1 ½ innings in the sprinkles, heavier rain halted the action. We huddled under the concourse roof for hours as the Orioles tried to the get in what would have been their final game of the 1994 season.

The game was finally called off around midnight, making our visit to Camden Yards officially non-existent. Canceled, not resumed, the play that night never officially happened.

The remainder of the regular season was eventually axed, as was the 1994 World Series. The battle between labor and management raged on until April 1995, causing significant damage to the game. Many fans stayed away for some time; others never came back.

Interestingly, that was also the case for the two ex-Cardinals. The game that did not officially occur turned out to be the final time both Smith and Brunansky suited up as major league players.

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Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: Baltimore Bound

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

As is the case each Friday prior to the St. Louis Cardinals pregame show, I joined Ken Miller on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the St. Louis Cardinals. Jim Brinson was away.

We discussed the aftermath of the Cardinals trade deadline activity and set up the weekend series in Baltimore.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller (7:29)

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Will 2014 Cardinals’ Run Scoring Mirror 1973 Mets?

The St. Louis Cardinals would be in the playoffs if the season ended on Thursday and are just one game out of the National League Central Division lead.

That seems quite improbable when noting that the club currently ranks 29th of 30 MLB teams in runs scored.

Inspired by discussion at The Cardinal Nation’s message board, I asked researcher Tom Orf if any club had finished 29th or 30th in run scoring and made the post-season since baseball’s most recent expansion in 1998.

The answer is “no.”

In fact, of the 32 teams to finish last or second-to-last in runs scored in those 16 years (1998-2013), only two managed to even post a winning record. They are the 86-76 2011 Giants, 29th in runs, and the 2003 Dodgers, a club that finished 85-77 despite finishing dead last in MLB in run scoring. Both stayed home in October.

Expanding the aperture to include last and second-to-last place run-scoring teams at any time, one has to go back over 40 years to find a playoff participant.

The 1973 New York Mets came on at the end to win the NL East Division despite an 82-79 record. Yogi Berra’s club scored the second-fewest runs in Major League Baseball that season, ranking 23rd of 24 clubs. Not surprisingly, those Mets were led by strong pitching, including future Hall of Famer Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and 1972 NL Rookie of the Year Jon Matlack.

Though the 1973 Mets defeated the heavily-favored Big Red Machine of Cincinnati in the NLCS, they fell in Game Seven of the World Series to the Oakland A’s, a club on its way to three consecutive titles.

The 2014 Cardinals could only hope to be so successful in October.

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Waino’s Big Year Slipping Away

Defending National League champion manager Mike Matheny gave the starting nod in the 2014 MLB All-Star Game to his ace, Adam Wainwright. That evening did not go to Waino’s liking, nor have his results since.

Prior to the break, the 32-year-old right-hander was 12-4 with a 1.83 ERA over 19 starts. Since then, in three starts, Wainwright is 1-2, 5.82. His strikeouts are down and his walks are way up.

In the meantime, Wainwright’s key rival, Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers continues to steam ahead. As the Cardinals’ star’s ERA rose to 2.26, the Dodger dropped his to 1.71. Kershaw has also increased his season win total to equal Wainwright at 13, but with four fewer losses.

As a result, ESPN’s Cy Young Award Predictor now has Kershaw firmly in the lead for the top pitching honor in the league. Wainwright has slipped all the way to third, just behind Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto.

The oddsmakers agree.

In new Cy Young Awards odds released Tuesday by bovada.lv, Kershaw has replaced Wainwright as the clear favorite with Cueto pulling even with Wainwright. A number of others have fallen away with one longer-shot joining since May, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner.

Odds to Win the 2014 NL Cy Young May 1 Aug 5
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 6/1 2/7
Adam Wainwright (STL) 7/2 5/1
Johnny Cueto (CIN) 15/2 5/1
Zack Greinke (LAD) 15/2 25/1
Madison Bumgarner (SF) NR 50/1
Jose Fernandez (MIA) 6/1 inj
Julio Teheran (ATL) 12/1
Kyle Lohse (MIL) 15/1
Tim Hudson (SF) 15/1
Ervin Santana (ATL) 15/1
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) 20/1
Gio Gonzalez (WAS) 20/1
Cliff Lee (PHI) 20/1
Lance Lynn (STL) 20/1
Michael Wacha (STL) 20/1
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) 25/1
Dan Haren (LAD) 33/1
Alfredo Simon (CIN) 33/1
Aaron Harang (ATL) 40/1

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Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: After the Trades

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

As is the case each Friday prior to the St. Louis Cardinals pregame show, I joined Jim Brinson on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the St. Louis Cardinals. Ken Miller was away.

We discussed the flurry of trade activity across MLB and specifically the impact of the St. Louis Cardinals’ deals for Justin Masterson and John Lackey as well as the loss of Joe Kelly and Allen Craig.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Jim Brinson (7:49)

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Cardinals Make Hall of Fame Induction a Pay Event

While voting for the inaugural class of modern era players to be inducted into the new St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame was free, the actual ceremony will not be.

$18 per person tickets are now on sale for the 2014 Cardinals Hall of Fame induction ceremony as Jim Edmonds, Marty Marion, Willie McGee and Mike Shannon formally enter the Hall on August 16.

The festivities will take place inside FOX Sports Midwest Live! at Ballpark Village on Saturday, August 16 at 10:30 a.m. All tickets are general admission-standing room only.

Each ticket holder will receive a special Hall of Fame Induction Day issue of the Cardinals Gameday Magazine and a limited edition print of the 2014 inductees. Tickets can be purchased online at www.cardinals.com/hof.

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Cardinals Telecasts Top-Ranked in St. Louis, No. 2 in MLB

The St. Louis Cardinals may have spent most of the 2014 season in second place, but their telecasts are tops by a huge margin.

From the start of the season on March 31 through July 24, St. Louis Cardinals telecasts on FOX Sports Midwest are the highest-rated and most-viewed programming on prime time television in St. Louis.

2014 Cardinals telecasts are averaging a 7.56 household rating and 95,000 households in prime time (the hours from 7 to 11 p.m.). That is 41 percent higher than No. 2-ranked KMOV-CBS during the same period, according to Nielsen data.

Prime time ratings average – St. Louis market

Rank Network HH Rtg
1 Cardinals on FOX Sports Midwest 7.56
2 4 KMOV CBS 5.35
3 5 KSDK NBC 4.42
4 2 KTVI FOX 3.77
5 30 KDNL ABC 1.85
6 TBSC 1.33
7 11 KPLR CW 1.26
8 TNT 1.15
9 ESPN 1.13
10 HIST 1.10

The Cardinals have the second-highest local TV ratings in all of Major League Baseball – 7.56 (all FOX Sports Midwest telecasts). That has them on pace to finish in the top three in MLB for the 15th consecutive season.

In an indication of the strength of MLB nationwide, in addition to the Cardinals, 11 other MLB teams were also the top programming in primetime across all of television, including broadcast, in their markets.

MLB Games on Regional Sports Networks No. 1 Primetime in Market

Market/Team Ratings Households
Detroit Tigers 8.38 156,000
St. Louis Cardinals 7.56 95,000
Pittsburgh Pirates 7.56 89,000
Cincinnati Reds 7.01 64,000
Cleveland Indians 6.73 100,000
Milwaukee Brewers 6.16 56,000
Baltimore Orioles 6.03 66,000
Kansas City Royals 5.93 56,000
Seattle Mariners 5.72 106,000
Boston Red Sox 5.64 137,000
San Francisco Giants 4.86 122,000
Phoenix/Arizona Diamondbacks 3.92 73,000

* All data provided by Nielsen for the period of 3/31/14-7/24/14

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Cardinals Log a Losing Record in Series Openers

Across the game, we have seen how some starting pitchers seem to struggle in their first inning of work before settling down. When that occurs, invariably, the pre-game routine is altered in an attempt to improve the early results.

Well, the St. Louis Cardinals need to try something new as they open each series. After a 3-1 loss to San Diego on Tuesday night, the Cards have dropped the first game in each of their last three series.

Despite being seven games over .500 overall on the season, the club has posted a losing record in series-openers in 2014 at 17-18.

The good news is the Cards get better as they go, with a 19-15 record in second games and are even better at 19-11 in game threes. The final match of four-game series present another problem, but are rare.

The club is currently on pace for an 86-76 season, but their game two pace would get them to 91 wins and game three winning percentage of .633 would translate to 103 victories.


Actual


162-game pace
Series Wins Losses Percent
Wins Losses
Game 1 17 18 0.486 79 83
Game 2 19 15 0.559 91 71
Game 3 19 11 0.633 103 59
Game 4 1 5 0.167 27 135
total
56 49 0.533 86 76

Those 18 series-opening losses are spread among 10 different pitchers. Though it might be tempting to point an accusing finger at Shelby Miller’s team-leading four losses in series openers, ace Adam Wainwright is right behind at three.

The real problem is the offense, which averaged under 2.2 runs per game in those 18 defeats, including being held scoreless five times.

Overall, we have yet to see these 2014 Cardinals get too low, but they also have not gotten very high, either. The club has no winning streaks of six games or more, but also had never lost more than three consecutive games until last week’s four-game skid.

While an extended winning streak would cure all, it seems unlikely at this time given the season-long offensive slumber in which the Cardinals remain.

A realistic target from which the club could see measurable and results would be if the offense could simply find some way to get out of the blocks better as their series begin. John Mabry, how about it?

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Steroids Should Have Been Put Aside on Cooperstown Sunday

Sunday was arguably the pinnacle of Tony La Russa’s fifty years in professional baseball – his induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Unfortunately, some tried to mar the proceedings by questioning La Russa’s worthiness for Cooperstown due to his years managing the Oakland A’s and St. Louis Cardinals during the heyday of steroids-fueled sluggers Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire.

The criticism seemed ill-timed as this subject has been discussed and debated before – and it will continue to be long in the future. However, the Hall decision had already been made and would not be reversed no matter how much mud was thrown around.

Extreme behavior sometimes generates comparable action in response. Such was the case when at least one La Russa defender tried to draw the parallel of fellow inductee Joe Torre having managed Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez.

That line seems way off-base to me. While the three players were all connected with steroids, they did not establish the identity of Torre’s Yankees clubs as did the Bash Brothers for La Russa’s A’s. Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter were the face of those New York clubs – men whose reputations have been beyond reproach.

Clemens and A-Rod played the majority of their MLB years elsewhere and Pettitte’s one incident with steroids is akin to Rick Ankiel’s, in my opinion – a minor blip in an otherwise admirable career.

In my view, several of the personality traits that helped make La Russa so successful worked against him on the steroids issue. His unwavering loyalty to his players included defending McGwire, often angrily, against his accusers for several decades. Long past the point it seemed appropriate, the defense continued – even after Big Mac’s own brother confirmed the story and up until McGwire finally came clean.

The specifics surrounding McGwire seemed to paint La Russa as being in general denial about a widespread problem in baseball that seemed to become obvious to most everyone else long before.

I don’t recall the public posture taken by Torre, or Bobby Cox, for that matter, being comparable.

A far more interesting question, in my view, is if there should be greater consistency in Hall qualification for players versus managers active during that time. Philosophically, I suspect so, but as with most challenging issues, the devil would be in the details.

The steroids era will continue to be debated for years into the future as will the role of those involved, but it should have been set aside on La Russa’s big day.

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Help United Way While Helping Yourself to Cardinals Baseball

If you are looking for a good weekend to treat the family to St. Louis Cardinals baseball before school starts up again, I recommend August 15-16. The opponent at Busch Stadium will be the San Diego Padres, but what is happening off the field will also be a major attraction.

On Saturday, August 16, the Cardinals Hall of Fame Class of 2014 will be inducted – Jim Edmonds, Willie McGee, Mike Shannon and Marty Marion. To commemorate the event, the first 25,000 fans 16 or over will receive a collectible 2014 Cardinals Hall of Fame Inductees Plaque.

With a special ticket offer for Chris Carpenter bobblehead night on Friday, you can make it a big weekend without killing the bank account.

Friday, August 15 is also United Way Night at the Ballpark. Special game tickets range from $17 for Pavilion level seats to $22 for Left Field Loge seating and include a voucher for a free hot dog and soda. A portion of the ticket sales will benefit United Way’s 2014 fundraising campaign.

The United Way of Greater St. Louis’ contributors, volunteers and partner agencies provide a variety of health and human services to children, adults and families throughout 16 counties in Missouri and Illinois.

For more information and to purchase these special tickets, visit HelpingPeople.org/events.

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Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: HoF, Lottery and Cubs

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

A day earlier than usual due to Friday afternoon’s game, I joined Ken Miller and Jim Brinson on Thursday afternoon on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the St. Louis Cardinals.

We discussed this weekend’s Hall of Fame ceremony and the relative merits of each of the managers to be inducted. The Competitive Balance Lottery and Theo Epstein’s complaints about it were on tap as well as a look ahead to the series between the Cards and Cubs at Wrigley Field this weekend.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller and Jim Brinson (11:19)

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Will a Devalued Taveras Follow Rasmus’ Path Out of Town?

I don’t think there is any doubt that Oscar Taveras is the St. Louis Cardinals’ most celebrated position prospect since Colby Rasmus.

I have to admit that I am holding a fear that would connect the two outfielders in another way.

I wonder if Cardinals manager Mike Matheny’s curious disuse of Taveras could be the prelude of a repeat of one of what I consider to be the most distasteful episodes in recent team history – the devaluation of Rasmus.

In the summer of 2011, then-manager Tony La Russa let his frustrations with the young outfielder become front and center in the public eye. A major irritation seemed to be Rasmus taking hitting instruction from his father rather than his coaches. La Russa touched on the subject here, on July 10 of that year.

The last straw may have been drawn a couple of weeks later. On July 26, La Russa told KSDK’s Frank Cusamano on camera that Rasmus was not listening to Cardinals coaches and his struggles were a direct result. At that juncture, my poll question here was whether readers felt the manager and outfielder could coexist. 58 percent of the voters sensed the damage was irreparable.

Despite the repeated insistence of general manager John Mozeliak over an extended period of time that Rasmus was not on the block, the big trade with Toronto was announced the very next day, on July 27.

As I analyzed the transactions that evening, I was not alone in my concern that the Cardinals did not receive full value for Rasmus and wondered aloud if anything positive came from La Russa’s frustration over his young player becoming a public matter. (I also do not hold Rasmus without responsibility as his performance late in his tenure with the team was erratic.)

We will never know if Mozeliak was just being coy and planned to deal Rasmus all along. If that was the case, we will also never know if the Cardinals could have received even more in return for Rasmus had La Russa remained quiet.

Instead of the prior paragraph’s scenario, what if Mozeliak was telling the truth – that he did not intend to make a deal – until his feet were held to the fire one too many times by La Russa? That is what I feared at the time and still wonder about to this day.

Ultimately, it worked out fine in the short term, as the Cardinals went on to win the 2011 World Championship with the help of pitchers acquired in return for Rasmus. Further, the outfielder has never lived up to his lofty potential during his time with Toronto.

How does this relate to today, you might ask?

Just as I wondered about a potential disconnect between field manager and general manager in 2011, the feelings are back today.

Prior to Taveras’ most recent call up from Triple-A, Mozeliak, the only common thread between 2011 and now, seemed very clear as to his intentions. Just 30 days ago, about a week before he brought the recently-turned 22-year-old back to St. Louis, the GM shared the following with a group of Cardinals bloggers.

“Mozeliak said he told Matheny that if Taveras is with the Cardinals ‘you have to play him’,” reported Mark Tomasik at his blog, RetroSimba.

Unlike Rasmus, we have no idea if Taveras is not open to instruction from his coaches. Taking Matheny’s Tuesday remarks at face value, his staff is apparently not in that line of work.

“We’ve got to do what we can to win today; we’re not here in the development business,” the manager told reporters prior to the contest, one in which Taveras did not start for the sixth time in eight games.

Apparently feeling the daily pressure to win, what Matheny is saying is that he believes his team has a better chance with slumping Allen Craig playing most days over the unproven Taveras. Matt Holliday and Matt Adams are rarely taking days off, closing off another avenue for Taveras to play. Though the Cards had Taveras take a few turns in centerfield, that experiment now seems in mothballs, as well.

Unlike others who are writing in depth about the subject, I am not going to go into detail here why I think Taveras should see more time in the Cardinals lineup. Suffice it to say, I share that opinion. (Update: Rob Rains makes the playing time case eloquently here.) I am not going to go into the tradeoffs in acquiring Giancarlo Stanton or David Price. Sports on Earth’s Will Leitch covered the latter exceptionally well here.

It should not be forgotten that as a teenager in the minors, Taveras had hustle and motivation issues at times. He also was the target of veiled accusations that he did not return from his 2013 ankle injury as aggressively as some thought he should. To the extent one gives credence to these, one might consider that Taveras may have also hurt his own value.

In a way, I am almost glad the situation is unfolding this way, as I believe Taveras will eventually deliver on his promise regardless of his early use by his manager or any other factors. Maybe by underachieving early, Taveras will keep himself in the organization long enough to prove himself.

Bottom line, I can deal with the current situation – unless Mozeliak ends up dealing away Taveras, that is. Then, I would once again wonder how much more the return could have been had his manager’s preference not been so obvious – to us and prospective trade partners alike.

What do you think should happen and will happen over the next week? Sound off below.

[poll id=”210″]

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Join TCN and TCN Blog in Supporting Alana Subleski

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Alana Subleski, niece and God-daughter of Peoria Chiefs manager Joe Kruzel, suffered a brain aneurysm. Alana has incurred costly medical expenses and has a long recovery ahead.

The Chiefs are hosting an online auction with baseball-related items donated from across the country. 100 percent of the proceeds will benefit Alana. Kruzel and the St. Louis Cardinals organization would appreciate your help by bidding on the items.

Among the items listed on the Chiefs auction website are baseballs signed by Hall of Famers Ozzie Smith, Whitey Herzog, Bruce Sutter and Lou Brock, game used items from Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter, a signed Ozzie Smith glove, signed Willie McGee Cardinals jersey, signed Pedro Alvarez Pirates jersey and much more.

Also among the items to bid on is a three-month subscription to The Cardinal Nation. If you already subscribe, give it as a gift to another Cardinals fan.

Please consider participating if you have the means. Many items expire this Wednesday, so do not wait!

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Draw a Bulls Eye on Cardinals Hitters

During our data give and take analyzing the first half of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2014 season, Tom Orf made an aside. The researcher noted the unusually high number of hit by pitches Cardinals hitters have absorbed this season.

Never before (at least since 1914) have Cardinals hitters taken first base 50 times after being plunked prior to the break as is the case this year.

To help put that into perspective, the 2013 club had 37 before the break after just 24 the year before. In other words, hit by pitches have doubled over the last two first halves.

Another way to look at it is that during the decade prior to 2014, Cardinals batters were hit by pitches an average of 29 times during the first half. The count ranged from 40 in 2006 to just 18 in 2004. Obviously, this season blew that out of the water.

Only four times in team history were as many as 40 hit before the break. In addition to 2014 and 2006, the others were 47 in 2003 and 41 in 2000.

Looking around the National League this season, 13 of the other 14 teams have experienced fewer hit batters than St. Louis. The only other team to fare worse is Pittsburgh with 54. However, in a virtual standoff, the Bucs’ pitchers hit 52 opposing batters themselves.

Following is the National League differential between a team’s own players hit (BHP – batter hit by pitcher) and opposing players they hit (PHB – pitcher hit batter) for the first half.

Tony La Russa, usually always one to retaliate, would almost surely be disappointed by the results. The Pirates, with a differential of 24, is the only NL team other than St. Louis at 14 to have a negative imbalance greater than five.

CLUB BHP CLUB PHB CLUB BHP PHB Difference
PITTSBURGH 54 PITTSBURGH 52 MILWAUKEE 45 21 24
ST. LOUIS 50 PHILADELPHIA 37 ST. LOUIS 50 36 14
MILWAUKEE 45 ST. LOUIS 36 ARIZONA 31 26 5
WASHINGTON 34 CINCINNATI 33 ATLANTA 24 20 4
ARIZONA 31 CHICAGO 33 WASHINGTON 34 30 4
CINCINNATI 31 MIAMI 31 PITTSBURGH 54 52 2
CHICAGO 31 WASHINGTON 30 LOS ANGELES 26 25 1
PHILADELPHIA 27 COLORADO 30 NL average 31 30 1
LOS ANGELES 26 SAN FRANCISCO 28 CHICAGO 31 33 -2
SAN FRANCISCO 26 NEW YORK 28 CINCINNATI 31 33 -2
NEW YORK 26 SAN DIEGO 27 NEW YORK 26 28 -2
COLORADO 25 ARIZONA 26 SAN FRANCISCO 26 28 -2
ATLANTA 24 LOS ANGELES 25 COLORADO 25 30 -5
MIAMI 21 MILWAUKEE 21 SAN DIEGO 21 27 -6
SAN DIEGO 21 ATLANTA 20 MIAMI 21 31 -10
TOTALS 472 TOTALS 457 PHILADELPHIA 27 37 -10
NL average 31 NL average 30

In terms of individual Cardinals batters hit most frequently, the 50 are spread across 13 players. Matt Holliday leads with 10, followed by Jon Jay at seven, Matt Carpenter at six and Yadier Molina at five.

On the pitching side, Michael Wacha has five and Adam Wainwright has four. No other Cardinals hurler hit more than three opposing batters during the first half.

So what might be the reason for the Cardinals having the second-biggest team gap?

–      Could the opponents be proactively trying to address the 2013 Cardinals’ success with runners in scoring position?

–      Could Cardinals hitters be leaning over the plate more than before?

–      Are Cardinals pitchers not throwing inside enough?

–      Could opponents be taking advantage of Cardinals pitchers not always retaliating?

–      Is it nothing other than random coincidence?

What do you think? Sound off below.

Footnote: In the first post-break game, Jay was hit by the Dodgers’ Brandon League and Joe Kelly plunked Yasiel Puig in game two, so the gap remains a minus 14 on the season.

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Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: Coming Out of the Break

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

As usual, I joined Ken Miller on Friday afternoon prior to the St. Louis Cardinals pregame show on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the club. Jim Brinson was away.

We discussed the All-Star Game and set up the post-break schedule for the Cardinals, starting with the Dodgers series this weekend. The trade market was a topic covered as well as was the decision to go with a four-man rotation temporarily.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller (7:35)

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Cardinals First-Half Hitting Does Not Stand Test of Time

In the prior installment, we looked at how successful St. Louis Cardinals pitching had been during the first half of the 2014 regular season using several rate stats.

This time around, we will do the same thing for the Cardinals offense. Sadly, the story is a lot less positive.

If you have been around awhile like me, you may remember the offensively-challenged Cardinals clubs that took the field at the tail end of the 1980s and first half of the 1990s.

One has to go back that far to find a lower team batting average in the first half than the 2014’s team mark of .252. 24 years ago, in 1990, the year Whitey Herzog walked off the job in frustration, the Cards batted .248 before the break. That was the last year with a mark worse than 2014.

The current club’s on-base percentage of .318, slugging at .372 and OPS at .690 are the lowest since the 1992 club came in at .315, .365 and .680, respectively. That was still over two decades ago.

In terms of all-time comparison, at least in the last 101 years, the BA and OBP marks are firmly placed among the bottom 20. Slugging and OPS are firmly among the worst 25 percent of these seasons.

One has to hope the Cardinals bats will show more life in the second half.

Rank Year Lowest BA
Rank Year Lowest OBP
Rank Year
Lowest SLG
1986 0.228 1918 0.285 24 2014 0.372
1918 0.228 1966 0.292
1978 0.239 1916 0.294
1916 0.239 1978 0.295
Rank Year Lowest OPS
1917 0.241 1968 0.299 22 2014 0.690
1914 0.245 1917 0.301
1990 0.246 1986 0.304
1966 0.247 1964 0.308
1973 0.248 1919 0.310
1968 0.248 1965 0.311
1984 0.249 1988 0.314
1965 0.250 1990 0.315
13 2014 0.252 1992 0.315
1914 0.317
1972 0.317

16 2014 0.318

Thanks go out to researcher Tom Orf for the raw data pulls behind this report.

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Talking with Washington University on the Cardinals

This week, I was contacted by Nick Kauzlarich, senior editor at CardsBlog.com, a new blog run by Washington University students that focuses on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Nick had a handful of questions about the Cardinals season so far and what may be ahead after the break, both with the team and several of its key contributors. Queries about the trade deadline and Cy Young Award were also posed.

I provided my opinions here.


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Cardinals First-Half Pitching Compares Well

The mathematician in me has a hard time calling the segment of the major league season that just completed “the first half.” After all, the St. Louis Cardinals have already played 96 of their 162 regular season games or 59.3 percent of all games and would be at 97/59.9 percent except for a rainout.

With different lengths to each year’s “first half,” it is a worthless effort to compare first halves using any counting stats, such as hits, home runs, wins or strikeouts. However, rate stats can offer valid comparisons. (Thanks to researcher Tom Orf, I have first half data for the last 101 years, all the way back to 1914. Though in reality, before the All-Star Game was created in 1933, the delineation of halves may be up for debate.)

Here, we look at the 2014 Cardinals’ exceptional pitching staff. Compared to prior years, their team ERA of 3.42 is good but not great, ranking them in the 20s of 101.

Where the Cardinals pitching really stands out is their opponent batting average of .241 and the related on-base percentage of .307. That ranks seventh- and 11th-best, respectively, since 1914. The .241 batting average posted is lowest by a Cardinals pitching staff since 1966, almost 40 years.

Their opponent slugging percentage is least impressive of these slash stats, but still just missed the top quartile at 28th. Putting it all together in OPS, on-base plus slugging, the 2014 Cardinals staff ranks in the top 20 over the last 101 years.

The main question in my mind is whether it can be sustained for the remainder of the year given the injuries and workload some of pitchers have taken on.

Rank Year BA
Rank Year OBP
Rank Year SLG
1986 0.228 1918 0.285 24 2014 0.372
1918 0.228 1966 0.292
1978 0.239 1916 0.294
1916 0.239 1978 0.295 Rank Year OPS
1917 0.241 1968 0.299 22 2014 0.690
1914 0.245 1917 0.301
1990 0.246 1986 0.304
1966 0.247 1964 0.308
1973 0.248 1919 0.310
1968 0.248 1965 0.311
1984 0.249 1988 0.314
1965 0.250 1990 0.315
13 2014 0.252 1992 0.315
1914 0.317
1972 0.317
16 2014 0.318

Next time, we will take a quick look at the hitters.

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Cardinal Talk: KXnO FOX Sports Radio: Heading into the Break

Weekly St. Louis Cardinals-focused chat on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines.

As usual, I joined Ken Miller and Jim Brinson on Friday afternoon prior to the St. Louis Cardinals pregame show on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines in our weekly series to discuss the club.

We discussed the Cardinals up and down home stand, the recent roster changes and injuries and the Milwaukee series, to conclude the pre-All-Star segment of the schedule.

Once again in 2014, Cardinals followers in central Iowa are able to catch St. Louis Cardinals radio broadcasts on KXnO as well as my regular segment each week throughout the season, either over the air or via streaming. Or, if you miss it live, you can always catch the replay right here at The Cardinal Nation blog.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller and Jim Brinson (7:29)

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Lynn Joins Gibson, Dean in First-Half Win Success

Lance Lynn has his detractors, but they have been a lot quieter this season as the right-hander continues to rack up wins for the St. Louis Cardinals.

On Wednesday night, the 27-year-old defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates, winning his 10th game of the season in 19 starts and lowering his ERA to 3.14. (Lynn also has six losses and three no-decisions.)

The Indiana native joined Adam Wainwright (who has 11 victories) to give the Cardinals a pair of 10-game winners by the All-Star break for the second consecutive season and the only two times since 2005.

In one measure of consistency, Lynn has taken Wainwright even one better.

In all three of his seasons in the rotation, Lynn has logged a double-digit win total in the first half. In doing so, Lynn becomes the first Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson 44 years ago to string three such fast starts together.

In fact, at any time in team history, only three other Cardinals pitchers have ever had three straight 10-win performances before the break. Lynn is the first of the five to accomplish this so early in his career.

Two of the other four fast starters are Hall of Famers, with Gibson having joined Dizzy Dean in Cooperstown.

The full list follows.

St. Louis Cardinals pitchers, 10 or more wins by All-Star break, three consecutive seasons, team history

Lance Lynn 2012-14
Bob Gibson 1965-70
Gerry Staley 1951-53
Mort Cooper 1942-44
Dizzy Dean 1934-37

As always, thanks to researcher Tom Orf for the data pulls.

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Will Joe Kelly Be the Cardinals Wild Card?

The national rumor mill is hot with speculation that the St. Louis Cardinals are trying to acquire starting pitcher Jake Peavy from the Boston Red Sox.

Let’s assume for a moment that the rumors are accurate. What might it imply?

1)    There may be concerns about the viability of the current starting five of Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Joe Kelly.

2)    As a minimum, the identity of the current sixth starter is unclear. Marco Gonzales obviously needs more seasoning and Tyler Lyons has not been good since his stint on the disabled list.

3)    Of course, Michael Wacha is the wild card. If his injury was expected to clear up soon, going after another starter would seem totally unnecessary.

Or would it?

As we have seen in recent days, Mike Matheny has over-relied on closer Trevor Rosenthal. The manager seems very role-driven in his pen management. Is part of the overuse of Rosenthal a result of not having a clear eighth-inning man?

Former set-up man Martinez is in the rotation and another obvious alternative, lefty Kevin Siegrist, has not yet begun his rehab. Jason Motte has not yet returned to his former effectiveness and funky Pat Neshek, while an all-star, has been used selectively.

While the Cards could easily acquire another Edward Mujica, John Axford or Octavio Dotel at the deadline, they could also look in-house. I am not talking about Jorge Rondon or Eric Fornataro from Memphis, but instead redeploying Kelly.

It is a role in which he is familiar. Not only did Kelly close in college, he has pitched extensively in relief with St. Louis. 30 of his 64 Major League appearances have been out of the pen, including 12 games finished.

If Rosenthal struggles further down the stretch, having Kelly as the setup man and closer-in-reserve could prove to be a good move – if he is not needed in the rotation, that is.

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